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ADAPTWater, Climate, Food and Environment underClimate ChangeMEKONG BASIN IN SOUTHEAST ASIAWorkshop 16-17 June 2003
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Jun-03
ADAPTADAPTWater, Climate, Food and Environment under Water, Climate, Food and Environment under
Climate ChangeClimate Change
MEKONG BASIN IN SOUTHEAST ASIAWorkshop 16-17 June 2003
Jun-03
ContentsContents1. Main projected changes in climate in 21002. Effects of these changes on hydrology, environment, food
and industry3. Brief description of adaptation strategies4. Evaluation of strategies5. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Jun-03
Mekong River Mekong River SubSub--basinsbasins
Raster 0.5 degree
Climate stationwith long records
Sub-basin Area (km2)
Mun 60,912 Chi 55,985 Chi-Mun 4,175 Lancang 225,562 Nam Ou 30,708 Nam Ngum 8,886 Mekong 1 156,509 Mekong 2 20,558 Sekong 28,601 Srepok 48,318 Mekong 3 27,701 Tonlesap 86,594 Delta 40,492 Total 795,000
China
Vietnam Lao PDR
Thailand
Cambodia
Myanmar
MEKONG BASIN
Jun-03
1. Main projected changes in climate in 2100
Jun-03
PrecipitationPrecipitation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation (mm/month)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation (mm/month)
A2A2
B2B2
Jun-03
Mean temperatureMean temperature
15
20
25
30
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Mean temperature (oC)
A2A2
B2B2
15
20
25
30
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year
Mean temperature (oC)
Jun-03
Max temperatureMax temperature
20
25
30
35
40
45
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Maximum temperature (oC)
A2A220
25
30
35
40
45
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Maximum temperature (oC)
B2B2
Jun-03
Min temperatureMin temperature
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Minimum temperature (oC)
A2A2
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Minimum temperature (oC)
B2B2
Jun-03
RadiationRadiation
100
150
200
250
300
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Solar radiation (w/m2)
A2A2
B2B2100
150
200
250
300
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Solar radiation (w/m2)
Jun-03
Relative humidityRelative humidity
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year
Relative humidity (%)
45
55
65
75
85
95
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Relative humidity (%)
A2A2
B2B2
Jun-03
Wind speedWind speed
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year
Wind speed (m/s)
A2A21.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year
Wind speed (m/s)
B2B2
Jun-03
2. Effects of CC on hydrology, environment, food and industry
Jun-03
Mekong River Mekong River SubSub--basinsbasins
Raster 0.5 degree
Climate stationwith long records
Sub-basin Area (km2)
Mun 60,912 Chi 55,985 Chi-Mun 4,175 Lancang 225,562 Nam Ou 30,708 Nam Ngum 8,886 Mekong 1 156,509 Mekong 2 20,558 Sekong 28,601 Srepok 48,318 Mekong 3 27,701 Tonlesap 86,594 Delta 40,492 Total 795,000
China
Vietnam Lao PDR
Thailand
Cambodia
Myanmar
MEKONG BASIN
Jun-03
HydrologyHydrology(only CC)(only CC)
Monthly Q - A2 - Mekong 3
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - A2 - Delta
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)
Monthly Q - B2 - Delta
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)Monthly Q - B2 - Mekong 3
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)
Jun-03 2.01.32.01.3Ratio to 2000
38.225.9127.486.519.665.2Total
10.26.833.922.80.81.25.116.9Vietnam
7.64.425.214.61.11.62.99.8Cambodia
11.78.739.028.90.60.96.923.1Thailand
3.52.111.77.111.51.54.9Laos
0.40.31.41.10.50.80.30.9Myanmar
4.93.616.212.00.60.92.99.6China
Scenario B2
2.51.42.51.4Ratio to 2000
49.727.9165.593.019.665.2Total
13.77.545.625.11.21.65.116.9Vietnam
9.74.432.214.61.61.62.99.8Cambodia
14.69.348.731.10.91.26.923.1Thailand
5.12.416.98.01.521.54.9Laos
0.50.41.81.20.81.10.30.9Myanmar
6.13.920.212.90.91.22.99.6China
Scenario A2
20752025207520252025-752000-25
Food demand (mil t)Population (106)Growth rateFood demand 2000 (mil t)
Population 2000 (106)Sub-basin
Food demand: Food demand: increased with populationincreased with population
Jun-03
Food: Food: increase productionincrease productionRice yield (t/ha) from SWAP Rice yield (t/ha) from SWAP (Peter (Peter DroogersDroogers))
1.15.41.05.05.0Short season B21.05.11.04.95.0No irrigation B21.15.41.04.95.0Baseline B21.46.51.25.84.8Short season1.36.41.15.64.9No irrigation A21.46.81.15.64.9Baseline A2
Ratio to 61-90Yield
Ratio to 61-90Yield
2070-992010-39Yield
1961-90Scenario / Period
Jun-03
Environment: Environment: higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
4616,14013,672Ave 70_99-29-171,311466Min 70_99
151358,69662,118163553,18155,168Max 70_990115,39712,973Ave 10_39
-1561,588592Min 10_39-2-150,18854,016-11045,27145,163Max 10_39
Scenario B2141717,69815,147Ave 70_99
-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,43974,055194154,26957,659Max 70_99
0015,39912,940Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39
-2550,29457,387-11445,09146,635Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin
Jun-03
Hydropower: Hydropower: higher potentialhigher potential
4616,14013,672Ave 70_990115,39712,973
Ave 10_39Scenario B2
141717,69815,147Ave 70_990015,39912,940Ave 10_39
Scenario A215,45912,894Ave 61_90
DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)
Sub-basin
Jun-03
3. A brief description of adaptation strategies
Jun-03
ScenariosScenarios
Reforestation of all shrub land
(17.7%) by mixed forest
Developed for food
Effects of CC, agriculture &
forestry
CC-AgriFor4
CurrentDeveloped for food
Effects of CC & agriculture
CC-Agri3
CurrentCurrentEffects of CCCC-NoAgri2
CurrentDeveloped for food
Current trend without CC
Baseline1
ReforestationAgriculture development
ObjectiveScenarioNo.
