Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century

Britain’s Infrastructure for the 21st Century

Interim results from the ITRC’s Na5onal Infrastructure Assessment

Welcome and introduc9on

Roger Street

14 January 2014 Ins9tu9on of Civil Engineers

Purpose

•  To explain key concepts and methodology for na5onal infrastructure assessment

•  To present interim results and obtain feedback •  To explore the implica5ons of the work •  To set out the next steps for ITRC and seek further engagement in the research programme from industry and government

Programme



Overview of the assessment

Jim Hall


“a long-term sustainable plan, which means taking a cross-cutting and strategic approach to infrastructure planning,…”

The National Infrastructure Commission would… “produce a National Infrastructure Assessment looking at the UK’s needs over a 25-30 year time horizon” “It will develop evidence about the state of the nation’s assets and the likely impact of key economic, environmental and demographic trends” “It would set out an overarching vision for the strategic development of our national infrastructure, taking account of the main interdependencies between the sectors.”

ITRC Aim and Ambi9on

Aim: To develop and demonstrate a new genera5on of simula5on models and tools to inform the analysis, planning and design of na5onal infrastructure Ambi%on: Enabling a revolu5on in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK… whilst at the same 5me becoming an interna5onal landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

The ITRC story

Ques9ons

•  What are the op5ons for na5onal infrastructure provision?

•  How might op5ons be put together into a long term na5onal infrastructure strategy?

•  How will alterna5ve strategies perform in terms of reliability, security of supply and quality of service?

•  How will alterna5ve strategies perform with respect to environmental impact, in par5cular greenhouse gas emissions?

•  How much could alterna5ve strategies cost?

Developing and analysing infrastructure strategies

Assessment Methodology

The NISMOD modelling system

NISMOD-‐LP

Na9onal infrastructure strategies

P-‐MI: Minimum Interven5on P-‐CE: Long-‐term Capacity Expansion P-‐SE: Increasing System Efficiency P-‐NS: New Services and Planning

Na9onal Infrastructure Strategies



Exploring the results Robert Nicholls (chair)

14 January 2014

Ins9tu9on of Civil Engineers

Drivers of infrastructure demand: popula9on

Drivers of infrastructure demand: popula9on

Drivers of infrastructure demand: economy

Drivers of infrastructure demand: economy

Energy demand

Op9ons for energy supply

Costs and emissions for energy supply op9ons

Transport demand

Transport conges9on

Airport capacity

Water supply

Cooling water

Waste water

Solid waste

Need for new landfill capacity

Digital communica9ons

Na9onal infrastructure strategies

P-‐MI: Minimum Interven5on P-‐CE: Long-‐term Capacity Expansion P-‐SE: Increasing System Efficiency P-‐NS: New Services and Planning

Assessment of na9onal infrastructure strategies



Next steps for ITRC

Jim Hall


ITRC Key Ques9ons

36

1.  How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future?

2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt Na5onal Infrastructure to make it more resilient?

3.  How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy?

4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term?

ITRC achievements

•  Na5onal infrastructure planning and assessment capability for Britain

ITRC achievements


•  Na5onal infrastructure vulnerability and ‘hotspots’ analysis

ITRC achievements



•  Prototype model of infrastructure-‐economy-‐land use interac5ons

ITRC achievements




•  Understanding the governance issues around infrastructure interdependency

•  Na5onal infrastructure database and visualisa5on tools

•  Deepening engagement with industry and goverment

ITRC achievements






ITRC achievements






•  Deepening engagement with industry and government

ITRC next steps

•  Finalise the na5onal infrastructure strategic analysis

ITRC next steps


•  Further integrate and automate modelling capability in NISMOD-‐LP

ITRC next steps



•  Further develop the database and visualisa5on capability in NISMOD-‐DB

ITRC next steps




•  Na5onal infrastructure risk analysis in NISMOD-‐RV

ITRC next steps





•  Infrastructure-‐economy-‐land use model NISMOD-‐RD

ITRC next steps






ITRC next steps






•  Further analysis of governance issues

ITRC next steps







•  Engagement and impact

ITRC next steps







•  Engagement and impact •  Beyond 2015…



14 January 2014

Ins9tu9on of Civil Engineers

Education

Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century