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Consequence Wheel
Reporter: Jason C. Duria BEEd III-A
The Futures wheel is a
method for graphical
visualization of direct and indirect
future consequences of a
particular change or
development. It was invented by
Jerome C. Glenn in 1971, when
he was a student at the Antioch
Graduate School of Education
(now Antioch University New
England).
Usage
The Futures wheel is usually used toorganize thoughts about a futuredevelopment or trend. Possible impactscan be collected and put down in astructured way. The use of interconnectinglines makes it possible to visualizeinterrelationships of the causes andresulting changes. Futures wheels canassist in developing multi-concepts aboutpossible future development by offering afutures-conscious perspective and aidingin group brainstorming.
How to do it?
The first step in creating a
future wheel is to select and
refine the issue statement that
will be evaluated. This is not
the specific change or event to
be mapped, but rather the
specific context of that change.
Step 1 – Define Issue
Burning
plastic
Step 2 – Identify Event(s)
Select one or more specific
trends, events, or actions you
wish to evaluate with a Futures
Wheel. Each specific trend,
event, or action would get its
own wheel.
Step 3 – Gather Appropriate
Participants
The process can be executed by asingle individual, Futures Wheels arebest created by a group so thatmultiple perspectives and multipleareas of expertise arerepresented. Once you know whatthe exact event or trend is that youare going to investigate, the next stepis to gather the appropriateparticipants to help with the creationof the Futures Wheel.
Step 4 – Identify Direct
ConsequencesThe next step in the process is to
brainstorm / identify only the DIRECT (or
1st-order) consequences of the event or
trend being evaluated. Do not try to
identify secondary (or 2nd-order)
consequences of direct consequences at
this time, but rather keep the group
focused on thinking laterally about the
issue, rather than linearly.
Burnin
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plastic
Step 5 – Identify Second-Order
Consequences
Once you identified all of the
direct consequences, the next
step is start with a single direct
consequence and identify any its
direct consequences. These are
dependent consequences and are
essentially the consequences of
the consequence.
Burnin
g
plastic
Step 6 – Identify Third-Order
(and further) Impacts
The next step is to continue the
process, but this time working with a
single 2nd-order consequence and
identifying any of its direct
consequences.
Advantages
The Futures Wheel technique …“Adds
rigor by helping people think through
how an issue may unfold or the
consequences of an event or strategy in
a thorough fashion. Avoids one-
dimensional, linear thinking. Helps move
the mind from linear, hierarchical and
simplistic thinking to more network-
oriented, organic and complex
thinking. Helps identify relationships and
unintended consequences.”
Disadvantages
A completed Futures Wheel essentially serves as a Rorschach test of the authoring group or the organization that were involved in its creation because the members of the group are most likely to identify impacts highlighting areas of concern. This bias is a result of the process and is best mitigated by having participants with a wide-range of concerns, responsibilities, and expertise.
“While the Futures Wheel method is
easily grasped by participants, an
undisciplined approach can result in
what is referred to as “intellectual
spaghetti” i.e. the generation of a
myriad of interactions that become so
complex that they tend to complicate
and confuse the implications of the
trend.
This method is limited to the
knowledge of the participants and
while information overload can occur,
confining analysis to the primary,
secondary and tertiary rings, allows for
the visualization of a vast amount of
qualitative information that has both
depth and contextual richness.”