Decision making under uncertainty

Complex Risk Systems view

Interdisciplinary Multidisciplinary Transdisciplinary

Challenges – Uncertainty

• Common interest in uncertainty • Cross-sectoral focus • Development of non-RCUK partnerships • Measurable impact • Potential growth area for councils

RCUK Uncertainty Research

Existing RCUK initiatives

Multiple networks, institutions, training centres

Call for Networks Proposals for networks to build 1-2 (£750k

max) Multidisciplinary academic & practitioner networks focussed on developing new tools and approaches to enable decision making under uncertainty.

Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community.

Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches

Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches Identify areas for new multi-disciplinary research & knowledge translation to inform future research council investments

Research needs Development of methods to assimilate uncertainty in decision theory for extreme events

Research needs Formalisation of analysis of behaviour/ cognition/ perception and subjective based approaches into statistical approaches

Research needs Methods to characterise, quantify, communicate and propogate uncertainty that could be universally applied to complex systems

Research needs Developing decision theory to handle multi-modal uncertainty in complex (and fast changing) systems

Challenges • Split decision-making • Different cultures, schedules, priorities,

organisational objectives • Confusion/

conflict with exiting initiatives

• Indistinct boundaries

Key points

A great opportunity to: • work across disciplines • have substantial impact

by providing value to non-RCUK partners

• Influence the fast evolving RCUK research agenda

Questions ?