Economic impact session may 2010

The Economic Impact of International Students Around the World

Jason BaumgartnerIndiana University Bloomington

Julie Chambers

Institute of International Education

Robert GutierrezInstitute of International Education

NAFSA 2010 Annual ConferenceJune 2, 2010; 1:45‐3:00pmKansas City, Missouri

Presentation Topics

IIE Open Doors Data on U.S. International Educational Exchange

International Student Economic Impact in the U.S.

Global Student Mobility Trends

Questions and Discussion

Open Doors

2009 Introduction

The Institute of International Education (IIE) is one of the largest and most experienced higher education exchange agencies in the world

Open Doors is an annual statistical survey conducted by IIE since 1948, with support from the U.S. Department of State since 1972

4 surveys: International Student Census; U.S. Study Abroad Survey; International Scholars Survey; and Intensive English Programs Survey

Annual survey of U.S. campuses’ international student enrollments

Respondents: Regionally and nationally accredited U.S. higher education institutions

Timeframe: 2008/09 enrollments

Definition: non‐immigrant international students in the U.S. on temporary visas at the postsecondary level

Open Doors

International Student Census

The number of international students in the U.S. increased 8% in

2008/09 to a record high

of 671,616 international students.

Total International Student Enrollment Trends

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,00053/54

58/59

63/64

68/69

73/74

78/79

83/84

88/89

93/94

98/99

03/04

08/09

New International Student Enrollments

New international student enrollment increased 16%

to

200,460 in 2008/09, following increases of 10% the

previous two years.

131,946 142,923157,178

173,121200,460

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Non‐Degree

Graduate

Undergraduate

Places of Origin of International Students

Top 10 Places of Origin of International Students

Rank Place of Origin 2007/08 2008/09 % of Total% Change

from 07/08

World Total 623,805 671,616 100.0 7.7

1 India 94,563 103,260 15.4 9.2

2 China 81,127 98,235 14.6 21.1

3 South Korea 69,124 75,065 11.2 8.6

4 Canada 29,051 29,697 4.4 2.2

5 Japan 33,974 29,264 4.4 ‐13.9

6 Taiwan 29,001 28,065 4.2 ‐3.2

7 Mexico 14,837 14,850 2.2 0.1

8 Turkey 12,030 13,263 2.0 10.2

9 Vietnam 8,769 12,823 1.9 46.2

10 Saudi Arabia 9,873 12,661 1.9 28.2

Top Five Places of Origin, Recent Trends

India (103,260)

China (98,235)

South Korea(75,065)

Canada (29,697)

Japan (29,264)

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

U.S. Geographical Distribution

The top 5 host states

(California, New York, Texas, Massachusetts and Florida)

hosted 43%

of international students in 2008/09.

Institutional Type

Doctorate institutions

host the largest number of international

students (59% of the total).

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

DoctorateInstitutions

Master'sInstitutions

BaccalaureateInstitutions

Associate'sInstitutions

SpecializedInstitutions

Academic Level:UndergraduateGraduateNon‐Degree/OPT

Top 10 Host Institutions

Rank Institution State Total1 University of Southern California CA 7,4822 New York University NY 6,7613 Columbia University NY 6,6854 University of Illinois ‐

Urbana‐Champaign IL 6,5705 Purdue University ‐

Main Campus IN 6,1366 University of Michigan ‐

Ann Arbor MI 5,7907 University of Texas ‐

Austin TX 5,7038 University of California ‐

Los Angeles CA 5,5909 Boston University MA 5,03710 Michigan State University MI 4,757

TOP 10 TOTAL (9% of all int’l students): 60,511

Fields of Study

39% of international students are studying the fields of Business

& Management and Engineering, the top 2 fields of study.

SocialSc iences

9%

Undeclared 3%Bus ines s & Management

21%

Phys ical & Life Sciences

9%

Education 3%

Humanities 3%

Agriculture 1%

Other 11%

Engineering18%

Intens ive Englis h 4%Health

5%Arts5%

Math &Computer

8%

http://opendoors.iienetwork.org

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact for 2008‐09: $17.6 Billion

http://www.nafsa.org/publicpolicy/default.aspx?id=17174

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: The Algorithm

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Enrollment Data

Compute economic impact only for students reported in IIE Open Doors. Institutions that do not provide information are not represented.

Conduct separate analysis for the undergraduates and graduates, and then consolidate the result set in the final report.

Students on optional practical training (OPT) are counted in Open Doors, and included in the enrollment counts on the reports, but they are exempted from the analysis.