Jun-03
Scenario BaselineScenario BaselineNo CC No CC –– with with AgriAgri. development. development
-2-115,16712,725Ave 70_99
-201,811560Min 70_99
0051,35954,9320045,86141,031Max 70_99
-1-115,25712,787Ave 10_39
-201,817560Min 10_39
1151,55955,1111146,04741,214Max 10_39
15,45912,894Ave 61_90
1,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90
DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge
(m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge
(m3/s)
Sub-basin
Jun-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--NoAgriNoAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
4616,14013,672Ave 70_99-29-171,311466Min 70_99
151358,69662,118163553,18155,168Max 70_990115,39712,973Ave 10_39
-1561,588592Min 10_39-2-150,18854,016-11045,27145,163Max 10_39
Scenario B2141717,69815,147Ave 70_99
-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,43974,055194154,26957,659Max 70_99
0015,39912,940Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39
-2550,29457,387-11445,09146,635Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin
Jun-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
3515,90213,512Ave 70_99-30-171,305466Min 70_99
151358,65562,070163453,13855,106Max 70_99-1015,24512,884Ave 10_39
-2061,484592Min 10_39-2-250,16553,979-11145,26445,504Max 10_39
Scenario B2131617,43914,967Ave 70_99
-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,64874,178194154,49757,723Max 70_99
-1015,23012,843Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39
-1550,53357,629-11445,44646,646Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin
Jun-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriForAgriFor: : less severe floodless severe flood
4314 78712 553A 70 99-38-301,149394Min 70_99
162159,09966,124153452,73554,967Max 70_99-9-714,13211,942Ave 10_39
-23-51,423533Min 10_39-6-348,22153,068-9941,72544,536Max 10_39
Scenario B24716,10313,809Ave 70_99
-27-261,356412Min 70_99263164,24571,874163052,77053,370Max 70_99
-9-814,11911,905Ave 10_39-12-91,634508Min 10_39
-2549,92857,410-5343,19042,376Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90Delta
Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3Delta
Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)
Sub-basin
Jun-03
3. Evaluation of strategies
Jun-03 number# days unnavigable
MWhydropower
number# damsIndustry
0.40.20.40.20.1US$variation in farm income
3.41.71.41.21.0US$average farm income
numbertons of river fishcaught per year
6.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1numbertons of maize per year
66.7 33.5 25.4 22.219.4numbertons of rice per year
Food
+++/---PCB
--------------------------+++/---NaCl (salinity intrusion)
+++/---BOD
+++/---Fertilizer
numberLongitudinal freedom
numberLateral freedom
numberha wetlands
numberha floodplain forest
numberha upstream forest
+++/---Fisheries
52.226.653.627.552.226.653.627.518.6number# affected people by flood
EnvironMent
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
MixedIndustryFoodEnvironm.t
A2 future adaptationA2 no
adaptation
Cur-rent 2000
Mea-Sured
inIndicatorIndi
cator
GoodStable
Decreasevery bad
A2 indicator analysisA2 indicator analysis
Jun-03 number# days unnavigable
MWhydropower
number# damsIndustry
0.10.10.10.10.1US$variation in farm income
2.11.31.11.01.0US$average farm income
numbertons of river fishcaught per year
4.6 3.22.4 2.42.1numbertons of maize per year
38.7 25.219.8 19.019.4numbertons of rice per year
Food
+++/---PCB
--------------------------+++/---NaCl (salinity intrusion)
+++/---BOD
+++/---Fertilizer
numberLongitudinal freedom
numberLateral freedom
numberha wetlands
numberha floodplain forest
numberha upstream forest
+++/---Fisheries
39.124.740.825.939.124.740.825.918.6number# affected people by flood
Environment
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
2070-99
2010-39
MixedIndustryFoodEnvironm.t
A2 future adaptationA2 no
adaptation
Cur-rent 2000
Mea-Sured
inIndicatorIndi
cator
GoodStable
Decreasevery bad
B2 indicator analysisB2 indicator analysis
Jun-03
5. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats)
Jun-03
ScenariosScenarios
Difficult in sharing resources due to political problem
Collaboration in research &
development
Six riparian countries:
management & data
problemCC provides more water
Unequal seasonal distribution: high
flood in rainy season & low flow
in dry season
Improve water resource
development for food,
environment & industry
Large & long basin:
unequal distribution in space & time, data problem
Water is plentiful
(total volume & per capita)
ThreatsOpportunitiesWeaknessesStrengths
Jun-03
SLURP: Changes in water resourcesSLURP: Changes in water resourcesHigher flood and more drought in A2, 2010-39Need more analysis in extremes by sub-basin
Jun-03
THANK YOU FOR YOUR THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONATTENTION
