Customer Development Class 1 And 2 090409

Advanced Entrepreneurship:Customer Development in High Tech

Introduction to the Course

Steve [email protected]

www.steveblank.com

Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Fall 2009

You Are Here

Idea 1st Round

Plan Liquidity

Company Timeline


You Are Here

Idea

Plan Liquidity

1st RoundCompany Timeline


How do You Get Here

Idea

Plan Liquidity

1st RoundCompany Timeline


Entrepreneurship

LogicalProcess


Entrepreneurship

LogicalProcess

IntuitivePassion

Part 1: Introduction to the Course

Part 2: Key Concepts

Today


Course Introduction

! Course Objectives

! Intro and Backgrounds

! How the Class Works

! Customer Development


Course Objectives

! Learn how to:" Reduce product/market risk" Organize sales, marketing and business

development when bringing a product to market" Understand its relationship with engineering

! Have Fun! Learn from Each Other


Course Prerequisites

! Officially – none! Realistically:

" Experience in bringing a new product to market" Entrepreneurship 295 or equivalent" Have written a business plan


Introduction and Backgrounds

! Steve Blank

! Guest Speakers

! Class


Introduction: Steve Blank8 startups in 25 years

2 strikeouts Rocket Science, Ardent2 walks ESL, Zilog2 singles Convergent, MIPS1 double SuperMac1 home run E.piphany

Non profits: Audubon, POST, Coastal CommissionBlog: www.steveblank.comTwitter: sgblank


Introduction: ClassWhy are you taking the class?

! How many of you have:" Been in start-ups?" Been in a startup that failed?" Raised or tried to raise money?

! How many are:" Sales, marketing or business development?" Engineers?


How the Class Works! Syllabus! 3 Application Exercises

" Individual projects" Max 2-pages" Use different company than the research project" Syllabus has assignment dates, due the week after" Electronic copy gets graded

! Research Project" Teams of 4 to 6" Using customer development model analyze company

success/failure, propose alternatives" Electronic copy gets graded

! Grading" Research Project (50%)" Application Exercises (25%)" Class Participation (25%)


Class Issues! “Tech-heavy”! “Enterprise-heavy”! For-profit versus non-profit! Startups versus existing companies! Methodology focused on product/customer

risk reduction" Doesn’t work for technology risks (i.e Biotech)

! Doesn’t match your experience or opinion

Customer Developmentin the High Tech Enterprise

Logistics



How the Class WorksPart 1

In & OutKey Concepts: MktRisk/Tech Risk, VerticalMkts, Types of Startups

Sept 4th

Class 1 & 2

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



Think!IMVUWebVan

Customer Development& Discovery - Part 1

Sept 5th

Class 3 & 4


Sept 4th

Class 1 & 2

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



TeamSelectionDraft Concept

Market TypeE-InkDiscovery - Parts 2 & 3Sept 24th

Class 5 & 6

Think!IMVUWebVan


Sept 5th

Class 3 & 4


Sept 4th

Class 1 & 2

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



ApprovedConcept

WildfireKittyhawk

Validation– Parts 1 & 2Sept 26th

Class 7 & 8



Class 5 & 6

Think!IMVUWebVan


Sept 5th

Class 3 & 4


Sept 4th

Class 1 & 2

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



CustomerDiscovery

MotiveValidation– Part 3Oct 16th

Class 9 & 10

ApprovedConcept

WildfireKittyhawk

Validation– Parts 1 & 2Sept 26th

Class 7 & 8



Class 5 & 6

Think!IMVUWebvan


Sept 5th

Class 3 & 4

In & OutBurger

Key Concepts: MktRisk/Tech Risk, VerticalMkts, Types of Startups

Sept 4th

Class 1 & 2

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



Team MeetingPriceline! Creation – Part 2! Creation Cases

Oct 17th

Class 11 & 12

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass




Oct 17th

Class 11 & 12

Team DraftCustomerValidation

Peppers &Rogers

! Company Building Part 1

Nov 13th

Class 14

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass




Oct 17th

Class 11 & 12


Peppers &Rogers


Nov 13th

Class 14


Nov 14th

Class 15

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass




Oct 17th

Class 11 & 12


Peppers &Rogers


Nov 13th

Class 14


Nov 14th

Class 15

CustomerCreation

SummaryDec 3rd

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass



ResearchPaper Due

PescaderoResearchConference

Dec 6th


Oct 17th

Class 11 & 12


Peppers &Rogers


Nov 13th

Class 14


Nov 14th

Class 15

CustomerCreation

SummaryDec 3rd

ResearchProject

ApplicationExercise

CaseClass


Reading

Class Text: Four Steps to the EpiphanyAssigned Reading: In ReaderBlogs: www.steveblank.com

http://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com/Presentations: www.slideshare.net/Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/lean-startup-circleTwitter: sgblank

ericries

watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2lE3fgj7QA for what you could be in store for


Angel/Study.net http://bcangel.gsb.columbia.edu

! All materials are on Angel/Study.net" Syllabus" Reading" Assignments" Presentations (after each class)


The Course



Customer Development

! Business Plans

! The Value of “Models” for an Entrepreneur

! Key Concepts" Market versus Technology Risks

" Vertical Markets

" Three Types of Startups


The Top Lies of Venture Capitalists

1. “I liked your company, but my partners didn't.”2. “If you get a lead, we will follow.”3. “Show us some traction, and we'll invest.”4. “We love to co-invest with other venture capitalists.”5. “We're investing in your team.”6. “I have lots of bandwidth to dedicate to your company.”7. “This is a vanilla term sheet.”8. “We can open up doors for you at our client

companies.”9. “We like early-stage investing.”

Source: Guy Kawasaki


The Top Lies of Entrepreneurs

1. “Our projections are conservative.”2. “(Big name research firm) says our market will be $50 billion in 2010.”3. “(Big name company) is going to sign our purchase order next week.”4. “Key employees are set to join us as soon as we get funded.”5. “No one is doing what we're doing.”.6. “No one can do what we're doing.”7. “Hurry because several other venture capital firms are interested.”8. “Oracle is too big/dumb/slow to be a threat.”9. “We have a proven management team.”10. “Patents make our product defensible.”11. “All we have to do is get 1% of the market.”

Source: Guy Kawasaki


One Way to Plan a Startup


Business Plans – Why?

! Why write a plan?" VC’s require it" Planning (Strategic/Financial/Ops)" Articulate Bus Model/Assumptions

! What’s wrong with a plan?" Static" Execution Oriented


The Value of “Models”

! Model = shorthand for complicated idea

" Check to see if the results are static or dynamic

! For example, …


Timmons Model of Entrepreneurship(The Business Plan)

Resources Opportunity

TeamCreativity Leadership

Communication

BusinessPlan


Moore Model of Entrepreneurship(Chasm + Life Cycle)


New Product IntroductionsWhat’s the Model?

! New Product introduction models" Checklist of what to and when to do it" Market size and business case" Models try to ensure that product matches market" Technology and development “gates”


StageGate™ Model(New Product Introduction)



Steve Blank Model ofEntrepreneurship)


Venture Capital Model of a Startup(Execution)

Concept/Bus. Plan

ProductDevelopment

Alpha Test/Beta Test

Launch/1st Ship


New Product IntroductionIt Doesn’t Always Work

! New Product Development Process" Works great for some new products, fails

miserably for others" Products usually are late, over cost" Typically fails to understand and satisfy

customer needs! Why?


Issues in New Product Intros

! Current models:" Confuse product development process with

customer needs" Treat all startups as the same

! We need a New Product Intro Process" Reduces Market Risk\Simple, understood by all" Founders commitment" Cross function organization" Solid homework


Problem: known Solution: known

Waterfall

Product Development - MicrosoftUnit of progress: Advance to Next Stage


Problem: known Solution: unknown

Agile (XP)!

