Atmospheric Dispersion andDamage Cost

Y. MatsukiAugust 8, 2009 at 14:00

At NTUU “KPI”

How can you calculate the externalities?

How to calculate the monetaryvalue of the health impacts

D= (x)·f(x,C(x,Q))·Uv(x) dximpact of Area

D: damage cost (Euro, US dollars, UAH)(x): population density (person/m2)

f(x,C(x,Q)): Exposure-Response Functioncases/(year.person. g/m3)

Uv(x): unit cost (Euro/cases)C(x,Q): Concentration of the pollution ( g/m3)Q: Emission of the pollution ( g/year)x: Distance from the emission source (m)

Plant

Trypilska Power Station

Trypilska Power Station, Emissionsin 2006

Name of the pollutant Emissions, tons/year

Total 74 605.000

Metals and their compounds 22.087

Total suspended particles(TSP): PM10

21 951.11610 975.560

Nitrogen compounds 11 108.921

Sulfur oxide and other sulfurcompound

40 909.568

Carbon oxide 564.363

Technical characteristics of theTrypilska Power Station

Parameters Value of the parameters

Stack height, m 180

Effective release height,m

700(because of hot air and gas

flow)Diameter of the stack, m 9.6

Flow rate from the stack,m/s 14

Released gastemperature, K 413

Cities around the Typilska powerplant

Name of thecity

Population, persons Down wind distance,km

Prevailed downwind direction

Uzyn 26,434 42,500 SSW, SWObukhiv 32,776 9,500 WSWVasylkiv 39,722 30,750 WBoyarka 35,968 37,500 WNWVyshneve 34,465 37,500 NWKyiv 2,611,327 36,250 NNWBrovary 86,839 29,500 NBoryspil 107,950 28,250 NE,ENERzhyschiv 8,447 29,250 SEKagarlyk 13,757 32,250 SE

Note: The down wind distances were measured from the Power Station to the centers of the cities

Concentration of the pollution( g/m3)C(x,Q): Gaussian Plume Model

Q - h2

C = ---------------- exp [--------]21/2 3/2 ux z 2 z

2

Some hints for Excel

• =SQRT(3.14, 3)• =EXP(-h**2/2*Sigmaz**2)• =POWER(A1;2)• Q in micro gram/sec

Q - h2

C = ---------------- exp [--------]21/2 3/2 ux z 2 z

2

z

Atmospheric Stability

Surface WindSpeed(meter/second)

Day NightIncoming Solar Radiation Thinly

Overcastor clearsky

HeavyCloudStrong Moderate Slight

< 2 A A-B B

2-3 A-B B C E F3-5 B B-C C D E5-6 C C-D D D D> 6 C D D D D

Weather observationDay Wind Speed

(meter/second)Wind DirectionE, ESE, SSE, S…..

Atmospheric Stability(A,B… .F)

Aug 7 1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

Aug 8 0600

0700

0800

0900

2100

0900

Unit cost Uv forLong-term Mortality

Value of 1 YOLL = v = constantv v v

Uv = v + ---- + ----- + ……+ -----1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)N

r = discount rate of one yearN = years of human life

Exposure-Response

• PM10 long-term mortality• 2,60 × 10 -4 g/m3

• (Leksell & Rabl, 2001)

Examples of externality studies

Summary of Cost Estimates in mECU/kWh

Canada France GermanyPub. Occ. Env

.Gw.

Pub.

Occ.

Env. Gw. Pub.

Occ.

Env. Gw.

Coal 2.3 nq 53 nq 0.5 29 8.4Lignite 10.5Oil 69 nq 0.7 16 16.5

NaturalGas

12 nq 0.1 8 3.0

Nuclear

0.01-0.05

2.5 0.07 0 0 3.8

Wind 0.2Hydro

PhotoVoltaic

2.7

Pub. public impactsOcc. occupational impactsEnv. Environmental (buildings, crops, ecosystems,…), excluding global warmingGw. Global warmingnr not reportednq not quantified

Summaryof Cost Estimates in mECU/kWh (continued)Greece US Russia

Pub. Occ. Env. Gw. Pub.

Occ.

Env.

Gw.

Pub.

Occ.

Env.

Gw.

Coal 0.521.1

nr

Lignite 20 0.30 0.66 38Oil 10 0.17 0.95 21 0.15

0.21nr

NaturalGas

2.4 0.17 0.66 5.8 0.011

nr

Nuclear

0.170.26

0.4- 4

Wind 0.84 0.09 1.2 0.2Hydro 1.2 3.8 0 0.14PhotoVoltaic

Pub. public impactsOcc. occupational impactsEnv. Environmental (buildings, crops, ecosystems,…), excluding global warmingGw. Global warmingnr not reportednq not quantified

Germany 1997Damages of fossil fuel cycles

Damages of nuclear fuel cycle

External costs of PV cycle

External costs of wind fuel cycle

Damages of biomass fuel cycle

Biomass 2

Biomass 3

External costs for electricity production inthe EU (in EUR-cent per kWh) 2002

AUT: Austria, BE: Belgium, DE: Germany, DK: Denmark, ES: Spain ,FI: Finland, FR: France, GR: Greece, IE: Ireland, IT: Italy, NL: Norway,NO: Netherlands, PT: Portugal, SE: Sweden, UK: United Kingdom

Monetary values used foreconomic valuation

Results of the coal fuel cyclebefore NewExt [€-Cent/kWh]

Results of the oil fuel cyclebefore NewExt [€-Cent/kWh]

Results of the gas fuel cyclebefore NewExt [€-Cent/kWh]

• DENOX NOx removal system• FGD Flue Gas Desulfurization• SCR Selective catalytic reduction

Conclusions• Externalities of energy generation systems are

proven to be significant.• There is a developed methodology to calculate

energy externalities, with transparent andverifiable step by step approach.

• Regarding some additional externalities inUkraine (on energy security, coal power, people’sperception upon the catastrophic accident), thenecessity to calculate and include them intothe price of electricity is very strong.