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0WEL COME
Effect of Climate Change Parameters on Crop
Duration and Productivity
SANJU, H.R.PALB 1173
o Introduction • Climate change• Parameters of climate change
o Climate change parameters on crop durationo Climate change parameters on crop productivity
o Conclusiono Future line of work
Sequence of presentation
4
“Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)”
“Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other Factors”
CLIMATE CHANGE…
Two main causes for climate change
NaturalAnthropogenic
• Natural fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation
• Volcanic eruptions
• Short term cycles viz. ENSO
•Burning of fossil fuel emits CO2
• Methane emission from agriculture, land fills and
industry
•Nitrous oxide emission from agriculture and industrial
sector
•Release of CO2 due change in land use and land cover.
Fig 1 : Major contribution of greenhouse gases to climatic change over next 100 years based on 1990 global emission.
CO2
CH4
CFC
N2O
65%CO217%
CH4
12%CFC
8%N2O
Aggarwal, et. al., (1993)
PARAMETERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
1.High CO2 in the atmosphere
2. Increase in Temperature
Maximum and minimum temperature
3.Variation in rainfall pattern
No. of rainy days/ shift in season
Amount and distribution
4.Solar radiation
Day length
5.Drought
6.Floods
Major Parameters of Climate change
Fig 2: Estimates of Future Levels of CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099
IPCC, 2001
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1990 2025 2050
CO2 in ppm
Fig 3: Effect of rise in CO2 on C3 & C4 plants
• Photosynthesis increase (60-80%)• Stomatal conductance decreases • Transpiration reduces• WUE increasers (70%)
Crop Leaf photosynthesis
Grain yield Stomatal conductance
Per cent change
Maize 3 4 -34
Rice 36 30 -31
Wheat 35 31 -38
Sorghum 9 0.8 -37
Cotton 33 44 -36
Groundnut 27 30 -28
Soybean 35 34 -40
USDA Hatfield et al.,2011
Table 1: Response of plant physiological variables to doubling of CO2
(660 ppm) concentrations
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Leaves dry wt
(g/plant)
No. of seeds
Seeds /plant
Seed wt (g/plant
)
280 3.30 27.7 55.1 9.25
330 5.09 36.3 84.3 14.86
660 5.43 50.2 106.7 17.85
USDA Allen et al., 1991
Table 2: Effect of CO2 levels on soybean growth
Crops
Pod/ seed yield (g/plant)
% yield increase 350 µ mol mol-1 700 µ mol mol-1
Groundnut (C3) 9.06 13.29 46.7
Sorghum (C4) 25.78 27.37 6.2
U.K. Clifford et al., 1993
Table 3: Yield of groundnut and sorghum grown in controlled environment (glass house) at ambient and enriched carbon dioxide
levels.
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ph
oto
syn
the
sis
(u
mo
l/m
2 /s)
Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677
Ambient Elevated
FACE OTC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Gra
in y
ield
(g
/m2)
Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677
Ambient Elevated
Fig.4 :Effect of elevated CO2 on the grain yield and Photosynthesis in rice cultivars under FACE and OTC
Aggarwal et al., 2002
RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT TO ELEVATED CO2
Aggarwal, et al., 2002
(IPCC 2007)
Fig 5 : changes in temperature, sea level and snow cover due to climate change from 1850-2000
Fig 6: Temperature change from 1990-2100
IPCC., 2012
Increase average global surface temperature 1.8-4.0oC
Table 4: Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India
Year Season Increase in temperature (0C)
Change in rainfall (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Lal et al., 2001
States Temperature (oC)
Rainfall
MADHYA PRADESH varying trends Declining trend
GUJARATH 0.2-0.5 Varying trends
CHATTISGARH 1.0 Declining trends
MAHARASTHRA 1.0 More rains in May, June and July
KARNATAKA 0.5 Shift in peak rainfall month from September to October. Lower rainfall in July & Higher in August.