“Product Owner” or in-house customer

Product Development - StartupAssumes Customers and Markets are Understood


Problem: unknown Solution: unknown

Customer Development Engineering

ScaleCompany

CustomerDiscovery

CustomerValidation

CustomerCreation

Hypotheses, experiments, insights

Data, feedback, insights

Product Development - Lean StartupAssumes Customers and Markets are Unknown


Agile Product

Development

The Lean Startup ModelAgile Product Development

! Continuous cycle ofProduct Development" Product release cycle in

hours not years" Tightly coupled with

customer development" Minimum feature sets,

maximum customercoverage


CustomerDevelopment

The Lean Startup ModelCustomer Development

! Continuous cycle ofcustomer interaction" Rapid hypothesis

testing about market,pricing, customers, …

" Extreme low cost, lowburn, tight focus

" Measurable gates forinvestors


CustomerDevelopment

Agile Product

Development

Lean Startup PrinciplesExtraordinary Value at Low cost in Little Time

! Leverages:" Commodity Technology" Agile management" Customer Development

! Designed to test hypothesisand answer the unknowns


The Lean Startup ModelCustomer Development Parallels Agile Development


CompanyBuilding

CustomerDiscovery

CustomerValidation

CustomerCreation

Agile Development

Concept /Concept /Business PlanBusiness Plan

AgileAgileDevelopmentDevelopment

ContinuousContinuousTestTest

ContinuousContinuousShipShip


Customer DevelopmentTurns Market Risk/Product Fit Hypothesis into Facts

! Discovery: Test hypotheses i.e. problem and product

! Validation: Build a repeatable and scalable sales process

! Creation: Create end-user demand and fill the sales pipeline

! Building: Scale via relentless execution

CompanyBuilding

CustomerDiscovery

CustomerValidation

CustomerCreation


Lean Startup Advantages

! Builds low-burn companies by design" Low cost market risk testing

! Organized around learning anddiscovery

! Right model for current conditions

CustomerDevelopment

Agile Product

Development

The next wave of capital efficient startups


The Value of “Models”

! Model = shorthand for complicated idea

! This class teaches a “model” for productintroduction

! How to reduce risk for customer/market fit

! Side effect is rethinking timing in Sales,Marketing & Business Development



Concept/Bus. Plan

ProductDev.

Alpha/BetaTest

Launch/1st Ship

Product Development

ScaleCompany


CustomerDiscovery

CustomerValidation

CustomerCreation



ScaleCompany

CustomerDiscovery

CustomerValidation

CustomerCreation

This is what our class is about


Key Concepts


www.steveblank.com


Class 2: Agenda

! Vertical Markets! Market Risk vs. Invention Risk! Case: In N Out! Three Types of Startups! Customer Development

" Definitions" Market Type effects


New Product Conundrum

! New Product Introduction methodologiessometimes work, yet sometimes fail" Why?" Is it the people that are different?" Is it the product that are different?

! Perhaps there are different “types” of startups?


Startup Checklist – 1What Vertical Market am I In?

! Web 2.0! Enterprise Software! Enterprise Hardware! Communication Hdw! Communication Sftw! Consumer Electronics! Game Software

! Semiconductors! Electronic Design

Automation! Cleantech! Med Dev / Health Care! Life Science / Biotech! Personalized Medicine


A Plethora of Opportunities


Market Risk vs. Invention Risk


Startup Checklist - 2

! Market Risk?! Technical Risk?! Both?


Startup Checklist - 3

! Opportunity Where does the idea come from?! Innovation Where is the innovation?! Customer Who is the User/Payer?! Competition Who is the competitor/complementor?! Sales What is the Channel to reach the customer?! Marketing: How do you create end user demand?! What does Biz Dev do? Deals? Partnerships? Sales?! Business/Revenue Model(s) How do we organize to make money?! IP/PatentsRegulatory Issues? How and how long?! Time to Market How long does it take to get to market?! Product Development Model How to you engineer it?! Manufacturing What does it take to build it?! Seed Financing How much? When?! Follow-on Financing How much? When?! Liquidity How much? When?


Execution: Lots to Worry About


Execution: Very Different by Vertical


Market Risk Reduction Strategy

In-N-Out Case


In-N-Out Secret Menu

! X by Y" X meat patties and Y slices of cheese

(for example, a 3 by 3 or a 2 by 4)! Double Meat

" Two meat patties without cheese.! Triple Meat

" Three meat patties without cheese.! Animal Style

" A mustard cooked beef patty served on abun with pickles, lettuce, tomatoes, extraspread and grilled onions. Any burger(including veggie and grilled cheeses) maybe made this way.

