Agricultural trade, and economic growth in Myanmar

CommentsMaximo Torero (m.torero@cgiar.org)

Division Director

&

David Laborde

Senior Researcher and Theme Leader

Markets, Trade and Institutions Division - IFPRI

Comment 1: Looking at Exports (2010 situation)

• High specialization in products and partners• 10 products – 90% : (1000USD)

• And partners 5 partners = 87%

• And very specific linkages:• Natural Gas Thailand• Precious stones (emeralds) Hong Kong• Woods + Beans India

Natural gas, in gaseous state 2,936,006 Precious stones 1,860,142

Beans of the species Vigna mungo ( 749,469 Topical wood spec 288,762 Wood, in the rough ( 265,160 Fish, 203,092 Natural rubber (excl. latex), in smoked sheets 194,936

Semi-milled/wholly milled rice, whether/not polished/glazed 156,049

Dried leguminous vegetables, n.e.s., shelled, whether/not skinned/split 127,071

Sesamum seeds, whether/not broken 67,725

THA 3,177,247

HKG 1,611,753

IND 958,105

CHN 476,272

SGP 276,306

Comment 1: Looking at Imports (2010 situation)

• High specialization in partners (but SGP may reexport goods from third parties)• Five key partners = 76%

• Less specialization for products (normal, imports are more diversified): 10 products – 50% of total imports

• Petroleum products (1bn)

• Drilling materials (important for Natural Gas and Mining)

• One key agricultural product: Palm oil (Indonesia and Malaysia but also massive re-exports of these countries via Singapore)

CHN 1,128,478

SGP 1,122,550

THA 473,437

KOR 252,510

JPN 218,810

Comment 2: After 2010 – Imports

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CHN

HKG

IND

SGP

THA

• Increasing role of china

• Mainly manufacturing goods including cellular phones

In 1

00

0 U

S$

Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports

• Increasing role of china

• Big jump is linked to precious stonesIn

10

00

US$

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CHN

IND

THA

Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports to China

• Distribution if we remove precious stones peak of 2014

• Start to export natural gas to this new market

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Natural gas, in gaseous state Wood, in the rough (excl. of 4403.1 Tin ores & concentrates

Articles of precious/semi-precious Ferro-nickel, in granular/powder fo Topical wood spec. in SH Note 1 to

Iron ores & concentrates (excl. roa Electrical energy (optional heading

Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports to India

• Important linkage to pulses

• Rising demand from India

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

71320 - Chickpeas

71390 - Dried leguminousvegetables

71339 - Beans (Vigna spp.,Phaseolus spp. (

71333 - Kidney beans

71331 - Beans of the speciesVigna mungo

440399 - Wood, in therough

440349 - Topical wood

Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports prices to India

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Export prices, per ton, to India

Beans of the species Vigna mungo Kidney beans

Beans (Vigna spp., Phaseolus spp. ( Dried leguminous vegetables

Chickpeas

Comment 3: Need for nutrition-sensitive policy environment

9

Domestic Price VolatilityCan lead to worse nutrition outcomes but measures used to address this further threaten efficient marketsTorero and von Braun, 2010

Trade policy Standards for food composition

Reduced import tariffs for fruits & vegetablesReduced imports for unhealthy food

(Thow, et al., 2010)

Quantifying the role of trade agreements

(Such as the TPP) in the price of unhealthy foods and standards; There are clear challenges

(Khan, et al., 2015)

Impacts of Economic FreedomEconomic freedom associated with higher BMIs but also life expectancy in developing countries Larson, Murphy, and Williamson, 2016

Data limitationsExist along the value chains for processed foods & demand for nutrients; constricting ability to understand impacts (Godfray and Robinson, 2015)

Policy Strategies: Increasing Incentives

10

For sustainable production, distribution, and consumption of diverse, nutritious and safe foods

Infrastructure investments to improve access to markets and reduce inequalities

Cash transfers to cushion from the impacts of price shocks on nutrition and insurance mechanisms to increase resilience

.

Labelling harmonization and regulation to promote nutritious inputs and final products

Nutrition sensitive policy environment

Targeted subsidies

Comment 4: Policy Strategies: Building Capacity

12

in the food and agriculture sector to improve nutrition

Increase consumer knowledge of nutritious diets and diet-related risks

Storage and transportation improvements to avoid loss and spoilage

Increase information quality in terms of food price spikes and the resulting impact on food security

Social safety nets and

Efficient use of inputs (irrigation, seeds, fertilizers, etc.)

Targeted policies to reduce malnutrition

Property rights and land ownership

Improved infrastructure

Increase access and availability of food