04 foundation and_history_of_the_pdsa_cycle_rmcln_10_23_09

l i f h iEvolution of the Science of Improvement:of Improvement:

History of the PDSA CycleRon Moen & Cliff Norman

SWQNSWQN

Austin, TX

27 O t b 200927 October 2009

Evolution of the PDCA Cycle Paper No.:NA01Paper No.:NA01

Session No.: 16‐A‐10

Session Theme: TQM/Management System

16 S b 200916 September 2009

Tokyo, Japan

Ronald Moen1, Clifford Norman2

1. Associates in Process Improvement‐Detroit (USA), [email protected] g

2. Associates in Process Improvement‐Austin (USA), [email protected]

KeywordsKeywords

Scientific Method, W. Edwards Deming, PDCA, PDSA, Model for Improvement

Intro to the Scientific MethodPhilosophy of Science

Integration of Scientific Method into the Science of Improvement

Figure 1: Evolution of the Scientific Method

Philosophy of Science

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Model for Pragmatism Integration of i &

Father of Modern

into the Science of Improvement

PDSA Cycle

Shewhart Cycle

ImprovementAPI

1996, 2009

Charles PeirceWilliam JamesHarvard 1872

Pragmatism & Empiricism

C I Lewis 1929

Inductive

Father of Modern Science

Galileo 1610

API1987,1990,

1994

yShewhart1939

Deming WheelDeming

PDSA

LearningFrancis Bacon

1620

How We ThinkJohn Dewey

19 33Shewhart Cycle

Deming1950

PDCA Japanese QC

Deming1993

Deming1986

PDCA Mizuno TQC

The First Scientist

Ibn al‐Haytham995 p Q

1951TQC1959

Early ContributionsRoger BaconRoger Bacon

1245

Intro to the Scientific MethodPhilosophy of SciencePhilosophy of Science

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Father of Modern Th f N O d i t ll i

Inductive


Galileo 1610

C d i iC d i i

Scientific MethodScientific MethodThe cover of Novum Organum depicts a galleon passing between the mythical Pillars of Hercules that stand either side of the Strait of Gibraltar, marking the exit from the well‐charted waters of the Mediterranean into the Atlantic Ocean. The Pillars, as the boundary of the


1620

Conducting experimentsConducting experimentsDeductive/inductive Deductive/inductive

reasoningreasoning

Mediterranean, have been smashed through opening a new world to exploration. Bacon hopes that empirical investigation will, similarly, smash the old scientific ideas and lead to greater understanding of the world and heavensheavens.The Latin tag across the bottom is taken from the Book of Daniel 12:4. It means: "Many will travel and knowledge will be increased".

Bacon wanted the government to subsidize science. The idea is that if you invest in science the state will benefit from the results ‐ just like the ships that took the risk of leaving the safety of the Mediterranean have returned with great treasures from America. It is also a metaphorwith great treasures from America. It is also a metaphor for abandoning the Classical knowledge of the Mediterranean and adopting the new Baconian methods of science.


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Pragmatism



Conducting Conducting experimentsexperiments

Scientific methodScientific method


19 33

experimentsexperimentsDeductive/inductive Deductive/inductive

reasoningreasoningPragmatismPragmatism


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Pragmatism Integration of i &




C I Lewis 1929

Conducting experimentsConducting experimentsD d ti /i d tiD d ti /i d ti

Scientific MethodScientific Method


19 33

Deductive/inductive Deductive/inductive reasoning reasoning PragmatismPragmatism

A priori truth andA priori truth and experience

Shewhart1939

Foundation and History of the PDSA Cycle

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Walter Shewhart applies the scientific method to

f d d1. specification

manufactured product1. Making a hypothesis2. Carrying out an experiment3 Testing a hypothesis3. Testing a hypothesis

Every statementEvery statement must be capable of being tested

A continuing and self-corrective method forA continuing and self corrective method for making the most efficient use of raw and fabricated materials

Deming1950


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

W. Edwards Deming expands on Shewhart’s ideas to include

DesignResearchthe design and redesign of product based on consumer

research

ProductionSales

Deming1950


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1. Design the product (with appropriate tests).2. Make it; test it in the production line & in the laboratory.3. Put it on the market.3. Put it on the market.4. Test it in service, through market research, find out what the user thinks of it, and why the non-user has not bought it.5 Re-design the product in the light of5. Re-design the product, in the light of consumer reactions to quality and price. Continue around and around the cycle.