! Flying Dutchman" Two meat patties, two slices of melted

cheese and nothing else.! Protein Style

" Instead of a bun, the burger is wrapped inlettuce. Any burger (including veggie andgrilled cheeses) may be made this way.

! Veggie Burger (Wish Burger)" A burger without the meat and cheese.

! Grilled Cheese" Two slices of melted cheese, tomato,

lettuce and spread on a bun, with no meat.! Extra Everything

" Adds extra spread, tomato, lettuce, andonions (regular or grilled).

! Fries "Light"" Almost raw fries that are cooked for less

time.! Fries "Well" (aka "Wellies")

" Fries that are cooked longer to be extracrisp.

! Cheese Fries" Fries with two slices of melted cheese

placed on top.! Animal Style Fries

" Fries with cheese, spread, and grilledonions.

! Neapolitan Shake" All three shake flavors (strawberry, vanilla

and chocolate) combined in one shake.


In-N-Out Meat Factory


So Why Are We Talking About This?

New MarketResegmentedMarket

Existing Market


Three Types of Markets


Existing Market


Three Types of Markets

! Who Cares?! Type of Market changes EVERYTHING! Sales, marketing and business development

differ radically by market type


Existing Market


Definitions: Three Types of Markets

! Existing Market" Faster/Better = High end

! Resegmented Market" Niche = marketing/branding driven" Cheaper = low end

! New Market" Cheaper/good enough can create a new class of

product/customer" Innovative/never existed before


Existing Market


Existing Market Definition

! Are there current customers who would:" Need the most performance possible?

! Is there a scalable business model at this point?! Is there a defensible business model

" Are there sufficient barriers to competition fromincumbents?


Existing Market

Perfo

rman

ce

ExistingCompanies

Our Company


Oops, forgot about Time

Perfo

rman

ceOur Company

Existing Company Performance Growth

Time

ExistingCompanies

Today


Existing Market Risks

! “Better/Faster” is an engineering driven axiom! Incumbents defend high-end, high-margin

businesses! Factor in:

" Network effect of incumbent" Sustaining innovation of incumbent" Industry (or you own) “standards”

! “They’ll never catch up” is not a business strategy! Established companies almost always win


Resegmented Market Definition (1)Low End

! Are there customers at the low end of the marketwho would:" buy less (but good enough) performance" if they could get it at a lower price?

! Is there a business profitable at this low-end?! Are there sufficient barriers to competition from

incumbents?


Low-end Resegmentation“Good Enough” Performance

Perfo

rman

ce

Our CompanyAt the Low-end

Time

ExistingCompanies

Today

Existing Company Performance Growth


Resegmented Market Definition (2)Niche

! Are there customers in the current market whowould:" buy if it addressed their specific needs" if it was the same price?" If it cost more?

! Is there a defensible business model at this point?! Are there barriers to competition from incumbents?


Niche Resegmentation“Branding” has its place

Perfo

rman

ce

Time

Existing CompanyNiche for a New CompanyNiche for a New Company

Existing Customers New Niches


Resegmented Market Risks

! “Cheaper” is a sales-driven axiom! Incumbents abandon low-end, low-margin

businesses" For sometimes the right reasons

! Low-end must be coupled with a profitablebusiness model" Up migration


New Market Definition

! Is there a large customer base who couldn’t dothis before?" Because of cost, availability, skill…?

! Did they have to go to an inconvenient, centralizedlocation?

! Are there barriers to competition fromincumbents?


New MarketCustomers That Don’t Yet Exist

Perfo

rman

ce

Time

Existing Company

Existing Customers New Niches

New Market

New CustomersNew Markets


New Market Risks

! “New” is a marketing-driven axiom! New has to be unique enough that:

" There is a large customer base who couldn’t dothis before

" They want/need/can be convinced" Adoption occurs in your lifetime

! Company manages adoption burn rate" Investors are patient and have deep pockets


Hybrid Markets

! Some products fall into Hybrid Markets! Combine characteristics of both a new market

and low-end resegmentation" SouthWest Airlines" Dell Computers" Cell Phones" Apple iPhone?

What’s a StartupBusiness Model?

Extra


Business Model

1. A diagram that shows all the flows between yourcompany and its customers


Clean Tech MarketsTransportSmart

PowerRenewablesGreen

BuildingEnergy

EfficiencyAir, Water& Waste


Clean Tech Markets - RiskTransportSmart


BuildingEnergy

EfficiencyAir, Water& Waste

! Which markets have technology risk?! Which markets have customer risk?! Which have both?


Clean Tech Markets - RiskDefinitions

TransportSmartPower

RenewablesGreenBuilding

EnergyEfficiency

Air, Water& Waste

! Technology Risk" risk is in development of the product (i.e. fuel cells, thin-film

arrays, etc.) then customers automatically adopt! Customer risk

" risk is in customer and market adoption! Which have both?! You spend your time differently depending on risk

Next…

Business Plan Hypothesis


Size of Opportunity

LiquidityFollow-onSeed FinancingTeamManufacturingProd Dev ModelTime to MarketRegulatoryIP/PatentsBus/Rev ModelCustomer DevBiz DevMarketingSalesCompetitionCustomer

Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses

! Your business plan is a set of untestedhypothesis

! What are they?! How do you test them?! How do you execute them?


Clean Tech Markets -Hypotheses

! Size of Opportunity" TAM, SAM

! Customer" Who’s the end user? Economic buyer?

Reimburser?! Sales

" What’s the distribution channel?! Marketing

" How do you create end-user demand! Customer Development

" How do you test your hypothesis! Business Model

" How do all the parts work to create profits?! Financing

" What is the path to cash flow positive

Size of Opportunity


Finally…

Your Hypothesis Go Here




BuildingEnergy

EfficiencyAir, Water

WasteSize of Opportunity





BuildingEnergy

EfficiencyAir, Water

Waste

Size of Opportunity

ImportantIsThis

Liquidity

Follow-on

Seed Financing

Team

Manufacturing

Prod Dev Model

Time to Market

Regulatory

IP/Patents

Bus/Rev Model

CustomerDevelopment

Biz Dev

Marketing

Sales

Competition

Customer


Business Plan - Sum of Hypotheses

! Business plan collects your hypothesis! Adds facts as you know them today! Contains a plan of how to turn hypothesis into

facts! Extrapolates results if hypothesis turn into facts! Has a business model which is clearly articulated

Business Model…

Start with the Pieces


Business Model

! Goal is to get to a single diagram of yourbusiness

! Start by drawing pieces of your business" Problem/Opportunity" Market Size" Distribution Channel" Demand Creation" Financial assumptions

! Then put it all together

Problem/Opportunity

Why Are You in Business?

Pain Points in Inter-DistrictDevelopment of Curricula

Recognize Your MarketType

Can Save a Ton of Dollars


Market Type?

! Existing Market! Resegment a Niche! Resegment on Low Cost! New Market


Definitions: Types of Markets

! Existing Market" Faster/Better = High end

! Resegmented Market" Niche = marketing/branding driven" Cheaper = low end

! New Market" Cheaper/good enough can create a new class of

product/customer" Innovative/never existed before


Existing Market


Type of Market Changes Everything

! Market" Market Size" Cost of Entry" Launch Type" Competitive

Barriers" Positioning

! Sales" Sales Model" Margins" Sales Cycle" Chasm Width


Existing Market

• Finance- Ongoing Capital- Time to Profitability

• Customers- Needs- Adoption

How Big is It?

So if You Succeed Do I Care?


TotalAvailableMarket

Total Available Market, ServedAvailable Market, Target Market

109

ServedAvailableMarket

Target MarketSAM = how many can I reach

with my sales channel

TAM = how big is the universe

Target Market (for a startup) = who will be the most likely buyers

sizing up the market

SF

$123 billion tourismindustry inside the U.S.