Note: Enrollment reports represent peak enrollment, and not necessarily enrollment levels throughout the year.

NAFSA International Student

Economic Impact: Expense & Funding Data

Tuition & fees and living expenses are derived from Wintergreen Orchid (formerly from Peterson’s or College Board) data collected on surveys completed by institutions every year.

Students at institutions reporting extremely low values or zero values for expenses are estimated to have expenses based on a weighted average for the institution’s state location and Carnegie type.

Percentage of U.S. funding for a student is based on Open Doors primary source of funding with the following filters:–

(1) whether a student is an undergraduate or graduate–

(2) the institution type based on Carnegie codes.


Economic Impact: Dependent Data

Percentage of married students separately for undergraduates andgraduates based on IIE Open Doors and a 85% probability they are in the United States.

A 60% probability of a child per couple.

A spouse increases the living expenses by 25% and a child by an additional 20%.

Dependents living expenses total $434 for 2008‐09 and account for 2.5% of the overall economic impact.

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Top 10 Cities

CITY STATE STUDENTS IMPACTNew York NY 28,471 $880,204,000

Boston / Cambridge MA 21,357 $738,072,000

Los Angeles CA 16,569 $518,500,000

Chicago IL 12,878 $395,321,000

Philadelphia PA 9,646 $314,041,000

Washington D.C. DC 8,485 $304,122,000

San Francisco CA 8,526 $278,850,000

Houston TX 13,014 $272,135,000

Atlanta GA 7,339 $182,193,000

Pittsburgh PA 6,548 $181,979,000

TOTALS: 132,833 $4,065,417,000

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Top 10 Congressional Districts

NAME PARTY DISTRICT STUDENTS IMPACTMichael Capuano Democrat MA – 08 20,604 $705,354,000

Jerrold Nadler Democrat NY – 08 13,605 $461,374,000

Eleanor Norton Democrat DC 8,485 $304,122,000

Henry Waxman Democrat CA – 30 9,339 $303,221,000

Charles Rangel Democrat NY – 15 9,237 $257,979,000

Chaka Fattah Democrat PA – 02 7,485 $254,999,000

Diane Watson Democrat CA – 33 8,196 $242,877,000

Bobby Rush Democrat IL – 01 6,320 $215,012,000

Maurice Hinchey Democrat NY – 22 7,320 $204,667,000

Sheila Jackson Lee Democrat TX – 18 10,143 $204,533,000

TOTALS: 100,734 $3,154,138,000


Economic Impact: Currency Comparison

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Impact of Currency

According to this analysis the average international student would need

to spend less than 21,000 Euros (E.U.) or less than 18,000 Pounds (U.K) in

order to pay less than the $26,000 impact they bring to the U.S.

The impact of the global financial crisis has resulted in a strengthened

U.S. dollar and a reversal of recent currency trends. This is furthered by

current economic volatility in EU countries such as Greece.

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Capacity, Cost, and Community

Capacity: There is a large U.S. capacity as international students comprise less than 4% of the overall higher education market. International students in Australia, United Kingdom, and other European countries currently comprise 15% ‐ 20% of the higher education population.

Cost: Students will consider the value versus the large expense of higher education. The caliber of the institution and the competitiveness of admissions may help drive up value for such institutions.

Community: There is an improved perception of the U.S. while recent events in other countries, such as Australia, have generated some negative perceptions that have directly impacted the flow of international students to those countries. This reinforces the value of the cross cultural experience and the impact those experiences may have in the decision making process for international students.

NAFSA International Student Economic Impact: Questions to Consider

Questions to consider:

Will the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen against other currencies or go back down when various global economic conditions (i.e. debt problems in EU) improve? What impact will currency play in the future trends of international student enrollments?

How might currency trends change U.S. students decisions about study abroad?

How will the projected increase of U.S. students entering college further increase the competitiveness of programs in the U.S. while the currency markets find a new baseline as the global economy stabilizes?

How might cross cultural experiences influence international enrollment and what role should universities take to enhance that experience?

Global Student Mobility Trends

Robert Gutierrez

Senior Manager of Research and Evaluation

Institute of International Education (IIE)

[email protected]

International Students Worldwide, Selected Years 1995 ‐ 2007

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Num

ber o

f stude

nts

(millions)

International Student Population Growing

Over 3 million students are being educated outside their home countries, a 59% increase since 2000.

By 2025, almost 8 million students may be studying internationally.

