Online Course

Completion Rates

Barry Dahl

Desire2Learn Community Manager

Desire2Learn Community

This Webinar

• Completion Rates for Online Courses

• What are the expectations, and why?

• How are we doing?

A

B

C D

F

Or Incomplete?

Our Grade?

What’s the Buzz?

Weekly News Articles

CCRC Reports: Washington & Virginia

http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/Publication.asp?UID=872

CCRC Reports: Washington & Virginia

Washington State community and technical colleges in the fall of 2004. Students were tracked for nearly five years, until the spring of 2009

“students were more likely to fail or withdraw from online courses than from face-to-face courses”

“were slightly but significantly less likely to attain an educational award or transfer to a four-year institution”

http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/Publication.asp?UID=872

Say What?

• “slightly but significantly less likely”

• Translation … “I’m really, really sure that there is a very small difference.”

http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/online-community-college-students-more-likely-fail-withdraw-11581

CCRC Makes Big Headlines

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/07/19/study_finds_higher_dropout_rates_for_community_college_students_who_take_online_courses

CCRC Makes Big Headlines

Can’t Sleep? Read Some Comments

http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Are-So-Many-Students-Still/127584/

The Author Asks

“But isn't it time that we had an honest national conversation

about online learning? With countless studies showing success rates in online courses of only 50 per cent—as opposed to 70-to-75 percent for comparable face-to-face classes— isn't it time we asked ourselves some serious questions? Such as: Should every course be taught online? And should we allow every student—or any student who wishes to—to take online courses?”

1 of 126 Comments

• Online education will be big in America, because that's what we do: we take sublime and beautiful European classics and turn them into pablum. We took Belgian ales and made Miller Lite, we turned Neapolitan pizza into Dominoes, Pasta became Spaghetti O's, and fresh French baguettes became Wonder bread.

• We'll do the same with school, because that's what we do.

http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Are-So-Many-Students-Still/127584/#comment-210104173

Where’s the Data?

U of Central Florida

• Center for Distributed Learning – On the average, fully online courses have

slightly lower success rates and higher withdrawal rates than either their face-to-face or Web-enhanced counterparts

– http://cdl.ucf.edu/research/rite/dl-impact-evaluation/#Success

U. North Texas – Spring 2007

• Definitions make a difference:

• Completion: finished the course – received a grade other than a W or I. (A,B,C,D,F)

• Success: is defined as earning a grade of A, B, or C for an undergraduate course.

U. North Texas – Spring 2007

0% 50% 100%

Completionon-campus

Completiononline

Successon-campus

Successonline

95%

93%

80%

74%

Undergraduates (n=7,730)

UIS (Springfield) Online Course Data

90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%

Fall '05

Spring '06

Summer '06

Fall '06

Spring '07

Summer '07

Completion %

http://online.uis.edu/info/completion.html

Compare To 96%

On Campus

Bellevue CC Online Course Success

http://www.sbctc.edu/docs/data/stdt_success_retention_in_online_courses_bcc.pdf

What are the

Expectations?

Expectations of Success Rates?

75% 25%

On-ground Success

A,B,C D,F,W

Expectations of Success Rates?

75% 25%

On-ground Success

A,B,C D,F,W

75% 25%

Online Success

A,B,C D,F,W

Equal?

Expectations of Success Rates?

75% 25%

On-ground Success

A,B,C D,F,W

75% 25%

Online Success

A,B,C D,F,W

WHY?

Why, indeed. For example…

• Do we expect that every math instructor will have the same success rates?

Why, indeed. For example…

• Do we expect that the accounting program and the art program will have the same success rates?

Why, indeed. For example…

• Do we expect that the urban community college and the rural community college will have the same success rates?

LSC – 3 yrs – Developmental Courses

Passing Grades: A,B,C

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%58.5%

60.9%

67.8%

Online Day Night

Demographics Differences?

32%

68%

Gender Online

Male Female

50%

50%

Gender On-Campus

Male Female

More Differences?

65%

35%

On-Campus Ages

24 & ↓ 25 & ↑

51%

49%

Online Ages

24 & ↓ 25 & ↑

First-time Learners?

Each term, how many students are sitting in a F2F (traditional) classroom for the very first time?

• Est. < 1%

First-time Learners?

Each term, how many students are sitting in a F2F (traditional) classroom for the very first time?

• Est. < .01%

Each term, how many online students are “sitting” in an online classroom for the very first time?

• Est. >= 40%

Instructors?

• Do we expect that the new online instructors will have the same success rates as experienced online instructors?

Typical “Learning Curve”

60%

70%

80%

90%

Term 1 Term 2 Term 3 Term 4 Term 5

Success Rates – New Online Instructors

Instructor 1

Intsructor 2

Instructor 3

Fair Comparison?

On-Ground Success Rates

Online Success Rates

=

Fair Comparison?

=

Fair Comparison?

Course Withdrawal

Academic Non-success =

A Perspective from David Diaz

• “However, I believe that many online students who drop a class may do so because it is the right thing to do. In other words, because of the requirements of school, work, and/or family life in general, students can benefit more from a class if they take it when they have enough time to apply themselves to the class work.”

http://technologysource.org/article/online_drop_rates_revisited

A Perspective from David Diaz

• “Thus, by dropping the class, they may be making a mature, well-informed decision that is consistent with a learner with significant academic and life experience. This explanation would be consistent with their demographics while calling into question the idea that these students are academically unsuccessful or possess inferior academic abilities.”

http://technologysource.org/article/online_drop_rates_revisited

What to do

About It?

Potential Good Practices

• To help improve completion/success rates, consider the following:

– Required new student orientation

– Additional support mechanisms beyond the instructor

– Early intervention when they start falling behind

– Formalizing your expectations for online learners and online faculty

More Potential Good Practices

• To help improve completion/success rates, consider the following:

– Require interaction - no electronic correspondence courses (Expectations)

– Mid-term course evaluations

– Shorter class lengths (8 wks or less)

– Provide better “consumer” information pre-enrollment

– Professional Development Opportunities

One Example

Shorter Course Lengths

Why Don’t Adult Students Persist?

• From the Maricopa CC System: – 10% due to academic reasons such as course too

hard or too heavy a load.

– 65% due to life interruptions (includes the normal things of family or job issues, illness, etc. etc.)

Source: Ron Bleed, CIO of Maricopa CC (retired)

4 weeks 8 weeks

Psychology

Humanities

Biology

History

12 weeks

Example of Life Interruption

Psychology

Humanities

Biology

History

4 weeks

12 Weeks Invested, 12 Credits Paid For,

No Credits Earned,

With Little Incentive To Return

4 weeks

Psychology

Humanities

Biology

History

8 weeks

Alternate Outcome

Psychology

4 weeks

Humanities

8 weeks

Biology

12 weeks

History - No

12 Weeks Invested, 12 Credits Paid For, 9 Credits Earned,

With Greater Incentive To Return

Alternate Outcome #2

4 weeks

Psychology

Humanities

8 weeks

Biology - No

12 weeks

History - No

12 Weeks Invested, 12 Credits Paid For, 6 Credits Earned,

With Much Incentive To Return

LSC – FY2010 – All Online Courses

0%

10%

20%

30%

D,F,W

20.7%

26.2%

8-week 16-week

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

GPA

2.93

2.75

8-week 16-week

A Final Thought

Focus on What’s

Important

Change the Perspective

75%

25%

Online Students

Successful Non-successful

Change the Perspective

75%

25%

Online Students

Successful Non-successful

Those who need online learning for access

40%

Change the Perspective

75%

25%

Online Students

Successful Non-successful

Is this more likely?

40%

Online Course

Completion Rates

Barry Dahl

Desire2Learn Community Manager

Q & A