ORISSA 1.0 Frequent and intense cyclones and delayed monsoon
ANDHRA PRADESH 1.0 Intense rainfall away from coasts
KERALA 0.8 Decline in June-July, marginal increase in August-September
TAMIL NADU 1.0-1.5 Declining trend
Anon., 2008
Table 5: Temperature and rainfall trends over different states of India
Fig 7 : Rainfall shift in Eastern dry zone of Karnataka
Karnataka Rajegowda et al., 2008
AUGUST 27, 2008Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh received 110 mm rain fall in a single day ( average rainfall in entire August is 89 mm) and destroyed entire groundnut.
June 28, 2008 Mahasamund district in Chattisgarh, received 183 mm rainfall that day was more than the 150.5 mm rainfall usually received in the month of June and it was followed by 16 days dry spell.
July 26, 2005 a record breaking 944 mm rainfall flooded Mumbai and ruined farmers in adjoining Raigarh and Ratnagiri districts. Mumbai usually gets 600 mm rain over June and July. Paddy and Sugarcane on 90 thousand ha were destroyed.
September 2, 2006 Barmer district of Rajasthan received 577 mm of rains over 3 days. This was more than twice the average rainfall in a year. Farmers lost crops worth Rs. 1, 300 Crores and 75, 000 farm animals.
RAIN SHOCKED INDIAN FARMERS
Crops
Minimum (o C) Maximum(o C) Optimum (o C)
wheat 3-4.5 30-32 25
Barley 3-4.5 38-40 20
Oat 4-5 30 25
Maize 8-10 40-44 32-35
Sorghum 8-10 40 32-35
Rice 10-12 36-38 30-32
Tobacco 13-14 35 28
Table 6 : Cardinal temperature points for different crops
Effect on climate change on
crop duration and productivity
Table 7: Wheat crop response to variations in temperature
Temp Change(ºC)
Yield and yield attributes
Crop duration (Days)
MaximumLAI
GrainsPer ear
Grain yield (q/ha)
Strawyield (t/ha)
+2.0 %DEVIATION
-7.7 -23.9 -4.1 -12.2 -21.6
+1.5 -5.6 -17.6 -3.0 -7.2 -17.7
+1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5
+0.5 -0.7 -6.8 -0.2 -0.2 -6.0
Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83
-0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +10.9
-1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +15.2
-1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5
-2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +7.7 +27.1
Punjab Mavi et al. 1993
Table 8 : Change in temperature effect on Growing degree days in wheat
Turkey Anon., 2000
Table 9 : Change in maturity date under two climatic change scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC)
Turkey Anon., 2000
Fig 8 : Date of maturity and the expected wheat yields under two climatic change
scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC)
Turkey Anon., 2000
IARI, New Delhi Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991
Fig.9 : Effect of mean temperature on duration and yield of rice variety IR 36 at different locations
Impact of climate change on maize duration and
yield
T1 No climate change
T2 Uniform increase in maximum temperature alone by 10 C
T3 Uniform increase in minimum temperature alone by 10 C
T4 Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C
T5 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm
T6 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C
T7 Increase in precipitation by 10%
T8 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C + Increase in precipitation by 10%
T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
Fig 10: Impact of Climate change on duration of
Maize T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran.,2008
Good year- 553.2mm RainfallBad year - 117.7mm RainfallNormal year – 352.8 mm rainfall
Table 10 :Effect of climate change on maize
yield
Climate change scenario
GOOD YEAR BAD YEAR NORMAL YEAR
Maize yield
%deviation
Maize yield
%deviation
Maize yield
%deviation
T1 2132 0 267 0 601 0
T2 2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2
T3 2189 2.7 290 8.6 673 12.1
T4 2192 2.8 254 -5.6 652 8.5
T5 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9
T6 2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7
T7 2367 11.0 376 40.5 1026 70.8
T8 2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
LOCATION Year Duration Days to anthesis
Economic yield kg/ha
COIMBATORE 2000 116 94 4876
2020 113 92 4403
2050 110 90 3652
2080 109 90 3361
MADHURAI 2000 114 92 5117
2020 111 89 4752
2050 107 87 4305
2080 106 86 3386
SALEM 2000 116 93 4592
2020 112 92 3850
2050 111 90 2997
2080 108 88 2764
Table 11: Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and economic yield of Rice in different locations
T.N. Srivani, et.al.,2007
Table 12: Rice crop response to variations in temperature
Temp Change(ºC)
%DEVIATION
Yield and yield attributes
Crop duration (Days)
MaximumLAI
GrainsPer ear
Grain yield (q/ha)
Strawyield (t/ha)
+2.0 -3.3 -3.9 -12.4 -8.4 -6.4
+1.5 -2.6 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2 -1.7
+1.0 -2.0 -2.4 -6.1 -4.9 -1.2
+0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 -3.2 -0.7
Normal 153 6.2 494 61.4 4.94
-0.5 0.0 +0.2 +1.4 +3.0 +4.2
-1.0 +1.3 +0.5 +3.4 +2.7 +2.0
-1.5 +2.0 +1.1 +3.9 +4.6 +3.5
-2.0 +13.1 +13.6 +12.6 +21.7 +15.1 Ludiyana Mathauda et al., 2000
Fig. 11: Trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and radiation from 1979 to 2003
Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
Fig.12 : The relationship between rice yield attributed and growing season mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature
Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
Location year Grain yield (g/m2)
Percentage of ripened grain (%)
1000grain Dry
weight
Temperature during GFP
( 0 C)
Masture 1999 599.2 77.9 19.1 26.9
MastureH 1999 411.5 55.4 18.5 28.1
Masture 2000 591.2 83.4 20.1 27.8
MastureH 2000 427.6 60.7 19.0 29.3
Akana 1999 668.9 87.5 20.6 23.1
Takatuki 2000 574.3 60.7 20.4 26.6
LSD (0.05)
75.5 14.1 0.9
Table 13: Grain yield, yield components of rice cultivar Koshikari and mean temperature during the grain-filling in different location
Japan Kobata and Uemuki, 2004
Crops Temperature rise 1oC 2 oC 3oC
per cent reduction in yield
Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7
Rice 5.4 7.4 25.1
Maize 10.4 14.6 21.4
Groundnut 8.7 23.2 36.2
Ludiyana Hundal and Kaur, 1996
Table 14: Effect of increased temperature on productivity of crops in Punjab
Table 15 : Response of simulated grain yield of irrigated wheat to changes in temperature and CO2 in north India. (Aggarwal, et al., 2002).
Fig 13 :Impact of climate change on wheat yield in north India
• Grain yields of wheat decrease by 17% with a 2o C increase in temperature.
• Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm nullify the effect of 2o C rise in temperature.
Aggarwarl, et al., 2002
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, CCO
2, p
pm
20%
10% 0%-10% -20% -30%
-40%
2070
2010
Increase in temperature (o C)
Incre
ase in
CO
2 (p
pm
)
Parameter Control
UV-B at 0.56 Wm-2
Plant height (cm) 71 48
Pod number/plant 120 85
Yield /plant (g) 24 19
Germany Giller, 1991
Table 16: UV- B radiations on soybean plant growth and yield
Table 17: Effect of high temperature on productivity of different crops
Wheat yield q/ha
Season 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
productivity 17.38 14.02 13.67 20.12
% decrease over 2001-02
- -19.3 -21.3 +10.01
Rapeseed and Mustard yield kg/ha
productivity 884 540 360 470
% decrease over 2001-02
- -38.9 -59.3 -8.24
H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
Table 18: Temperature during March at Dhaulakuan and Akrot
>28 >30 >32 05
1015202530
200220032004
>28 >30 >3205
101520253035
200220032004
days
Temperature (ºC) Temperature (ºC)
H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
Solar radiation (MJ m-
2 day-1)Simulated grain yield
