View
537
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by David Elzinga titled "Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future"
Citation preview
© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
25th October 2012David Elzinga
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Global Energy system today
Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors
© OECD/IEA 2012
The future low-carbon energy system
The 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands
© OECD/IEA 2012
Only collective efforts of all sectors lead to the 2DS
The core of a clean energy system is low-carbon electricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
A variety of technologies is required to achieve the 2DS
Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.
CCS20%
Renewables29%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency
31%
End-use fuel switching9%
Nuclear8%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching
3%
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000Other industries
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
2 DS
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt C
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050.
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (
mill
ion)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Space heating22%
Water heating12%
Cooking15%
Cooling and ventilation5%Lighting
5%
Appliances10%
Space heating, 7%
Water heating, 2%
Cooling and ventilation, 3%
Lighting, 3%
Other15%
Total energy savings 33 EJ
Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Services
Residential
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector.
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
Bill
ion
hous
ehol
ds Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy and CO2 impacts of electricity generation
Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions.
Power38%
Industry21%
Transport18%
Buildings15%
Other transformation6%
Agriculture2%
Power38%
Industry26%
Transport20%
Buildings9%
Other transformation5%
Agriculture2%
Total primary energy use: 509 EJ in 2009
Total energy-related CO2 emissions:31.4 Gt in 2009
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to decarbonise power generation
Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Additional emissions 6DS
Electricity savings 28% (21%)
Fuel switching and efficiency 5% (2%)
Other renewables 5% (7%)
Wind, offshore 7% (7%)
Wind, onshore 7% (5%)
CSP 5% (8%)
PV 7% (8%)
Hydro 4% (3%)
Nuclear 14% (17%)
CCS 18% (22%)
Note: The first percentage number refers to its share in cumulative CO2 reductions between 2009 and 2050, while the percentage in parentheses refers to the annual reduction, in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation scenarios
05 000
10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal
67%49%
3%
13%
12%
19%36%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
4DS
In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050.
05 000
10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal
67%
9%14%
13%
19%
19%
57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation capacity
Generation capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity system flexibility
Power system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in
response to variability, expected or otherwise.
± MW / time
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexibility needs and resources
Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range of resources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system
markets, operation and hardware.
© OECD/IEA 2012
T&D infrastructure investments in the 4DS and 2DS are similar
...but sectoral allocation differs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5
..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity is at the core of a sustainable energy system
ASEAN Context
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 emissions in the 2DS are brought back to today’s level.
ASEAN : Sectoral Contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
ASEAN : Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS
While the electricity mix in the 4DS is dominated by coal, renewables provide more than half of the electricity in the 2DS in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to decarbonise ASEAN power generation
Renewables provide almost half of the CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050
Portfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challenges and opportunities.
25%
2%
7%
2%
19%
20%
5%
2%
4%
14%
0%
21%
6%
14%
10%
8%
23%
24%
5%
5%
24%
22%
17%
8%
28%
24%
22%
18%
60%
14%
13%
16%
7%
28%
2%
6%
6%
6%
10%
10%
21%
21%
1%
28%
15%
10%
7%
15%
29%
6%
19%
14%
16%
18%
22%
19%
9%
18%
7%
15%
17%
6%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ASEAN
Brazil
China
EU
India
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
US
Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables
© OECD/IEA 2012
In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050
Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS .
0100200300400500600700800900
1 000
2009 2030 2050 2030 2050
4DS 2DS
g CO
2-eq
/ kW
h
World European Union United States China India ASEAN
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is not a panacea
The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role
in reducing emissions from gas
© OECD/IEA 2012
Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Buildings energy consumption
Strong population growth in ASEAN countries will drive energy demand upwards
© OECD/IEA 2012
Passenger light-duty vehicle sales
Passenger LDV’s are expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport energy use in 2050
Shipping energy use is substantial and efficiency improvements are expected to be limited
© OECD/IEA 2012
Final Global Comments
© OECD/IEA 2012
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Total
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Additional invest-ment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there
2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it.5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Key messages
© OECD/IEA 2012
www.iea.org/etp
For much more, please visit