4s Barcelona - 2 September - 2016IPCC and the Double Logic of International Expertise

Kari de Pryck, Tommaso Venturini, Audrey BaneyxUniversite de Geneve, King’s College London, Sciences Po Paris

AIm and plan of the presentation

1. Brief presentation of the IPCC and the stakes around the representation of developing countries and regions

2. Presentation of the database of IPCC scientific participations (not members)

3. Preliminary results

a. Developed vs developing country representation

b. Regional representation

A few things to know

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5 Assessment Reports AR1 (1990) AR2 (1995) AR3 (2001) AR4 (2007) AR5 (2014)

3 Working Groups

WG I WG II WG III assesses the physical scientific assesses the vulnerability of assesses options for mitigating aspects of the climate system socio-economic and natural climate change through limiting and climate change systems to climate change or preventing GHG emissions and consequences of climate change enhancing activities removing them and options for adapting to it

3 types of role IPCC Bureau Selected Authors Invited Authors IPCC Chair and Vice-Chairs Lead Authors (LA) Contributing Authors (CA) WG/TF Co-Chairs and Vice-chairs Contributing Lead Authors (CLA) Review editors (RE)

A few things to know

Scientific representation in the IPCC

The BureauScientists elected by the Panel. Mainly answers to criteria of

● North/South representation● geographical representation following WMO regions

Selected rolesfor chapters

“The composition of the group of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors for a chapter, a report or its summary shall aim to reflect:

● the range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views and expertise;● geographical representation (ensuring appropriate representation of experts from developing and

developed countries and countries with economies in transition); there should be at least one and normally two or more from developing countries;

● a mixture of experts with and without previous experience in IPCC;● gender balance.” (IPCC, 2013, p. 5-6)

Invited authorsfor chapters

No requirements

Why is representation important?

Methodology

General trends

● Increase in the number of participations● WG1 > WG2 > WG3 (except AR2)

● For WG1, invited > selected ● For WG2 and WG3, selected > invited

1. North/South - general evolution

North/South - role balance

North/South balance - roles’ evolution

CLA + RE + LA

● Except for AR1, rather stable participation ratio for developed/developing countries

CABureau

North/South balance in working groups

● WG1 is the least balanced working group

● Unbalance is higher for invited roles

Top 10 IPCC countries

Countries CLA + RE + LA

USA 817

UK 321

Australia 173

Germany 171

Canada 151

China 149

Japan 143

India 140

France 126

Netherlands 111

Countries CA

USA 1538

UK 591

Germany 344

Australia 259

Canada 245

N/A 217

France 159

Switzerland 134

Japan 122

Netherlands 121

Countries Bureau

Brazil 6

USA 6

Australia 5

Canada 5

China 5

Japan 5

Russian Federation 5

UK 5

Argentina, Cuba, France, Germany, India, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia

4

Most active countries

All other countries

UK

USA

All other developing

South AfricaBrasil

India

China

2. Regional representation

Negotiating blocks- Groupings evolution

1,6%

Further work

Conclusion

● Persistence over time of asymmetry between developing and developed country(higher in WGI than in WGII and WGIII);

● This asymmetry tends to decrease in the highest roles of the IPCC, (particularly the Bureau) due to the rules set by the IPCC to enhance the participation of developing countries. However, when such rules do not apply (CA), the asymmetry grows.

● The IPCC remains dominated by a few countries (Western countries; US and UK - 39%) among developing countries, the IPCC is dominated by BASIC countries - 48%

● The regional balance is also asymmetrical in the IPCC

● However, it is less asymmetrical than other categorizations(e.g UN regions and UNFCCC grouping)

Thank You!Kari de Pryck, Tommaso Venturini, Audrey Baneyx