LECTURE:08

Energy Planning & Sustainability

M. A. Kamal, Ph.DDirector General

National Academy for Planning and Development

3

Outline:

1. Introduction2. Sustainable energy3. Energy Sources4. Pillars of sustainable energy5. Sustainable energy sources6. Consumable Energy7. Energy planning 8. Energy Planning Framework9. Principles of sustainable development10. Sustainability dimensions in relationship with energy11. Sustainable energy planning12. Characteristics of sustainable energy planning13. Energy and the Millennium Development Goals14. Recommendations for LDC15. PRINCIPLES AND GOALS OF ENERGY POLICY16. Conclusion

1.1 Energy is central to sustainable development and poverty reduction efforts.

1.2 It affects all aspects of development --social, economic, and environmental-- including livelihoods, access to water, agricultural productivity, health, population levels, education, and gender-related issues.

1.3 None of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be met without major improvement in the quality and quantity of energy services in developing countries.

1.4 Provision of energy services, from the supply side to transmission/distribution and use, must include management, and good management requires tools. Energy planning is a tool for managing the community energy system through assessing and balancing supply and demand.

1. Introduction

1.5 Energy has strong relationships with all the three main dimensions of sustainable development.

1.6 Human well-being and improvement of social welfare greatly depend upon affordable access to energy services.

1.7 Almost all the goods and services that are necessary for communities’ development are linked to the provision of sufficient energy supply.

1.8 Energy is also among the important driving forces that can affect the environment both by extraction of energy from natural resources and by energy use.

2. Sustainable Energy2.1 Right from the beginning in the 1980s, when the

term ‘sustainable development’ came into global consideration, energy was seen as an important aspect.

2.2 The key role of energy in future development is emphasized in the book ‘Our Common Future’ (1987), reflecting its relationship with environmental, economic, social and institutional aspects, as well as the dilemmas associated with its contribution to a sustainable future.

2.3 Sustainable energy is the provision of energy that meets the needs of the present without compromising

the ability of future generations to meet their

needs.

3.1 The primary energy sources that are used for providing these services are mainly non-

renewable (oil, natural gas, coal, peat). Utilization of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal, hydro power, wood, tidal, etc.) has also been developed over the last decades; however, their share in total primary energy supply is still low.

3. ENERGY SOURCES

Hydropower Uranium

Coal

Natural GasOil

BiomassWind

Source: MME / BEN, 2007

3.2 ENERGY RESOURCES

Natural Gas 20,9%

*Other 0,7%

Combustable Renewables & waste 9,8%

Hydro

2,2%

Nuclear

5,9%

Coal/

peat

26,5%

Coal/peat 26,5%

3.3 According to the International Energy Agency, the total share of renewable energy sources was about 12.7% in 2007.

4. Pillars of sustainable energy

4.1 The twin pillars of sustainable energy are:

i. Energy efficiency : "Any energy generation, efficiency & conservation source where: Resources are available to enable massive scaling to become a significant portion of energy generation, long term, preferably 100 years.." – Invest, a green technology non-profit organization.Energy Intensity is the amount of energy consumed per unit of service or activity. Embodied energy may be reduced by designing durable, adaptable products and buildings which are made from local, renewable materials.

ii. Renewable energy: naturally replenished

5.1 Sustainable energy sources are most often regarded as all renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectricity, solar energy, wind energy, wave power, geothermal energy, bio-energy, and tidal power.

5.2 It usually also includes technologies that improve energy efficiency.

5. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES

6. Consumable Energy

6.1 Fossil Fuel

6.2World Oil Production Deffeyes Prediction (2001)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5Pro

duct

ion

(bil

lion

bbl

/yr)

1860 80 1900 20 40 60 80 2000 20 40 60 YearSource: Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak (2001)

6.3 Consumable Energy (Nuclear)i) Fission power plants exist, fusion plants not yet. ii) Brings 10 billion people up to top 20% lifestyle

Need 8,000 additional uranium plantsExhaust all uranium fuel in 10 years

iii) If we use breeder reactors Uranium then adds plutonium and thorium to fuel cycleUranium will last 700 years (2x life of coal)

i) Solar power density = 1.36 kW/m2

• Exo-atmospheric incident power density

ii)Solar Electric costs 10X fossil electricPrice competition due to tax credits todayLarge Solar Plant reduces BiomassLarge Solar Plant does not harvest Carbon

iii) Water power is developed in USProduces 1 to 6% of energy in US

6.4 RENEWABLE ENERGY

iv) Wind power is developing Capable of ~ 1 to 12% of US base loadHawaii now has wind capacity = 20% of base loadPeak capacity unusable due to inability to control

v) Off Peak Storage remains a challenge

6.4 RENEWABLE ENERGY

7. Energy planning

7.1 Energy planning is known as a means to manage community energy systems. It has been(and still is)applied in many countries as a tool for setting up future energy policies ranging from national to local levels.

