Bringing Research Insights to the Policy Process in California

Jordan Ramalingam & Joey Dinh

Presentation Outline

● Methodology of writing policy briefs● Project Summaries

o Climate Policy Risks Among CA Farmerso Cellulosic-Ethanol & CA Fuel Portfolio

● Conclusions/Recommendations

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Writing Policy Briefs

● Emphasize implications

● Concise & focused

● Understandable

Climate Policy Risks Among California Farmers

Title: Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers

Problem Statement● Climate policy risk

o Potential threat with policies to farmer adaptability

o Poses economic, environmental, and social risks to farmers.

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Hypotheses● Perceptions of climate

change will affect response

o Previous climate experiences

o Experiences with previous environmental policies

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Background (Methodology)● Surveys conducted in Yolo

County

● Analysis of variables by structural equation model (SEM)

● Dependent/Independent variables

Results● Most believed in CC but

won’t feel effects

● Past policy experiences did not affect participation but it does affect their perception of climate change

● Perceived CC risks affect participation and regulation concern

Conclusion● Farmers prefer incentive

programs over regulations

● Need communication between climate change and effects on farmers

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Transportation Fuel Portfolio and Cellulosic Ethanol● Based on research done by UC

Davis Faculty: Civil Engineers Yuche Chen and Yueyue Fan

● Article: Transportation fuel portfolio design under evolving technology and regulation: A California case study

Problem Statement/Background ● California is dependent on

Gasoline

● Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

● Alternative low carbon fuels must become a bigger part of the market to meet the LCFS

● In other words: Biofuelso Specifically, cellulosic

ethanol http://themodernape.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Biofuel.jpg

What is Cellulosic Ethanol?● Biofuel made from plant residue and other non-food plant based

sourceso Corn cobs, crop residue, wood chips, leaves

● One quarter the carbon intensityof gasoline

● No impact on food markets

http://inhabitat.com/u-s-energy-dept-gives-105m-to-make-fuel-from-corn-waste/

http://www.mississippi-crops.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/CornStalks2.jpg

Methods of Analysis● Fuel portfolio model

o Analyzes from 2011-2020● Main parameters for the model

o Minimize system wide costo Meet the LCFSo Meet demand

● 4 major fuels consideredo Midwest and CA Corn Ethanol, Brazilian Sugar Cane Ethanol,

Cellulosic Ethanol and Gasoline● Measured the impact of a breakthrough in the cellulosic ethanol

industry on cost and emissions

http://www.cleantechinvestor.com/portal/images/stories/magazine/MAR10/bp_sugarcane.jpg

Results- Baseline Scenario● Baseline Scenario:

optimal market fuel forecast until 2020, assuming no major breakthrough

● Brazilian ethanol replaces Midwest corn ethanol and is replaced by cellulosic ethanol

● Cellulosic Ethanol will expand by 2017

Conclusions- The Bottom Line● The earlier the breakthrough, the greater the cost and

emissions reductions by 2020● Cellulosic ethanol must greatly expand in the market

by 2017 to guarantee compliance with the LCFS

Project Liberty: in construction, soon to be opened

http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/10601/poet-dsm-provides-update-of-project-liberty

● The industry is expected to

expand by 2017

Recommendations From the Briefs

Farmers Perception on Climate Change● Establish direct lines of

communication between policymakers and constituents

● Use more of a carrot (rather than stick) approach

Transportation Fuel Portfolio and Cellulosic Ethanol● Encourage R&D to

advance this technology● Capitalize on

breakthroughs● Set goals to ensure the

industry has developed by 2017