Sources: Indicator C3, OECD Education at a Glance 2007, 2009UNESCO Global Education Digest 2009

France9%

Germany8%

Australia7%All others

28%

U.K.13%

China6%Canada

4%Japan4%

U.S.21%

U.S.28%

France 7%

Germany 9%

U.K.11%

All others34%

Spain 2%Belgium

2%

Australia 4%

Japan 3%

Host Country Shares of International Students

Source: Atlas of Student Mobility (data period: 2001, 2008)

2008Worldwide: 3 million students

U.S.: 624,000 students

2001Worldwide: 2 million students

U.S.: 547,000 students

How “international”

are the leading host countries’

campuses?

The 671,616 international students in the U.S. comprise less than 4%

of total U.S. higher education enrollment, with only 172 institutions

hosting 57% of all international students in the U.S.

Top Countries' International Enrollment as aPercentage of Total Higher Education Enrollment, 2007‐08

3.5%

16.3%

12.0% 12.0%

22.5%

0.8%

U.S. U.K. France Germany Australia China

Category Target Current Status

China 300,000 by 2020 195,000 (Atlas, 2008)

Japan 300,000 by 2020 123,000 (Atlas, 2008)

Jordan 100,000 by 2020 21,500 (UNESCO, 2006)

Malaysia 100,000 by 2010 24,400 (UNESCO, 2006)

Singapore 100,000 by 2015 80,000+ (Singapore Education)

Setting Targets: The Emerging Hosts

The Atlas of Student Mobility: Introduction

What is Atlas: a collaborative network of organizations sharing mobility data

Began in 2003; a recognized need for better understanding of data in a cross-country context

Updated on a rolling basis based on each country’s collection cycle

Data reported include: country of origin, total and international student enrollment population, leading destinations for outbound students

Other resources, partner publications, Global Education in the News archives

Atlas of Student MobilityOnline at

atlas.iienetwork.org

Country Profile Page: CHINA

Economic impact

• Australia

– International education activity contributed A$17.2 billion in export income to the Australian economy in 2008-09.

– The higher education sector generated $9.5 billion in export income (57.1% of total on-shore earnings).

– Australia receives the most int’l. students from China, India, Malaysia, Singapore and other SE Asian countries

Source: AEI. Export Income to Australia from Education Services, 2008-09 from http://www.aei.gov.au/AEI/PublicationsAndResearch/Snapshots/20091110_pdf.pdf

Economic impact

• The UK

– According to British Council, international students contribute more than £8.5 billion to the UK economy.

Source: British Council, Annual Report 2007, p.6, from http://www.britishcouncil.org/annual-report/PDF/AnnualReport_2007-08.pdf.

• Canada

– Has attracted a greater share of international students over the past decade, whose net contribution to the economy is worth C$5 billion.

Source: Katz, E. (2009). Imagine, Cooperative Branding! International

Educator Regional Spotlight 2009. Washington, DC: NAFSA: Association of

International Educators.

Economic impact

• Japan– Of incoming international students in Japan in

2007, 89.7 percent were privately financed international students, 8.5 percent were Japanese government sponsored students, and 1.8 percent were foreign government sponsored students. Overall, 91.5 percent of incoming international students in 2007 brought funding from international sources to Japan.

– The number of privately financed incoming international students in Japan has more than doubled from 41,390 in 1998 to 106,297 in 2007, while the number of foreign government sponsored incoming international students has steadily increased in the same period, from 1,585 in 1998 to 2,181 in 2007.

Source: JASSO, Support Programs for International Students, p.1, from http://www.jasso.go.jp/about_jasso/documents/outline08_04.pdf.

Economic impact

• New Zealand– The economic impact of export

education in New Zealand excluding offshore education earnings is approximately $2.1 billion for 2007/08. This is an increase from earlier figures for estimating economic impact of export education that include offshore education earnings. These figures were $545 million in 1999 and $1.3 billion in 2001.

Source: The Economic Impact of Export Education, p. 1, from http://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/35368/ EconomicImpactReport08.pdf)

www.iie.orgInformation on IIE programs & services

facebook.com/IIEglobalLatest updates on IIE news & events

twitter.com/IIEglobalQuick alerts on international education news & trends

www.iienetwork.orgResources for international education professionals

opendoors.iienetwork.orgData on academic mobility to and from the U.S.Fi

ve W

ays to Con

nect w

ith IIE

Questions and Discussion

Jason BaumgartnerIndiana University Bloomington

[email protected]

Julie Chambers

Institute of International Education

[email protected]

Robert GutierrezInstitute of International Education

[email protected]

NAFSA 2010 Annual ConferenceJune 2, 2010; 1:45‐3:00pmKansas City, Missouri