7.2 Energy planning and sustainability aspects has two theoretical pillars:

i. Planning Theoryii. Principles of Sustainable Development

8. Energy Planning Framework

Planning Discipline

Environmental

Planning Science

Social

Planning System

Economic

Planning Process

Institutional

Planning Theory

Energy Planning

Sustainable Development

9. Principles of sustainable development

10. Sustainability dimensions in relationship with energy

10.1 Energy and the environmental dimension

10.2 Energy and economic dimension 10.3 Energy and the social dimension 10.4 Energy and the institutional

dimension

11. Sustainable energy planning11.1 The energy crisis of the 1970s has increased the

need for application of energy planning as a tool for better management of community energy systems.

11.2 Adding the term ‘sustainable development’ into the political agenda in 1980s has increasingly

engaged environmental, economic and social issues in decision-making and has also influenced planning processes.

11.3 These changes, together with technological developments, have added to the complexity of community energy systems.

11.4 New approaches to existing energy planning methods have been taken to be able to deal with the new circumstances (or in order to adapt them for the new sustainability paradigm) by, e.g., increasing the share of renewable energy resources in energy supply systems, focusing on more efficient energy production i.e. co-generation and CHP utilization, etc.

12.Characteristics of sustainable energy planning

12.1 Integration of the sustainability dimensions in energy planning

12.2 Institutional guidelines 12.3 Sufficient public private

participation 12.4 Long-term planning perspectives 12.5 Flexibility against unexpected

changes

13. Energy and the Millennium Development Goals

13.1 Many of the LDCs are off-track in meeting the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs). The crisis is most severe in sub-Saharan Africa where there is continuing food insecurity, disturbingly high child and maternal mortality, growing numbers of people living in slums and an overall rise in extreme poverty. In South Asia there has been little progress in meeting the MDGs and a majority of the population is living below the poverty line.

13.2 The energy challenges that underlie MDG achievement are best illustrated by the number of people who do not have access to modern energy services. It is estimated that worldwide there are 2.5 billion people who rely on traditional fuels such as wood, charcoal, and dung as their principal source of energy for cooking and heating.

13.3 Almost 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity. In light of these daunting figures, energy’s important role in underpinning MDG achievement is now being recognized by the international development community. This is due to the fact that energy is a prerequisite for meeting all of the MDGs because of its inherent linkage with poverty alleviation, education, gender equity, health, and the protection of the

environment

14. Recommendations for LDC

Recommendations for LDC to Overcome the energy crises are:

i. Integrate energy considerations into MDG-based national development strategies

ii. Mobilization of investmentsiii. Develop institutional capacity

15.1 Energy Security

15.2 Reasonable Tariff Policy

15.3 Attendance Services for Entire Population

15.4 Minimum Cost Expansion considering Social-environmental Constraints

15.5 Strengthening of Planning

15.6 Matrix Diversification

15.7 National Integration

15.8 National Energy Sources Fostering, Renewable and Competitive

15.9 National Technology Development

15. PRINCIPLES AND GOALS OF ENERGY POLICY

16.1 The world is changing. There is no denying this reality because we come face to face with it every day—every time we swipe our debit cards at the grocery store or at the gasoline pump and especially as we sit back in the comfort and confines of our homes and watch the evening news in a state of constant apprehension.16.2 As the world transforms before our eyes, global trepidation over climate change and our energy use grows.16.3 Energy consumption is of particular concern because energy

supports our economies and lifestyles; we need energy to enjoy all the benefits and conveniences of modern life especially in developed nations.16.4 Everything we consume and produce requires energy. It is inevitable to search for Sustainable Energy to continue the rhythm of life in the world.

16. Conclusion

Thank you