Using Psychology Everyday

How you can analyze and How you can analyze and interpret information you receive interpret information you receive

everyday to understand its everyday to understand its validity.validity.

Eight Questions to Analyze and Interpret Everyday

Information

What is asserted or claimed to have occurred? What evidence is offered to support the

assertion or claim? What is being compared, and is the

comparison a fair one? What problems exist with the sample of

people and products studied? Were representative test conditions used? Were extraneous variables controlled? How consistently did the event occur? Was the statistical information presented and

used appropriately?

1. What is Asserted or Claimed to Have Occurred?

An assertion is a statement claiming something to be true without offering objective proof

Often assertions are based on incomplete information, partial or faulty analysis, or manipulated data

Determining the accuracy of an assertion depends on the outcome of gathering and analyzing additional evidence

Treat what was said as one of several possible explanations, and examine the claim in more detail

Begin by identifying the type of claim that was made

Four Types of Claims

Two or More Events Are RelatedIf two things appear to be associated, it doesn’t mean that one caused the other: apples and oranges

One Event Caused the Other to OccurDetermining cause/effect relationship depends on how certain criteria are met

Is change in one associated with or related to change in the other?

Did the cause actually occur before the effect?

Does the effect cease to occur when the cause is absent or removed?

Have other plausible and alternative explanations been ruled out?

Two or More People, Products, or Events Share the Same CharacteristicsNever accept the assertion that two things are alike until you explore how they’re different

Two or More People, Products, or Events Are Claimed to Be DifferentOne person’s claims that two things are different shouldn’t be taken as evidence that they do

2. What Evidence is Offered to Support the Assertion or

Claim?

What is the Source of the evidence?Personal experience and opinion

Personal biases distort observations

TestimonialsMany believe that a public figure wouldn’t endorse something

unless it performed as claimed

Expert opinionMost often, an expert’s opinion is window dressing. Is the expert speaking about an area in which s/he has expertise

Research findingsFacts and figures are only as good as the methods, processes,

and procedures used to produce them

3. What is Being Compared, and is the Comparison a Fair

One?

Evaluating comparisons when preexisting differences exist among groupsThe problem with comparing groups on the basis of preexisting characteristics is that they are seldom equal on all factors

Evaluating comparisons when groups are purposely made to be differentThe difference between experimental groups

Control group: the baseline group; the group set aside without the effectExperimental group: the group where the independent variable is

manipulatedThe difference between variables

Independent variable: the manipulated factor(s)Dependent variable: the measures taken of the effects of independent variables

Effects to Take Into Account

Extraneous VariablesCofactors that could interfere with the variable under study

The placebo effectPersonal biasesThe “Hawthorne Effect”

Three Problems with Comparison Conditions

A control group is absentThe comparison conditions lack a critical factorOne group is accidentally or purposely given

characteristics that enhance a favorable outcome

4. What Problems Exist with the Sample of People and

Products Studied?

People and products tested should be representative of the larger populationOne intent of data collection is to be able to develop conclusions that apply to the largest number of people

Two ways to get a representative sample populationSelect a random sample of people with predetermined characteristicsSelect people or things because they have certain characteristics of interest

5. Were Representative Test Conditions Used?

Often nonrepresentative test conditions are usedVariables that affect products and behavior seldom have the same influence under all conditions limit the ability to generalize

Interaction effect: the tendency for combinations of independent variables to produce behavioral effects that are different from the influence of any one of them acting alone

Interaction effects show up in many of our activities, such as facial recognition and recognizing physical characteristics of other ethnic and racial groups

6. Were Extraneous Variables Controlled?

We need to know that the outcome was due to the effects of the independent variableExtraneous variables are considered controlled if they affect all of the people or products tested equallyWhen individuals being studied know they are being studied, they can behave in the way they expect the experimenter wants them

The Hawthorne Effect

7. How Consistently Did the Event Occur?

ProbabilitiesWhen one event is more or less likely to occur than another

A probability statement doesn’t guarantee something will happen

It is a best estimate or guess of the chances

To assess how often something occurs on the basis of chance, you need to know how often that event might occur if there were no other factors influencing that event

Once you know the probability of something occurring on the basis of chance, you can determine the number of products, people, or

events that might occur on the basis of chance

Living with Blind Luck

Blind luck and coincidence are regular features of daily lifeWe spend a lot of time trying to identify patterns in random events or trying to explain them

Difficult to accept blind luck because we don’t know what a chance event looks likeRandom events can occur in streaks

Many expect that a “lucky streak” follows “bad luck”Gambler’s fallacy

How to Tell a Chance Happening

Things that occur with a high degree of frequency are often not due to chanceChance also means the average number of times you can expect something to occur on the basis of blind luckWith a small sample, something can occur frequently due to chance

Calculate how often an event would occur on the basis of chanceOnly if something occurs above the 15% level of pure chance can it be caused by some other factor

Use statistical tests to help youStatistical significance describes how two events can be different due to factors other than chance

Be cautious before making any decisionsWere a large number of tests conducted?Were appropriate comparisons or control conditions used?Did extraneous variables influence the outcome?Just because something exceeds chance, the experimental treatment didn’t necessarily produce it

8. Was the Statistical Information Presented and

Used Appropriately?

Variables don’t always affect a product or person the same way under all conditionsVariations in performance are a problem when it comes to describing how a number of people or products actually performedStatistics have the advantage of providing a precise summary and description of performance

Care must be taken when interpreting statistics, because it can be presented in a deceptive manner or be purposely distorted to manipulate behavior

Understanding Statistics

The AverageOften misinterpreted and abusedThree averagesMean: the sum of all the individual scores divided by the total number of scoresMedian: the score that has 50% of the scores above it and 50% below it

The better estimate of the “average”

Mode: the most frequently occurring score in a distribution

In general, the Mean and the Median are better than the Mode

More on Statistics

PercentageWhat was the number of people, products, or events a percentage was based on?

RanksTwo problems with rank orders:“Best” and “worst” are relative terms

The source of the ranks needs to be taken into account

Rank ordering of people, products, or events tends to be biased by those doing the ordering

More on Statistics

CorrelationsTwo events are relatedPositive and negative correlations

Correlations doesn’t mean one event caused the other

The illusion of correlationExpectations that certain things must be

relatedCan be based on experience or someone told you what to expect

Accurate testing of ideas demands that appropriate comparisons be made

Understanding the illusion of correlation helps to avoid developing inaccurate conclusions

More on Statistics

Correlations (Con’t)Invisible correlations

Occurs due to the absence of any expectations that two things will be related

Lack of information, denial, and the lack of the ability to properly classify events that affect us are to blame

When interpreting correlations, ask, “What other factors might be responsible?”

What’s missing from the relationship I’m focusing on?

What other factors could be related to those I’m looking at that might have produced the relationship?