$1 billion English travelguides sold annually

$210 million 20-35 yearold travelers

(Initial test market)


OLED’s - Billion DollarOpportunity

!"#$%&'())(*+,-./0&1+234&5*+67'43&4)4583*+(56&'93:48

;./0&;(<4&*=&->&'93:48

-93?48&/:80&"@AA'())(*+B

!"A%%&'())(*+B,

OLED TV market will grow to $15.29billion by 2015

Target products: Camcorders, DVDplayers and recorder, digital cameras,computer monitors, LCD and Plasma TV

YEAR 1 PROJECTIONS

Our target market is the FlatPanel display market.

Units sold : 1,000,000Price per unit : $700 - $1,000

Revenue from Royalties (assuming .5-1.0% of shelf price):Worst case = $3,500,000 Best Case = $10,000,000

Apex: ! 3.5M

Distribution ChannelHow Does Your Product Get to Your Customer?

Sales Ecosystem

Superintendant

IT Director

Dept. Head

TeacherTeacher

District

School

Discussion channelMandate channel

Sale

Engagement(Early Stages) Another

schoolin thedistrict

Anotherdistrict

!"#$%"&'$()#* IP +),'()-$./# 01'")2.C1D

2 patents owned by Apex!• Technology patent - SOLED• Long-Brite and inkjet printing process

Licensed Partners:• Sony• Samsung(Other possibilities - LG, Toshiba, Panasonic,DuPont)

Partners’ distribution channels• Sony• Samsung(Other possibilities - LG, Toshiba, Panasonic,DuPont)

Consumer electronics• Flat Screen TVs through

Fry’s, Best Buy, Magnolia,etc

Dollar flows:

License feesRoyalties

.C1D

Wages: founders &ConsultantsIP Costs: Lawyer& Patent costs.

Premises: Dev’t labs.

Patents

C.E-F1E;

Distribution Channel

Demand CreationHow Do You Drive Demand Into Your Channel?

Demand Creation

! State-by-state rollout: educational standards! Continuous iteration of feedback

! Hypotheses: Willthey adopt, use,and pay?

! 10 schools f2f:

! Sales: $1,066

! Travel: $1,000

CA Pilot

! Hypothesis: Howwell does it sellitself?

! All telemarket

! $533/dist

GrowAdoption

! Hypotheses: Willthey buy hands-off? Can it scale?

! CA telemarket

! F2f elsewhere

BroadAdoption

distribution and demand creation! Unique Idea: website and iPhone app form

symbiotic relationship

traffic

traffic

AdWords

Blogs (ex.Travelblog.org)Magazines

TravelApp

Listing

TravelSpy.com iPhone App

Financial AssumptionsWhat are the Ten Numbers that Matter?


Financial Assumptions

! Ten Numbers that matter depends on your business" Average selling price" Life time value" Material cost" Distribution channel cost" Customer Acquisition cost" Time to market" Time to cash flow positive" Etc.

! Do this before 45 pages of financials

Business ModelHow Do The Pieces Work Together?

Bird’s Eye View of our BusinessModel

Hardware($155)

Software (in-house)($1.00)

MyNote($156.00)

Online Distribution• Own website ($208+.3x)• Amazon.com ($40+32x)• eBay ($300+25x)

Offline Distribution• College bookstores($0.02)

Viral

Marketing

Target Market

$399.99

CustomerAcquisition

Cost:($41)

Demand Creation• SEO/SEM

• Blogs• Forums

• Bookstorepromotion

• Sales force• Viral marketing

• Website

END-USERS END-USERS

CITYBEATS.COMREVENUEREVENUE

SERVICE SERVI

CETwo Revenue StreamsTotal Revenue (year 1) = $ 90 KTotal Revenue (year 2) = $ 2.2 M

BUSINESS MODELiPhone Application Subscription Based Service

Nightlifevenues

Thirdparty

affiliates

$ 5/monthYear 1: $ 50KYear 2: $1.2 M

$ 2.99 (x.7)Year 1: $ 40KYear 2: $1M

March | 2011Critical Mass: 500,000 users

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Education

Customer Development Class 1 And 2 090409