Money, Banking, and Financial Marketsabout the foreign exchange market
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1. Chapter 8 International Trade Foreign Exchange Nations
engage in international trade for the same reason that individuals
engage in domestic trade Comparative Advantage Specialization &
Int. Trade The Foreign Exchange Improve productivity More
Consumption, Income Increase standard of living Market
International trade requires the exchange of currencies Currency
exchange is often regulated by government. Thomson/South-Western
2006 1 2 The Foreign Exchange Market The Foreign Exchange MarketThe
foreign exchange (ForEx) market is the market in International
capital flowswhich parties exchange national currencies The
acquisition of financial & real assets across national
bordersIt is not a public outcry auction market, but rather
operates as 90% of foreign exchange volume is associated witha
computer driven over-the-counter market capital flows (investment
markets) The direct or immediate participants (Dealers) U.S.
&The volume of activity has escalated dramatically in response
foreign commercial banks with international deposits &to the
growth in world trade volume in goods & services. foreign
branches The ultimate participants import & export firms,
tourists & other travelers, & financial entities seeking to
invest internationally. 3 4 The Foreign Exchange Rate The Foreign
Exchange RateThe price at which one nations currency is exchanged
for The price at which one nations currency is exchanged
foranothers is the foreign exchange rate anothers is the foreign
exchange rateAn exchange rate exists between each pair of nations
that An exchange rate exists between each pair of nations
thatengage in trade using different currencies engage in trade
using different currenciesA currency appreciates against other
currencies when a It depreciates against other currencies when when
a singlesingle unit of that currency buys more units of these
foreign unit of that currency buys less units of these foreign
currencycurrency Last month: THB 34.50 / $ Last month: $ 1.54 /
This month: THB 32.25 / $ This month: $ 1.33 / 5 6
2. Table 8-1 Figure 8-1 7 8 Fixed & Floating Exchange Rates
Spot & Forward Exchange Markets Fixed exchange rates : exchange
rates do not change& countries must act to maintain some
predetermined level of Spot transactions involve the exchange of
currenciesvalue for immediate or on the spot delivery & payment
Bretton Woods exchange rate system(adjustable-peg) The exchange
rate at which such transactions take place required countries get
IMF approval to change their exchange rates is called the spot
exchange rate. The system collapsed in the early 1970s Major
industrial states currencies currently float according tosupply
& demand for each currency Floating exchange rates : exchange
rates continuouslychange according to supply & demand in the
world 9 10marketplace. Spot & Forward Exchange Markets Forward
Transaction Forward transactions involve the purchase and sale of
Forward Contract Agreement toforeign currencies for delivery &
payment at some specific exchange Thai Bahtfuture date, at a price
specified in advance for USD The exchange rate at which these
forward transactions take place is the forward exchange rate Price:
At 33 Baht/USD Time: In the next 3 Forward exchange markets provide
hedging for months investors to avoid possible large losses due to
changes Amount: 100,000 Baht in the spot exchange rate. Sign ______
(today) 11 12
3. Spot Transaction Forward Transaction Watches Watches U.S.
Swiss U.S. Swiss Importer Pay S Fr 100,000 Exporter Importer Pay S
Fr 100,000 Exporter in 30 days in 30 daysToday Spot rate = S Fr
1.25 / USD Today Spot rate = S Fr 1.25 / USDExpected cost = USD
80,000 Today: Sign Forward Contract at S Fr 1.2489 / USD to deliver
in 30 daysOn the delivery day If that days Spot rate = S Fr 1.20
/USD Actual cost = USD 80,070(next 30 days)Then the Actual cost =
USD 83,333 On the delivery day Forward rate = S Fr 1.2489 / USD
Actual cost = USD 80,070 13 14 The Importance of the Exchange Rate
The Importance of the Exchange Rate A countrys exchange rate level
is important because, together with Exchange rate influences Trade
deficits/surplusdomestic prices, the exchange rate determines the
cost of the nations products in foreign nations influencing the
nations exports Because of the large influence of currency values
the cost of foreign products sold in the country influencing
imports upon trade, disputes among nations have arisenCurrency
Appre products look more expensive over one governments decisions
to intervene in the Export less foreign exchange market Import more
Managed float system.. Trade DeficitCurrency Depre products look
cheaper Export more Import less Trade Surplus 15 16 Exchange Rate
Determination Figure 8-2The foreign exchange market is highly
competitive many small buyers & small sellers relative to the
total market homogenous product--a national currencyIn Freely
Floating Exchange Rates, governments rarelyintervene exchange rates
are driven entirely by supply & demandIn a Managed Float (the
system in place today), governmentssometimes intervene in an effort
to prevent exchange ratemovements perceived to be excessive or
strongly at odds withnational interests. 17 18
4. The Supply & Demand Model The Supply & Demand Model
Demand Supply The demand curve for dollars stems from foreign
buyers The supply curve for dollars stems from Americans of
American goods & services, U.S. financial & real seeking to
purchase foreign goods & services, financial & assets real
assets The demand curve is downward sloping because, ceteris The
supply curve slopes upward because, given other factors, an
increase in the dollars value reduces the price paribus, a decline
in the price of $ makes everything from of foreign items in the
United States. the United States cheaper for foreign buyers. 19 20
Long-Run Exchange Rate Determinants Long-Run Exchange Rate
Determinants1. Relative Price Level Behavior (Inflation) 1.
