12/9/2008 10:12 PM Pacific

I still think there is one more wave to the downside, but it is possible that we already started the next wave up. This interpretation shows that we have completed three quarters of a zigzag down in the futures. The most probable fine-tuned target down from here is 878. There is a Fibonacci confluence below the “hard deck” (orange support line) but .500 is not a common retracement level for a 4th wave.

On the daily cash chart there is now a Fibonacci confluence between the Expanded Flat extension from B and a 1.618 extension of (1) up from (2). This is very constructive and provides corroboration that the 4th wave expanded flat thesis is probable. This daily chart also shows that the 940 target from the update earlier today (shown again below for convenience) coincides with the trend line and top Bollinger band, nice corroboration for the next resistance level.

12/9/2008 10:12 PM Pacific

12/9/2008 10:12 PM Pacific

Again, a move below the hard deck signals caution because that would be uncommon for my short-term thesis. Alternatively, if we don’t move below Tuesday’s low, I will provide a revised upside target. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.