kg/ha% change from base
yield (3837 kg/ha)
3 5387 40
2 5111 33
1 4523 18
-1 3156 -18
-2 2503 -35
-3 1903 -50
Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007
Table 19 : Simulated wheat yield due to effect of solar radiation
Fig: Cumulative Effect of Temperature and Solar Radiation on Wheat Yield
Pakisthan Mukhta and Fayyaz-ul (2011)
Table 20: Effect of temperature during active tillering period on tiller production
Planting dates
Daily means of temperature
(ºC)
Daily mean Sunshine hours
Tiller production m-2
V1 V2 V3
13-07-1994 27.1 3.7 658 600 57827-07-1994 25.8 4.3 533 484 48013-08-1994 25.8 3.6 529 489 48411-01-1995 24.1 10.4 471 453 48925-01-1995 26.6 10.8 582 524 50704-02-1995 27.4 10.4 658 609 57310-07-1995 26.5 5.0 560 533 55625-07-1995 27.4 6.0 689 649 55012-08-1995 26.1 4.0 578 529 529
Hyderabad Lalitha et.al., 1999
Change in CO2 level , temp (ºC) and Solar radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)
Simulated grain yield kg/ha
% change from base yield (3837 kg/ha)
440 ppm
3 4369 14
2 4699 22
1 4726 23
-1 4550 19
-2 4255 11
-3 3776 -2
660 ppm
3 5781 51
2 6332 65
1 6541 70
-1 6229 62
-2 5950 55
-3 5537 42
Table 21: Simulated wheat yield due interaction effect of temperature, solar radiation and CO2 concentration
Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007
Table 22 : Change in Total Crop Duration due to Rise in Temperature
IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
Figure .14 : Yield Reduction in Different Cereal Crops with Temperature Rise
IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
IARI Tripathy et al.,2010
Fig. 15 . Changes in Grain Yield of Different Cereal Crops to Temperature Changes and Doubled Atmospheric CO2Conditions
Table 23: Interactive effects of CO2 and temperature on yield of maize and wheat
crop CO 2 ppm
Yield kg/ha
Existing Existing +3 ºC
% Deviation (+3 ºC)
Maize 350 3700 2337 -36.8
700 4314 3713 -13.8
wheat 350 3916 3339 -14.7
700 6131 5206 -15.08
Punjab kaur et al., 2012
Fig 16: Annual rainfall of Karnataka state and
Tumkur district. Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
Fig 17 : Productivity of various crops during the
period 1955 to 2000 Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
Table 24 : Impact of drought on productivity of pearl millet
Station Pearl millet yield in kg ha-1
% Decrease in yieldGood monsoon
year (1983)Mean of 3 drought years 1984-1987
Barmer 285 65 77Jalore 468 105 77Jodhpur 337 79 77Nagpur 721 265 63Pali 553 248 55
Jodhpur Singh et al., 1999
• Rise in CO2 level from 280-660 ppm has increased the grain yield (50-70 g m-
2) of rice and seed weight (17.85 g plant-1) of soybean and about 46.7 per cent pod yield of groundnut.
• Increase in temperature 2.0 0C over normal decreases the Crop duration
(3 & 7.7days), Grain yield (8.5& 12.2 q ha-1) in case of rice and wheat, respectively and also increase in solar radiation from 1-3 MJ m-2 day-1
resulted in increased yield of wheat from 18-40 %.
• Both maximum and minimum temperature has negative impact on yield , Grain yield of rice declined by 10% for every 1ºC increase in minimum temperature and decrease in wheat grain yield (21.3%), rapeseed pod yield (59.3%) at maximum temperature in march.
• Increase in the yield of maize and wheat due to interaction effect of temperature & CO2 was observed, but beneficial only at one unit increase in temperature and radiation at all levels of CO2.
Conclusions
• Research needs to find out appropriate management practices to sustain the present level yield in changed climate conditions.
• Evolving efficient and soil management practices in addition to identification or breeding of crops and varieties with higher water use efficiency, dry matter conversion ratio, positive response to temperature extremes and elevated CO2 .
Future line of work
Thank you