Evolution of the PDCA CycleJUSE 1951

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Through JUSE Seminars Japanese executives recast

DesignPlan

ResearchAction

the Deming wheel into the Plan, Do, Check, Action

(PDCA cycle)

ProductionDo

SalesCheck

Evolution of the PDCA CycleMizuno 1959

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Ppl

PlanActionPpl

DoCheck

Dr. Mizuno with input from Dr. Juran includes goals and targets and

procedures in the plan

The PDCA Cycle becomes a “Management Cycle”

Deming1986


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Deming reintroduces the Shewhart Cycle as steps for improvement offor improvement of product or process

1. What could be the most important accomplishments of the team? What changes might be desirable? What data are available? Are new

fobservations needed? If yes, plan a change or test. Decide how to use the observations.2. Carry out the change or test decided upon, preferably on a small scale.3. Observe the effects of the change or test.3. Observe the effects of the change or test. 4. Study the results. What did we learn? What can we predict?5. Repeat Step 1, with knowledge accumulated.

PDSA Cycle API1987


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1987

PlanningAction“This paper is great, I think.” ‐‐Deming, 23 Nov. 1986

PplObservation & AnalysisSynthesis

Deming, 23 Nov. 1986

Quality Progress Sept. 1987

PDSA Cycle API1987


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1987

At a Deming Four‐day Seminar:

“Ron, I’d appreciate your help on theRon, I d appreciate your help on the Shewhart Cycle. I will explain it at 9 o’clock. Then you run through it in your own way. Is this good?

‐‐‐Deming, 15 Jan. 1987

PDSA Cycle API1987


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1987

A ti

“R D lik hi ?”

PlanAgree on how to use the results

Action

“Ron, Do you like this?” ‐‐Deming, 25 Feb. 1987

results

Carry it outObservationAnalysisSynthesis

A process of learningSh h t I t C lShewhart Improvement Cycle

PDSA Cycle API1988


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1988

Th Sh h t C l

“I will enclose my idea ofPlan a change.Aim: to

Act*

The Shewhart Cycle

14I will enclose my idea of the Shewhart cycle.” ‐‐Deming, 25 March 1988

improve the process

Try out theStudy the

lt Try out the change, preferably on a small scale

results. What did we learn?

23

*Act. Adopt the change orRun through the cycle again, under different environmental conditionsorAbandon the idea

PDSA Cycle Deming1990


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1990

The Shewhart Cycle for Learning and Improvement

Handout from Deming’sPlan a change or a test,

Act*

y g pThe P D S A Cycle

PAHandout from Deming s Four‐day seminar, Jan. 30‐Feb. 2, 1990

,aimed at improvement.

Carry out theStudy the

lt Carry out the change or the test (preferably on a small


DS

scale)*Act. Adopt the change. orAbandon it. orRun through the cycle again, possibly under different environmental conditions.

PDSA Cycle API1990


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1990

17 November 1990Dear Ron,I don’t recall all the content of your book which I amI don’t recall all the content of your book, which I am delighted to learn is really in its final stages, but I was just thinking, If it speaks of the PDSA cycle, be sure to call it PDSA not the corruption PDCAPDSA, not the corruption PDCA.

Sincerely yours, W. Edwards Demingg

PDSA Cycle API1990


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1990

“Deming calls the cycle The Sh h C l f l i

General descriptionExpected results

Boundaries

Charter

Shewhart Cycle for learning and Improvement: the PDSA Cycle.”

Selection of processCustomers/suppliers

FlowchartCause‐and‐effect diagram

Currentknowledge

gHistory

PlanActImprovement cycle

DoStudy

Foundation and History of the PDSA CycleDeming1991

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1991

Journal of Management History. Vol. 3 No. 2 1997Library of Congress archives: additional information

about W Edwards Deming (1900 1993)about W. Edwards Deming (1900‐1993) by Peter B. Petersen, Professor of Management and Organization Theory, Johns Hopkins University,

Baltimore USABaltimore, USA

“It is the PDSA Cycle, not PDCA. Check means to hold back. How PDCA ever came into existence I know not.” ‐

‐Deming, , June 1, 1991 letter to H. M. Taylor

Deming1993


A t Ad t th

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1993

The Shewhart Cycle for Learning and i

PAPlan a change or test, aimed at improvement

Act- Adopt the change, or abandon it, or run through the

improvement The PDSA Cycle

DSDo- Carry out the change or

Study- the results. What did

gcycle again

test (preferably on a small scale)

we learn? What went wrong?

