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Global Macro Tipping Points October 17th, 2011 A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

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Page 1: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 2: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

INCREASES CURRENT Q4 '10 CHANGE

EU Banking Crisis 1 2 1

Sovereign Debt 2 1 -1

China Bubble 3 22 +19

Risk Reversal 4 5 +1

Social Unrest 5 36 +31

Geo-Political Event 6 37 +31

Rising Inflation & Interest Pressures

7 14 +7

Food Price Pressures 8 15 +7

Oil Price Pressures 9 30 +21

Page 3: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

I - EU BANKING CRISIS

Page 4: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 5: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 6: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

II - SOVEREIGN DEBT

Page 7: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

II - SOVEREIGN DEBT

Page 8: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

II - SOVEREIGN DEBT

Page 9: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

II - SOVEREIGN DEBT

Page 10: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

III - CHINA

Page 11: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

IV - RISK REVERSAL

Page 12: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

V - SOCIAL UNREST

Page 13: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

VI - GEO-POLITICAL EVENT

Page 14: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

PREVIOUS CURRENT

BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD 7 8

CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 6 7

CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 8 9

CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE 7 8

ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX 6 8

INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 4 5

INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY 4 4

MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES 7 8

COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES 5 1

Average (1 = Low Risk, 10 = High Risk) 6.00 6.44

ANYTHING OVER 5 SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SERIOUSLY ELEVATED

Page 15: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD

Page 16: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

Page 17: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE

Page 18: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 19: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX

Page 20: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3

Page 21: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY)

Page 22: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES

Page 23: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES

Page 24: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

This chart accompanies the podcast recordedOctober 14th, 2011

WEEKLY WRAP

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights

Page 25: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 26: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 27: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 28: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 29: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 30: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

This chart accompanies the podcast recordedOctober 17th, 2011

CHART TITLE HERE

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights

Page 31: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 32: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

Global Macro Tipping PointsOctober 17th, 2011

A FRANTIC FOUR WEEKS

The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens

Page 33: Under the lens-audio_slides-10-17-11-sub-frantic_four_weeks

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE

THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility.

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens