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Presentation by Manish Bapna, Executive Vice President and Managing Director, World Resources Institute at the June 29, 2013 Energy Sub-forum on “New Energy, New Era” as part of the “Third Global Think Tank Summit” hosted by by Energy Observer magazine in Beijing, China.
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能源与生态文明ENERGY FOR AN ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION
主讲人Manish Bapna
执行副总裁 兼 常务董事 世界资源研究所
Executive Vice President, WRI
COAL煤炭
Photo Credit: Flickr/Peter Garnum
(WRI, 2012)
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
(WRI, 2012)
INDIA印度
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
(WRI, 2012)
INDIA印度
CHINA中国
COAL | PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY煤炭 | 计划新增煤电产能
COAL | AIR QUALITY IMPACTS煤炭 | 空气质量影响
COAL | COAL DEVELOPMENT AND WATER RISK煤炭 | 煤炭发展与水资源危机
COAL | A NEW U.S. APPROACH?煤炭 | 一个新的美国减排思路?
“ 所以今天,为了我们的孩子和所有美国人的健康和安全着想,我要求美国国家环境保护局为新建的和现有的电厂制定完整的排放标准,
结束发电厂不受限制的温室气体排放现状。”- 美国总统奥巴马
“So today, for the sake of our children, and the health and
safety of all Americans, I’m directing the Environmental
Protection Agency to put an end to the limitless dumping of
carbon pollution from our power plants, and complete new
pollution standards for both new and existing power plants.”
- US President Barack Obama
NATURAL GAS天然气
Photo Credit: Flickr/Johnny Shaw
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS RESERVES天然气 | 页岩气全球储量
(EIA, 2013
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
(EIA, 2009-2012)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20300
2
4
6
8
10
Av
era
ge
He
nry
Hu
b s
po
t p
ric
e (
$)
2009
(EIA, 2009-2012)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20300
2
4
6
8
10
Av
era
ge
He
nry
Hu
b s
po
t p
ric
e (
$)
2009
2010
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
(EIA, 2009-2012)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20300
2
4
6
8
10
Av
era
ge
He
nry
Hu
b s
po
t p
ric
e (
$)
2009
2010
2011
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
(EIA, 2009-2012)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20300
2
4
6
8
10
Av
era
ge
He
nry
Hu
b s
po
t p
ric
e (
$)
2009
2010
2011
2012
NATURAL GAS | SHALE GAS PUTS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON NATURAL GAS PRICES天然气 | 页岩气对天然气价格造成了下行压力
SHALE | SHALE DEPOSITS AND WATER RISK页岩 | 页岩储藏与水资源危机
SHALE | A ‘Transition’ Fuel for U.S.页岩气 | 一种美国的“过渡性”能源
Photo Credit: Flickr/Oly Pentax
“...... 这是一种过渡燃料,可以在更少的碳排放情况下推动我们的经济,发展和部署未来更清洁的能源经济所需的更多技术。”
- 美国总统奥巴马“…It’s the transition fuel that can power our economy with less
carbon pollution even as our businesses work to develop and
then deploy more of the technology required for the even
cleaner energy economy of the future.”
- US President Barack Obama
RENEWABLES可再生能源
Photo Credit: Flickr/IFC Infrastructure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Quarterly
Bill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rsRENEWABLES | WHERE NEXT FOR INVESTMENT?
(Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013)
N.B. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$268.7BN(2012)
RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2012 GLOBAL INVESTMENT可再生能源 | 2012 年全球投资情况 China
中国 24%
Germany德国 8%
India 印度 3%
United States 美国 13%
Other 其他 51%
Source: BNEF
Total Invested: $269 Billion总投资额: 2690 亿美元
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY可再生能源 | 风电装机容量
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States
To
tal
Ins
tall
ed
Win
d C
ap
ac
ity
(G
W)
Source: BP
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY可再生能源 | 太阳能发电装机容量
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States
To
tal
Ins
tall
ed
So
lar
PV
Ca
pa
cit
y (
GW
)
neck and neck
Source: BP, (purple represents uncertainty in the BP, BNEF and REN21 numbers)
BMU - E I 1Development of renewable energy sources in Germany in 2012 22
RENEWABLE ENERGY | US TO DOUBLE DOWN可再生能源 | 翻番
“ 这意味着工作机会 – 因制造风力涡轮机而创造的工作机会,现在能为近1500 万个家庭提供电力。
我今天宣布的计划将帮助我们再次翻番我们的风电和太阳能发电。”
- 美国总统奥巴马
“And that means jobs – jobs manufacturing the wind turbines that now
generate enough electricity to power nearly 15 million homes.
The plan I’m announcing today will help us double again our energy from
wind and sun”
-US President Barack Obama
CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS MASSIVELY COSTLY
Syria
Nepal
Lebanon
Cambodia
Moro
cco
Algeria
Peru
Benin
Bangladesh
Egypt
Pakista
nIra
n
Nigeria
C.A.R
.
Avera
ge
China
Tajikist
an
Ghana
0
2
4
6
8
10
Co
st
of
en
vir
on
me
nta
l de
gra
da
tio
n a
s %
of
GD
P e
qu
iva
len
t
9.2% OF GDP
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
谢谢THANK YOU