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617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Completions
Enrollment Pricing Employment BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates Gray Research
Industry Inquiries GrayReports
Demographics US Census
Job Postings WANTED Analytics
Students Programs Strategy Locations § Demographic priorities § Geo-priorities § Market share
§ City selection § Location selection § Relocation analysis § Consolidation
§ Program selection § Program development § Curriculum enhancement § Market reports
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation § Pricing § Outcome improvement
Advanced Analytics Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Investors
Competition (IPEDS)
Program Evaluation System
§ Custom Scoring
§ Scorecards
- By Program
- By Market
- 100+ Markets
- 800+ Programs
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 3
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
What is GrayReports?
GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
§ Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. § Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs. § Paid subscribers also have on-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets.
Over 41 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present
Over 800,000 new inquiries in September 2015 Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 4
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Key Demand Trends and Observations
For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.
1. September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year. § Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%
§ Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5% § Three of the five largest cities grew
§ Higher-level degrees continued to outperform
2. September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results. 3. Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42. 4. Channels are shifting quickly.
§ Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits § Social media is booming, up 347%
§ Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%
5. Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10 programs nationwide:
§ HVAC ranks 4th
§ Electrician ranks 8th
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 5
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. High-Potential Programs and Markets
5. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 6
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
In September, student inquiries for higher education programs increased 3% year-over-year.
§ May 2014 was the last month in which there was year-over-year growth. § In total, 2015 inquiries have fallen 6% year-over-year. § September broke this long series of declines.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
3% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 7
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Branded Inquiries: Overall Results
Branded inquiries (e.g., organic search) rose 14% in September.
§ Year-to-date, branded inquiries for education programs have risen 3%. § May, June and July results trailed last year. § August and September were up, and may be the start of a positive trend.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
14% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 8
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
3.6% 3.1%
2.0% 2.8% 2.5%
1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Education Industry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Conversion rates so far in 2015 are down 0.3% year-over-year—but they are trending up. § Year to date, the average mature month conversion rate is 3.2% down from 3.5 last year § All immature months are ahead of the averages for their month. § July and August are poised to reach last year’s levels.
Immature Months1
2015 Mature Month Average: 3.2%
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 9
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries
In September prices continued to rise, reaching $45.42.
§ In 2015, PPI prices have risen every month, except June. § Year-to-date average prices for PPI inquiries have risen $1.35 year-over-year. § In 2015, the average price is $44. § But, September prices jumped 3%, to approximately $45.50.
$43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.42
$41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94
$44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.41 $44.79
$42.18
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2014
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 10
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. High-Potential Programs and Markets
5. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 11
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change In September, inquiries for on-line higher education programs rose 20% year-over-year.
§ Year-to-date, inquiries for on-line programs are now down just 3% year-over-year. § September marks the first year-over-year increase since April—and the largest increase since December.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
20% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 12
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
In June, conversions for on-line programs dropped 25%, immature months (Jul-Sept) are trending up.
§ While June fell sharply, August and September are likely to show year-over-year growth.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
Immature Months1 -25% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 13
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs nearly reached last year’s levels.
§ Inquiries for on-ground programs have fallen 10% or more every month since February. § Year-to-date, student demand for on-ground programs has fallen 12% behind 2014 levels. § In contrast, September 2015 declined just 3.5%.
2012
0 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
-3.5% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 14
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
The 2015 decline in conversions for on-ground higher education programs has accelerated. § June matured 41% behind last year’s levels. § Excluding immature months (July through September), 2015 is 36% behind 2014 levels.
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
Immature Months1
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
-41% YOY
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 15
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. High-Potential Programs and Markets
5. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 16
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Largest Programs: September Growth
Inquiry volumes for Registered Nursing grew much faster than any other large program.
§ Student demand for Registered Nursing jumped 80% in September. § The inquiry volumes for Health Care Admin rose slightly year-over-year. § Business Admin, Medical Assisting and Criminal Justice all dropped more than 12% year-over-year.
29%
-25% -20% -32%
-64%
80%
7%
-12% -13% -24%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse.
Health/Health Care Administration/Management.
Business Administration and Management, General.
Medical/Clinical Assistant. Criminal Justice/Police Science.
Demand for Higher Education Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries
Five Largest Programs
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 17
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-43% -36% -28% -31%
3%
844%
184% 140% 118% 99%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
Curriculum and Instruction. Educational Leadership and Administration, General.
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder.
Special Education and Teaching, General.
Psychology, General.
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
The 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in August
In September, all five of the fastest-growers at least doubled their year-over-year inquiry volume.
§ Three of the five programs are in the education sector. § After a drop in 2014, inquiries for curriculum and instruction programs grew over 800%.
1. Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012). Minimum of 1,000 inquiries in 2014.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 18
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiries: Largest Cities
In the five cities with the highest number of inquiries for higher education, volume dropped in September. § Philadelphia and Atlanta experienced the smallest decline at 18%. § Los Angeles remains volatile, posting a 27% decline in 2015 compared to an 18% increase in 2014.
-4%
3%
11%
-6%
18%
-18% -18% -20% -20% -27%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 19
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
With a 21% surge in inquiries for higher education, Oklahoma City had the fastest inquiry growth in the US.
§ The student demand for higher education jumped over 7% in all five cities. § Year-over-year, Oklahoma City was the only city of the five to record back-to-back increases.
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
5%
-29%
-8% -10%
-24%
21% 10% 9% 8% 7%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Oklahoma City, OK New Orleans, LA Las Vegas, NV Houston, TX Tucson, AZ
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 20
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-17%
-10%
-8%
-3%
0%
2%
3%
15%
68%
-35% -10% 15% 40% 65%
Associate's
Certificates
On-campus Programs
External Inquiries
PhD
Online Programs
Branded Inquiries
Bachelor's
Master's
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014 vs. 2015 (July – September)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3-Months
Strong growth for graduate degrees is the highlight of the last three months.
§ Demand for Certificate and Associate’s programs were well below average. § On-ground programs declined 8%, while on-line programs increased 3%. § Interest in Bachelor’s degrees is up 15%.
Monthly Average
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 21
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
347% 252%
57% 38%
17% -4% -7% -8%
-11% -20% -21% -22%
-30% -36%
-68%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Internal: Social Media Branded: All Other Internal Branded: Email Branded: Organic External: PPI External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Interactive Branded: Website Branded: PPC Branded: Referral External: Affiliate Branded: Display Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: Offline Media Branded: Inbound Phone
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels
Inquiry Volumes by Channel in Trailing 3-Months
Social media, Email and Organic inquiries are far outpacing other channels.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 22
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume
For the first time in over 20 months, the strugglers outpaced the sustainers – growing 8% in September 2015 compared to a decline of 3% for the sustainers.
-12% -15% -15% -12%
0%
-3% -13% -16%
-31% -44% -46%
-27%
49% 45% 32%
11% 11% 6%
-2% -8% -3% -3% -7% -5%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014
-15% -11% -9%
-4%
-20%
-12% -14% -8%
8%
-3% -5%
0% 1%
-2%
12% 14% 9%
-3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015
Strugglers
Sustainers
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 23
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. High-Potential Programs and Markets
5. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 24
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Program Evaluation System
What programs should we “Stop, Start, Sustain,
or Grow?”
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 25
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
High Potential Programs
For Certificate and Associate’s programs, HVAC and Electrician programs made the top 10.
§ In this example, we focused scoring on Certificate and Associate’s programs nationally. § Over 800 programs received scores ranging from +22 to -30.
Program 1
Program 2
Program 3
Program 5
Program 6
Program 7
Program 9
Program 10
HVAC
Electrician
22
20
19
19
19
19
17
16
16
15
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 26
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
High Potential Program: HVAC Technology/Technician
HVAC scored a 19, with 95th percentile inquiry volumes and completions.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 27
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
High Potential Markets for HVAC
The Gray Market Evaluation System identifies Charlotte, NC as one of the top 10 cities for HVAC.
Market 1
Market 2
Market 3
Market 5
Market 6
Market 8
Market 9
Market 10
Market 4
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
21
HVAC
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 28
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Employment Market Research
WANTED Analytics confirms that Charlotte-Gastonia is one of the hardest places to hire HVAC technicians.
HVAC 20 US Cities with Highest Hiring Difficulty
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 29
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
High Potential Program: Electrician
Electrician scored a 16, with strong inquiry volume, completions, job openings, and jobs per graduate.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 30
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
High Potential Markets for Electrician
Houston, Texas is one of the top 10 markets for an Electrician program.
Market 1
Market 2
Market 3
Market 5
Market 6
Market 7
Market 9
Market 10
Market 4
Houston-The Woodlands TX
26
25
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
Electrician
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 31
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Program Employers
Once attractive programs are identified, we research employers, skills and certifications.
Excerpt from WANTED Skills Table Excerpt from WANTED Employer Table
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 32
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Program Evaluation System
5. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 33
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Key Demand Trends and Observations
For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.
1. September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year. § Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%
§ Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5% § Three of the five largest cities grew
§ Higher-level degrees continued to outperform
2. September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results. 3. Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42. 4. Channels are shifting quickly.
§ Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits § Social media is booming, up 347%
§ Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%
5. Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10 programs nationwide:
§ HVAC ranks 4th
§ Electrician ranks 8th
6. You can accurately evaluate all of your current and potential programs, by campus.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 34
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars
Please join us next month!
November Webinar (October Results)
Thursday, November 19th at 2:00 PM EDT
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 35
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins
CEO Gray Associates, Inc.
617-366-2836