DemographyDemography

Instructor: Aijaz Ahmed SohagInstructor: Aijaz Ahmed Sohag– MSc MSc

(Env:Sc),M.A.S(H.S.A.),MBA(Health (Env:Sc),M.A.S(H.S.A.),MBA(Health Mgt),MPH , PhDMgt),MPH , PhD

Prepared by: Abdulwasay BalochPrepared by: Abdulwasay Baloch

Demography Demography

• ‘’‘’Scientific or statistical study of Human Scientific or statistical study of Human population concerning their population concerning their sizesize (no. of (no. of persons in a population at a given time) persons in a population at a given time) distributiondistribution (arrangement of population in (arrangement of population in space at a given time) and space at a given time) and structurestructure (distribution of population regarding age, (distribution of population regarding age, sex, changes occur due to growth or decline sex, changes occur due to growth or decline of population resulting from births, deaths, of population resulting from births, deaths, and in or out migration)’’and in or out migration)’’

Population studies and its Population studies and its importanceimportance

• Besides demographic variable( birth, death, Besides demographic variable( birth, death, migration) and it has also relationship withmigration) and it has also relationship with– Socio economicSocio economic– PoliticalPolitical– BiologicalBiological– GeneticGenetic– GeographicalGeographical– EnvironmentEnvironment– Health and the likeHealth and the like

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSDEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS

• FertilityFertility• MortalityMortality• MarriageMarriage• Migration Migration • Social mobilitySocial mobility

Demographic CycleDemographic Cycle

• Stage 1 HIGH StationaryStage 1 HIGH Stationary• High birth rate, high death rateHigh birth rate, high death rate

• Stage 2 Early ExpandingStage 2 Early Expanding• Death rate begins to decline while birth Death rate begins to decline while birth

rate remains unchanged(e.g. South Asia rate remains unchanged(e.g. South Asia & Africa)& Africa)

• Stage 3 – Late ExpandingStage 3 – Late Expanding• Death rate declines still further and birth Death rate declines still further and birth

rate tends to fall, Population continue to rate tends to fall, Population continue to grow.grow.

• Birth exceeds death rateBirth exceeds death rate

• Stage 4 – Low stationary Stage 4 – Low stationary • Low birth rate, low death rate with Low birth rate, low death rate with

population becomes stationary.Zero population becomes stationary.Zero population(e.g. industrialized nations like population(e.g. industrialized nations like Sweden)Sweden)

• Stage 5 – decliningStage 5 – declining• Birth rate less than death rateBirth rate less than death rate• Population starts decliningPopulation starts declining

Example; Germany and Hungary. Example; Germany and Hungary. Negative Growth Rate)Negative Growth Rate)

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

• Slow growth less than 0.5Slow growth less than 0.5• Moderate growth 0.5 to 1Moderate growth 0.5 to 1• Rapid growth 1 to 1.5Rapid growth 1 to 1.5• Very rapid growth 1.5 to 2Very rapid growth 1.5 to 2• Explosive growth; greater than 2Explosive growth; greater than 2

Fertility indicators or StatisticsFertility indicators or Statistics

• Birth RateBirth Rate• No of live births during the year/ * 1000 No of live births during the year/ * 1000

over estimated mid year populationover estimated mid year population

• General fertility rate;GFRGeneral fertility rate;GFR– No of live births in an area during the year/ * No of live births in an area during the year/ *

10001000

Mid year female population in same area and Mid year female population in same area and same yearsame year

• Total fertility rate; TFRTotal fertility rate; TFR– No of children a woman would have if she No of children a woman would have if she

were to pass through her reproductive yearswere to pass through her reproductive years

• Age specific fertility rate;ASFRAge specific fertility rate;ASFR– No of live births in an area during the year/ * No of live births in an area during the year/ *

10001000

Mid year female pop specific ageMid year female pop specific age

Demographic trendsDemographic trends

1.1. Total populationTotal population

2.2. Growth rateGrowth rate

3.3. population doubling timepopulation doubling time

4.4. Life expectancyLife expectancy

5.5. Literacy rateLiteracy rate

6.6. family sizefamily size

7.7. World population dayWorld population day

8.8. Govt deptGovt dept

9.9. NGO, Family Planning Assosiation of Pakistan, FPAPNGO, Family Planning Assosiation of Pakistan, FPAP

Growth rate, Annual Growth Growth rate, Annual Growth RateRate

• When the crude death rate is subtracted from When the crude death rate is subtracted from the crude birth rate, the net residual is the the crude birth rate, the net residual is the annual growth rate, exclusive of Migrationannual growth rate, exclusive of Migration

• Growth rate is dependant onGrowth rate is dependant on– Age distributionAge distribution– Marriage customsMarriage customs– Numerous cultural, social and economical factorsNumerous cultural, social and economical factors

Fertility/ NatalityFertility/ Natality

Actual reproductive performance of a womanActual reproductive performance of a woman•It is the actual bearing of childrenIt is the actual bearing of children•A woman reproductive period is roughly from A woman reproductive period is roughly from 15 to 4915 to 49•A woman married at 15 and living till 49 with A woman married at 15 and living till 49 with her husband is exposed to the risk of pregnancy her husband is exposed to the risk of pregnancy for 35 years and may give birth to 42 children for 35 years and may give birth to 42 children ( bearing one child every 10 months)( bearing one child every 10 months)

FecundityFecundity

• Physiological capability of a woman to Physiological capability of a woman to reproduce or Physiological ability among reproduce or Physiological ability among woman to conceivewoman to conceive

Population Doubling TimePopulation Doubling Time

• Time that would take for a population to Time that would take for a population to doubledouble

• As the population increase in an As the population increase in an compound interest formula, a 1% per compound interest formula, a 1% per year increase would cause the population year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 yearsto double in about 70 years

• If population increasing 3% per year, If population increasing 3% per year, that doubling time will be 23.3that doubling time will be 23.3

Causes of High FertilityCauses of High Fertility

• Since human fertility falls far below Since human fertility falls far below fecundity, there must be some explanations fecundity, there must be some explanations to this differenceto this difference– the effect of disease and health condition of the effect of disease and health condition of

women are significantwomen are significant– PhysiologicalPhysiological– SocialSocial– EconomicalEconomical– Demographic Demographic

OVER OVER POPULATION(dependency/sex POPULATION(dependency/sex ratioratio

“ “WHEN THE POPULATION IS NOT IN BALANCE WITH WHEN THE POPULATION IS NOT IN BALANCE WITH THE RESOURCES” THE RESOURCES” •Total dependency ratio; Total dependency ratio;

0-14 years +65 years and above/* 1000-14 years +65 years and above/* 100

15 to 65 years15 to 65 years

•OR children + elderly /*OR children + elderly /*

working agedworking aged

OVERPOPULATION (DR -cont)OVERPOPULATION (DR -cont)

• DEPENDENCY RATIO CAN BE DEPENDENCY RATIO CAN BE CALCULATED FROM AGE CALCULATED FROM AGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATIONDISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION

• Dependency Ratio in Pakistan is 84 Dependency Ratio in Pakistan is 84 • It means that for every 100 persons in It means that for every 100 persons in

economically active ages there are 84 economically active ages there are 84 dependents as compared to Japan where dependents as compared to Japan where dependency ratio is 44%dependency ratio is 44%

OVERPOPULATION- DR (cont)OVERPOPULATION- DR (cont)

This difference is mainly due to high This difference is mainly due to high fertility andfertility and

high mortality in Pakistan and low fertility high mortality in Pakistan and low fertility and low mortality in Japan and low mortality in Japan

OVER POPULATION (cont)OVER POPULATION (cont)

• SEX RATIO:SEX RATIO:• ““it is expressed as the NUMBER of males it is expressed as the NUMBER of males

per 100 females”per 100 females”• number of males/number of number of males/number of

females*100females*100

Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid

• It is a pictorial/graphical presentation of age – sex It is a pictorial/graphical presentation of age – sex composition of a population composition of a population

• It provides a demographic statement of the current age It provides a demographic statement of the current age & sex distribution of a population& sex distribution of a population

• Several facts could be ascertained by a glance at the chartSeveral facts could be ascertained by a glance at the chart– Whether the population is old or youngWhether the population is old or young– What is the dependency ratioWhat is the dependency ratio– At what rate the population is increasingAt what rate the population is increasing– What are the sex ratios at different age groupsWhat are the sex ratios at different age groups– Was there a recent change in fertility or mortality Was there a recent change in fertility or mortality

experience of this population etcexperience of this population etc

• USES OF POPULQTION PYRAMID ratio USES OF POPULQTION PYRAMID ratio can be calculatedcan be calculated

• Male to female ratioMale to female ratio• Population changesPopulation changes• Dependency Ratio can be calculatedDependency Ratio can be calculated• Measures the economical Measures the economical

resources(shelter,food)resources(shelter,food)

URBANIZATIONURBANIZATION

• Increase attributed toIncrease attributed to::• Natural growthNatural growth• Migration from villagesMigration from villages• Attraction of better livingAttraction of better living• AvailabilityAvailability• Social and economicalSocial and economical

DENSITY OF POPULATIONDENSITY OF POPULATION

• Density of population is the “number of Density of population is the “number of persons living per square kilometer”persons living per square kilometer”

• Pakistan PD is 225.19 (2010)Pakistan PD is 225.19 (2010)• Our country PD was 217(2008)Our country PD was 217(2008)

Assignment 1Assignment 1

• Many govts in developing countries Many govts in developing countries consider fertility reduction to be an consider fertility reduction to be an important component of their over all important component of their over all strategy for improving standards of strategy for improving standards of living. What measure has been attributed living. What measure has been attributed with fertility reduction [ 1 ]with fertility reduction [ 1 ]

Assignment 2Assignment 2

• How you differentiate factors affecting How you differentiate factors affecting high fertility and determinants of fertility high fertility and determinants of fertility [ 1.5 ] Demographic factor has a role in [ 1.5 ] Demographic factor has a role in increase fertility.Elaborate [ 1.5 ]. Define increase fertility.Elaborate [ 1.5 ]. Define Sex Ratio. In what scenarios sex ratio Sex Ratio. In what scenarios sex ratio may be calculated separately[2]may be calculated separately[2]

Assignment 3Assignment 3

• What is the simplest measure of fertility What is the simplest measure of fertility [ 1 ]. [ 1 ].

• Why it is called crude measure [ 2 ]. Why it is called crude measure [ 2 ]. • Total Fertility Rate TFR is not a summary Total Fertility Rate TFR is not a summary

measure but a set of seven numbers. measure but a set of seven numbers. Explain [2 ]Explain [2 ]

•WORLD POPULATION DAY WORLD POPULATION DAY – 11 – 11 JULY 2014JULY 2014

• THEME; Aims on awareness of global THEME; Aims on awareness of global population issues; HUNGER, population issues; HUNGER, DISEASE,WARFARE, WELFARE & DISEASE,WARFARE, WELFARE & HUMAN RIGHTSHUMAN RIGHTS