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Jonathan Lash highlights key issues that are expected to be important in the coming months.
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Environmental Stories to Watch:
2010
Jonathan Lash
World Resources InstituteJanuary 7, 2010
Global Vision for a Sustainable Earth
Practical Solutions for People
Tracking the Illegal Cut Rep. John F. Lacey
Lacey Act Enforcement
Chesapeake legislation?
Matt Petros
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Average dollars per pound of annual nitrogen load reduction
Sources: Agricultural BMPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates Inc. Preliminary, 2009. Chesapeake Bay: Next Generation of Tools and Actions to Restore the Bay: Preliminary Economic Analysis of Options . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; WWTP upgrades: WRI analysis using plant upgrade costs; New practices: Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Fisheries Service, Oyster Advisory Commission. December 20, 2008 conference proceedings: Oyster restoration economic and ecologic cost offsets. Available online at: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/oysters/mtgs/122007/meeting122007.html; New practices (cont’d): Suwanee River Algal Turf Scrubbing System Concept Design Report; Additional agricultural BMPs from Wieland, Robert, et al. 2009. Costs and Cost Efficiencies for Some Nutrient Reduction Practices in Maryland. Maryland Department of Natural Resources Coastal Program.
Stormwater retrofits
Enhanced NMP
WWTP upgrades
-High-
Cover crops
Land retirement
Cons.tillage
Grassed buffers
Forestbuffers
Restored or constructed
wetlands
21.90
47.40
6.603.30 3.20 3.10 1.50 1.20
Stormwater*WWTPAgricultureNew practices
7.004.70
Native oyster
aquaculture
Algal turf scrubbing
3.20
Average Cost of Selected Nitrogen Reduction MeasuresDollars per pound of annual nitrogen reduction
ForestharvestBMPs
WWTP upgrades
-Low-
15.80
200 - 600
Stormwater mgmt for new development
92.40
2 Copenhagen Meetings
by Kuznetsov_Sergey
2 years ago in Bali“Developed countries want developing
countries to have a commitment. I don’t think it’s possible”-African Delegate
“Developing Countries so far have successfully resisted …pressures…and
threats which we have faced to undertake commitments.”
- G77 Chair
Unexpected Commitments:• Brazil – 36-39% below BAU, 15-18% below 2005 by
2020
• Mexico – 50% reduction by 2050 using cap and trade
• Indonesia – 26% below BAU by 2020
• South Africa – Emissions peak and start down by 2020
• China – reduce intensity of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 – 45% below 2005 level
• India – reduce carbon intensity 24% by 2020 and by 2030 reduce carbon emissions by 37% from 2005 levels
Mads Nissen/EPA
Failed Negotiations
Copenhagen OutcomeTARGET:
COMMITMENTS:
VERIFICATION:
REDD, ADAPTATION, TECHNOLOGY:
FUNDING:
LEGAL ACCORD:
<2°, NO-50%
All Major Economies Not Enough for <2°
All Major Economies Report & Respond
Good Progress, But no Decision
No Deadline
$10 Billion $100 Billion Commission
The Old G8
Telegraph.co.uk
The New C5
http://www.chinadaily.com.cnPhoto: Bloomberg
Photo: Rajeev Bhatt
World Economic ForumCenter for American Progress
ABC: Karen Barlow
China’s Carbon Intensity Commitment
• 12th 5 year plan• Green power buy• Clunker phase out
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Original forest cover
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Current forest cover
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Current forest cover
Formerly forest, now croplands
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Current forest cover
Formerly forest, now croplands
Formerly forest, now pasture
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Formerly forest, now croplands
Formerly forest, now pasture
Intact Forest Landscapes
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Working Forest Landscapes
Formerly forest, now croplands
Formerly forest, now pasture
Intact Forest Landscapes
Tropical deforestation 2000-2005
Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009
The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost
Working Forest Landscapes
Forest landscape restoration potential
(million hectares, excluding the boreal)
Higher probability Lower probability
Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands
Temperate 49 190 158 592
Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259
Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456
Total 272 1063 379 1306
The Trio
LCV Score: 90%
LCV Score: 87%
LCV Score: 10%
*Lifetime Score from League of Conservation Voters’ National Environmental Scorecard 2008
“Gang of 16” Democrats
Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV)
Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR)
Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA)
Evan Bayh (IN)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Benjamin Nelson (NE)
Jeff Bingaman (NM)
Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND)Tim Johnson (SD)
“Gang of 16” Democrats
Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI)
Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV)
Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR)
Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA)
Evan Bayh (IN)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Benjamin Nelson (NE)
Jeff Bingaman (NM)
Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND)Tim Johnson (SD)
C
C CCC C
CC C
CCC
CC
CC
C
CC
C
CC
Coal data from Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) http://cait.wri.org/
& states where coal is 60% or more of electricity fuel mix
States with Unemployment levels higher than the National mean
(10.2%)
Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment—October 2009
10.9%
12.5%
11.2%
11%
11.2%
15.1%
13%
11%
10.5%
11.3%12.9%
12.1%10.5%
Actions Done or Underway
Planned or Likely in 2010
Mobile Sources § 202 Endangerment Finding (Expected 3/2010)
Joint EPA-DOT Vehicle Emissions & Efficiency Standards (Expected 3/2010)
Stationary Sources GHG Reporting Rule (Completed)
New Source Performance Standards for Cement Kilns
Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) pre-construction permitting (BACT) (Expected 3/2010)
New Source Performance Standards for Electric Generating Units;Possibly Other Categories
Title V operating permit requirements for major sources
NSPS at State Level for Existing Sources—cap-and-trade or traditional performance standards?
EPA Actions Underway and Likely
State Actions Underway and Likely• Northeast States - Low Carbon Fuel Standard
• California - stricter vehicle emissions standards for model year 2017 and beyond.
• Three regional cap-and-trade programs collaborate. • States likely to assert authority under the Clean Air Act.
Bretton Woods Mount Washington Resort
Old Arrangements Are Changing