PDCA Cycle Joiner1994


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

1994

Continuous ImprovementThe Shewhart PDCA Cycle

Handout from thePlan a change.Aim: to

Act*

The Shewhart PDCA Cycle

14Handout from the Hunter Conference ‐‐

3 June 1994improve the process

Try out theCheck the

lt Try out the change, preferably on a small scale


23

*Act. Adopt the change orRun through the cycle again, under different environmental conditionsorAbandon the idea

API1994


1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

API adds more specifics to the PDSA Cycle.

(prediction in the planning(prediction in the planning phase , compare what

happened to the predictions in the studypredictions in the study

phase)

API1996


Model for Improvement

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

API adds three basicquestions to supplement the PDSA Cycle. The


What are we trying to accomplish?How will we know that a change is

an improvement?What change can we make that will

PDSA Cycle is used to develop, test, and implement changes.

What change can we make that will result in improvement?

Ppl

PlanAction

DoStudy

API2009


Model for ImprovementWhy the Model for Improvement?

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000


What are we trying to accomplish?How will we know that a change is

an improvement?What change can we make that will

•Is applicable to all types of organizations•Provides a framework for the

aimmeasures

hWhat change can we make that will result in improvement?application of improvement methods

guided by theory •Emphasizes and encourages the iterative learning process of deductive

changes

Ppl

PlanActioniterative learning process of deductive and inductive reasoning. •Allows project plans to adapt as learning occurs

DoStudy

Intro to the Scientific MethodPhilosophy of Science


Figure 1: Evolution of the Scientific Method

Philosophy of Science

1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Model for Pragmatism Integration of i &

Father of Modern


PDSA Cycle

Shewhart Cycle

ImprovementAPI

1996, 2009



C I Lewis 1929

Inductive


Galileo 1610

API1987,1990,

1994

yShewhart1939

Deming WheelDeming

PDSA


1620


19 33Shewhart Cycle

Deming1950

PDCA Japanese QC

Deming1993

Deming1986

PDCA Mizuno TQC

p Q1951

TQC1959

Application of PDCA and PDSA in 2009: PDCA PDSA

Application of PDCA and PDSA

Develop a change Test a change Implement a change

PDCA (Japan) YES

PDSA (Deming) YES YES

PDSA (API) YES YES YES

BreakthroughBreakthroughResults

A P

A P

S D

A P

A P

S D Implement a change

Theories, h h

A P

S D

S DTest new conditions

hunches,& best practices

S D

Develop a change

Test a change

The PDCA Cycle

PDCA – Six Steps1. Determine goals

d t tand targets.

2. Determine methods of

• Plan• ActionDetermineGoals & targetsTakeet ods o

reaching goals.

3. Engage in d i d

Determine Methods of reaching goals

Appropriateaction

education and training.

4. Implement work.

Engage in education& training

Implement

Check the effectsOf Implementation

4. Implement work.

5. Check the effects of implementation.

• Do• CheckImplement work

6. Take appropriate action.

Reference: What is Total Quality Control – By Kaoru Ishikawa (1985)

Preview of Coming AttractionsPreview of Coming Attractions

Portland, 2010

Integration of Scientific Method Methods to Learn Improve & Manage Social Systems

Evolution of the Science of Improvement - Draft

Intro to the Scientific Method


Strategy for Process

I t

Methods to Learn, Improve & Manage Social SystemsPhilosophy of Science

PragmatismCharles PierceWilli J

Integration of Pragmatism & Empiricism


Shewhart Cycle

pAPI1994

ImprovementAPI1987

William JamesHarvard 1872

Empiricism C I Lewis 1929

Inductive Learning

ScienceGalileo 1610

How We Think Shewhart CycleWalter Shewhart

1939

Deming 8 Part WheelW Edwards Deming

PDSADeming


1620

John Dewey1933

W Edwards Deming1951

Production Viewed as a System

Quality as a Business Strategy

Deming1993The First

ScientistIbn al‐Haytham

995

PDCA

a SystemW Edwards Deming

1951

Business StrategyAPI1987

Early ContributionsRoger Bacon

System of Profound Knowledge

1000 1600 1800 1900 1920 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000

Japanese1962

Roger Bacon1245

KnowledgeW Edwards Deming

1988Draft paperBy Ron Moen and Cliff Norman (2009)

Education

04 foundation and_history_of_the_pdsa_cycle_rmcln_10_23_09