Relative Price Level Behavior (Inflation) Nations with chronically
high inflation are likely to beNon-inflation factors weak-currency
nationsi.e., they are likely to see their 2. preferences &
product development (innovation) currencies depreciate over the
years against currencies of 3. productivity behavior (growth)
nations that experience lower inflation. 4. tariffs & quotas
(trade restrictions) 21 22 Figure 8-3 Increase in Japanese Prices
Purchasing Power Parity Theory S2$ The purchasing power parity
(PPP) theory says thatExchange Rate exchange rates adjust
completely to offset the effects of S1 $ different inflation rates
in two countries Under highly restrictive & unrealistic
conditions, PPP theory 132 would always be valid The law of one
price states that the cost of a single D2$ homogeneous good must be
the same to an American or a 120 foreigner, whether purchased at
home or abroad D 1$ Q$ 23 24
5. Purchasing Power Parity Theory Purchasing Power Parity
Theory Original exchange rate = 40 THB/USD Why PPP doesnt always
work in the real world In Thailand, 1 hamburger = 80 THB In the
real world, many products are not homogeneous in nature, some In
U.S., 1 hamburger = 2 USD goods are non-tradable, some goods enjoy
brand loyalty that keeps Thailand experiences inflation of 10%
their prices artificially high, and some goods sell at higher
prices simply In Thailand, 1 hamburger = 88 THB because of
consumers forces of habit. 1 hamburger in Thailand = 1 hamburger in
the U.S. 88 THB = 2 USD PPP theory works: The new exchange rate =
44 THB/USD well in accounting for major exchange rate movements 10%
Inflation in Thailand 10% depre in THB poorly in explaining
short-to-intermediate term changes 25 26 Figure 8-4 Long-Run
Exchange Rate Determinants Non-inflation factors 2. preferences
& product development (innovation) 3. productivity behavior
(growth) 4. tariffs & quotas (trade restrictions) 27 28
Long-Run Exchange Rate Determinants Long-Run Exchange Rate
Determinants2. Preferences & Product Development 3.
Productivity Japan produces new bread toaster improve in
productivity production costs fall Foreigners start importing this
new product Thai products have lower prices Foreigners demand more
Yen products look more attractive in world market Yen appreciates
more demand for THB THB appreciates 29 30
6. Long-Run Exchange Rate Determinants Long-Run Exchange Rate
Determinants 4. Tariffs and Quotas 4. Tariffs and Quotas U.S. puts
more tariffs more tax on U.S. puts more quotas imported products
less quantity of imported products Imported products have higher
prices U.S. people import less U.S. people import less supply less
USD supply less USD USD appreciates USD appreciates 31 32 Spot -
Forward Spot - Forward In your new business venture, you expect a
shipment of Swiss watches in What is the actual cost in $ if the
future spot rate = 5.8 S Fr/$ 90 days. Upon delivery 90 days from
now, you must pay the Swiss Answer : Actual Cost = 142,000 / 5.8 =
24,482.76 USD. company 142,000 Swiss francs. If you enter 90 days
Forward Contract and lock-in the forward rate at What risk are you
taking if you wait 90 days and then buy the needed 6.15 S Fr/$,
what is the expected cost? What is the actual cost? francs in the
spot market? Answer : Expected Cost = 142,000 / 6.15 = 23,089.43
USD. Answer : I will face the foreign exchange rate risk. If Swiss
francs is Actual Cost = 142,000 / 6.15 = 23,089.43 USD. appreciated
in next 90 days, I need to use more USD, to buy 142,000 What is the
benefit you get from entering Forward Contract? Swiss francs.
Answer : Forward exchange markets provide hedging for me to avoid
What is the expected cost in $ if the current spot rate = 6.3 S
Fr/$ possible large losses due to Swiss Francs appreciated in the
spot Answer : Expected Cost = 142,000/6.3 = 22,539.97 Swiss francs
exchange rate 33 34 More Exercise Suppose you are importer, you
expect a shipment of computers from United State of America in 60
days. Upon delivery 60 days from now, you must pay the US. company
200,000 USD.1. What is the expected cost in THB if the current spot
rate = 33.40 THB./$? Answer: The expected cost = 200,000 * 33.4 =
6,680,000 THB2. What is the actual cost in THB if the future spot
rate = 34.30 THB./$ ?86 Answer : The actual cost = 200,000 * 34.3 =
6,860,000 THB3. If you enter 60 days Forward Contract and lock-in
the forward rate at 33.86 THB./$ what is the expected cost? What is
the actual cost? Answer: The expected cost = 200,000 * 33.86 =
6,772,000 THB 35