FORECASTING HR SUPPLY AND DEMAND

GROUP MEMBERS Imdad ul haq

CONTENTS Introduction Forecasting HR Supply Factors Affecting HR supply Forecasting HR Supply Methods Forecasting HR Demand Factors affecting HR Demand Forecasting HR Demand Methods Conclusion

Introduction

Human Resource Forecasting Process of projecting the organization future

HR need (demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a given set of assumptions about the organization policies and the environment conditions where it operate.

Without Forecasting we can not asses the distinct between the supply and demand

Forecasting HR supply The purpose of identifying future HR supply

requirements is to determine the number of employees require for each job and their knowledge, skills , abilities and other characteristics.

HR supply forecasting is essential in determining the characteristics of hiring sources with the predetermined planning horizon in order to establish whether future HR supply is sufficient to match future HR demands

Factor affecting external Forecasting HR supply Supply and Demand of jobs or skills Education attainment levels within a

region Compensations pattern based on

experience , occupation or Education immigration and emigration patterns

within the area Forecast of economic Growth an decline

Factor affecting Internal Forecasting HR supply

Organizational features (e.g ., staffing capabilities )

Productivity – Rates of productivity , productivity changes

Rates of promotion , demotion , transfer and turnover

Forecasting HR supply methods

Trend Analysis Competency model Replacement charts

Trend Analysis Trend analysis involves collecting and

evaluating data to identify patterns of information that might impact future

A method of forecasting that assume past trends and ratios in employee movements are stable and indicative of future trends and ratio in employee movement

One of the simplest method for Forecasting future HR supply

For Example , an organization reviewing historical data may realize that every year approximately five of their staff retire , six percent resign and three percent are dismissed

Competency model Competencies are behaviors that

encompass the knowledge , skills and attitude required for successful performance

Competency modeling is the activity of determining the specific competencies that are characteristic of high performance and success in given job

Competency model focus on matching the right skills or competencies needed for each job with the skills available with in the organization

Replacement chart

A chart used to estimate the vacancies in higher level jobs and identifying how potential HR supply can fill these vacancies via internal movements for lower level jobs

Replacement chart provide identification of potential replacements for vacancies within the organization

Generally, a Replacement chart includes information about employees performance readiness to fill the position, and education

Forecasting HR Demand Forecasting HR demand is the process

of estimating the future HR requirement of right quality and right number

HR demand forecasting requirement is to be estimated keeping in view the organization plan over given period of time

Job analysis and forecasting about the quality of potential HR facilitates demand forecasting.

Factor affecting Forecasting HR Demand Human Resource Demand Forecasting depends on several factors, some of which are given below.

Employment trends; Replacement needs; Productivity; Absenteeism; and Expansion and growth.

Forecasting HR Demand methods Managerial Judgment  Work Study Technique  Econometrics Models

Managerial Judgment This technique involves two types of

approaches i.e. 'bottom-up approach' and 'top-down approach'

Under the 'bottom-up approach', line mangers send their departmental requirement of human resources to top management

Under the Top-down approach', top management forecasts the human resource requirement for the entire organization and various departments.

Work-Study Technique

This technique is also known as 'work-load analysis'. This technique is suitable where the estimated work-load is easily measureable. 

Under this method, estimated total production and activities for a specific future period are predicted

Under this method demand of human resources is forecasted on the basis of estimated total production and contribution of each employee

  Econometrics Model

These models are based on mathematical and statistical techniques for estimating future demand

Under these models relationship is established between the dependent variable to be predicted and the independent variables

Using these models, estimated demand of human resources can be predicted.

Conclusion

Forecasting is a process of making statements about events those actual outcomes have not yet been observed

HR forecasting is all about estimating future demand and supply of HR in an organization

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