Back to the future of news

Prof Charlie BeckettPolis/LSE

@CharlieBeckett

What I said in 2009

• 1. Journalism has never been more plentiful and of such as high quality

• 2. New technologies are delivering opportunities for journalism.

• 3. The same forces that offer these opportunities are also threatening the business model for mainstream media

• "The social media revolution...is all about the separation of information from its means of distribution"

• Your rival is Facebook and everything on social networks, not other news organisations or public service broadcasters

2009 Predictions• MSM when networked will be more valued by the public

• Specialised media will be more valued - eg finance sport etc

• Public sector will sustain • All organisations with a public role are becoming media

organisations. Government, business, NGOs, unions and the rest can all now communicate directly with the citizen and act as a forum, watchdog and reporter.

• 50% of current jobs will go

Structural change I predicted in 2009

• In some shape there will emerge a more semantic web that understands what you want from the Internet and seeks to provide it - so it threatens to disintermediate the editorial function entirely.

• We will be able to tap into the power of connected online data and networks - but the Internet will be so vast that we will increasingly operate in separate clouds within that internet sphere - this has profound implications for the role of news media organisations as they shift from institutions to networks to clouds.

What I said you should do in 2009

• In a world where people have instant and easy access to your rival's work - what are you adding?

• How connected are you to your audience?

• How relevant are you to the consumer? • How editorially diverse are you?

UK as a news lab

• Two newspapers have died: Independent & New Day

• 2016 advertising crisis: Brexit or structural?• Continuing newspaper sales decline after

election boost• Similar shifts in audience behaviour to US but

a different mixed media ecology

Guardian

• Open model, reach• Massive losses• Over staffing• No editorial business strategy• Now seeking ‘membership+’ model• Cross subsidy from capital sales fund

Mail

• Relentless editorial focus online• Strong paper product• Reach, global scale• Advertising• Profitable but digital revenue growth stalled

Times

• Fairly strong pay wall• Strong subscription marketing with additional

benefits• Strong but narrow editorial offering• Profitable but declining online presence and

where do new readers come from?• Cross subsidy from Murdoch empire

The Sun

• Abandoned pay wall• Strong sports video offer• Ancillary business – eg holidays• Feminisation• Humour• Social experimentation

FT

• Subscriptions now 50% plus revenue• Digital first• Global rolling production• Specialisation• Community management• Diverse strategy – newsletters to data viz• Change in editorial tone and range• How To Spend It

Digital natives

• Buzzfeed• Politico• Vice• Guido Fawkes But it’s platforms that are killing it:• Instagram, Snapchat, Whatsapp

Local press

• Disinvestment• Closures• Consolidation• Marketing and editorial economies of scale• BBC partnership• Emerging hyper local UGC websites• Trinity bought ‘i’ newspaper• Johnston Press about to launch new digital offerings

(eg online only titles)

Key goals

• Engagement not traffic• Branded content• Diversification• Segmentation• Mobile• Video• Platform deals: is Facebook your friend?• Paper maximisation

Predictions

• Brands & bulletins are remarkably resilient but they are not enough• Advertising is going through the same crisis as journalism• Continuing hollowing out of local media – hyperlocal fails to replace• BBC not the enemy – the rest of the Internet is• Plus corporate, government, NGOs, marketers who will fill the

information space• Value added content is king – community is vital but does not

monetise• News is dead, long live journalism (esp mobile & video)• Use data but to an end – get emotional – all journalists must be

marketers • Ignore America

• Nine Things You Need To Know About The Future of News:

• http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/polis/2016/02/19/future-of-news/