U.S. employment update and outlook: November 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

October records another month of

200,000+ job gains

U.S. employment situation: October 2014 November 7, 2014

October 2014 employment summary

• Total non-farm employment increased by 214,000 jobs in October. Revisions in previous months mean that this was the eighth

consecutive month of monthly additions surpassing 200,000 jobs.

- Growth was once again highly diverse and the top three subsectors in terms of additions were responsible for only slightly more

than two-thirds of new jobs.

- On a year-on-year basis, all subsectors except for information posted net gains. This is in line with previous months and the

decline of employment in print and traditional media, which heavily weighs in on the information subsector.

• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to 5.8 percent due to a combination of persistently low labor force participation (remaining

around 62.8 percent in recent months) and steady employment gains.

- Total unemployment declined to 11.5 percent, a drop of 30 basis points and falling faster than the official unemployment rate.

- Unemployment for college and high-school grads bucked the trend and increased slightly, but are still both below-average.

• Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health continue to lead and surpassed PBS as the largest drivers of growth in

October. Revisions pushed down PBS gains over the past three months, resulting in office-using subsectors accounting for one-sixth

of total non-farm gains.

• Improving economic conditions have led to rising consumer confidence: in October, the Conference Board recorded a recovery high

of 94.5 points, rebounding from a slight dip into the upper 80-point range in September.

• From a geographic perspective, Texas and the Sunbelt are the definite leaders, with markets consistently reporting 3.5 percent or

greater year-on-year employment growth. While most major markets are now in the 2.0+ percent range (with the notable exceptions

of Chicago and Philadelphia), they have yet to keep up with Austin, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and South Florida in

percentage terms, among other high-growth areas.

October saw 214,000 new jobs added nationally, resulting in the

ninth consecutive month of 200,000+ additions 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

201,

000

304,

000

202,

000

267,

000

243,

000

203,

000

256,

000

214,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

Aug

-14

Oct

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

3

Unemployment nudges down another 10 basis points to 5.8

percent due to sustained growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

Job openings hit a record 4.8 million in October as corporate

confidence continues to rise


5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-4.0

0.4

1.0

1.0

2.5

3.0

3.0

5.0

8.5

12.0

13.3

14.0

15.0

15.1

27.1

27.2

37.0

41.0

52.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Information

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts

Other services

Financial activities

Government

Wholesale trade

Construction

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

1-month net change (thousands)

Leisure and hospitality and education and health surpass PBS

for largest contribution in October; only information posts loss


6


Education and health

PBS

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

60.7 percent of

monthly

growth.

2.8

10.0

16.0

43.0

47.0

59.4

60.0

85.0

125.7

154.0

154.4

170.0

231.0

237.7

249.1

347.6

380.0

428.0

657.0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Utilities

Information

Nondurable goods

Other services

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts

Government


Wholesale trade

Durable goods


Manufacturing

Construction

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance


Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS



Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Annually, PBS remains the leader, representing one-quarter of

the 2.6 million jobs added over the past 12 months


7

Core subsectors added 75.8 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Growth in the private sector results in second consecutive 24-

month growth of more than 5.0 million jobs

Private sector hiring up 5.0

million since October 2012

Public sector hiring up 17,000

workers since October 2012


8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Bucking the overall trend, unemployment for bachelor’s degree

holders and high school graduates inched up slightly

3.1%

5.7%


9

Labor force participation in both segments has remained

largely flat and at record lows


10

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Both goods-producing and service-providing employment are

growing faster, posting notable increases in job creation

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

Total non-farm, energy, tech and office-using are all seeing

growth in rate of job gains; tech still leads

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through September 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech still leading but slightly slower in line with national

trends, while energy remains up-and-down

Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

Initial unemployment claims continue to fall and have been

below 300,000 for eight consecutive weeks

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence rebounded from its dip in September to a

recovery high in October of 94.5 points

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

Quits are slowly rising as worker sentiment about the job

market bounces back, while hires are also on the up


16

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Qui

ts (

thou

sand

s)

Quits Hires

Both private and public employees have seen compensation

growth slower than previous cycles

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e in

EC

I

Private Public

2.0% Private

1.8% Public

5-year

average growth

17


Information, leisure and mining lead wage growth; all

subsectors post increases in line with macroeconomic

recovery

0.0%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.7%

2.0%

2.5%

2.7%

2.8%

4.0%

4.4%

5.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Utilities


Manufacturing

Wholesale trade


Construction

Retail trade

Other services


PBS

Mining and logging


Information

12-month % change in average weekly wages

18


Houston regains title as fastest-growing employment market

among major metros; Sunbelt still reigns supreme in job creation


19

Dallas

3.2%

Houston

4.3%

Austin

3.6%

Jacksonville

3.3%

Raleigh-

Durham

3.2%

Silicon Valley

3.5%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 0.5 percent year-on-year, however

20


Detroit

0.3%

Washington,

DC

0.3%

New Jersey

0.1%

Kansas City

0.5%

Columbus

-0.7%

Hampton

Roads

0.5%

The labor force participation rate stayed flat a near-recovery

low of 62.8 percent, contributing to declines in unemployment


21

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment is falling faster than the official

unemployment rate, now at 11.5 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


22

Diverse gains and strong performance by leisure, hospitality

and health result in only one-sixth of new jobs as office-using


23

Revisions push down PBS and, in turn, office-using job growth

in October

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In October 2014, it represented all net new office jobs.


24

Temporary help services is still on its way to 3.0 million jobs,

but rate of growth slightly slower and more stable

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


25

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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U.S. employment update and outlook: November 2014