Future skills and competences in the pulp and paper industry

 

Steve Bainbridge, CedefopVienna, 22 February 2016

Past and forecast employment, EU (millions)

Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

Labour saving technology?

Shares of broad occupation groups in manufacturing and sector of wood, paper, print and publishing

Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

Woo

d, p

aper

, pr

int,

publ

ish-

ing

(2.6

mil)

Who

le m

anu-

fact

urin

g (3

2 m

il)

Woo

d, p

aper

, pr

int,

publ

ish-

ing

(2.4

mil)

Who

le m

anu-

fact

urin

g (3

0.7

mil)

2015 2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

24%31% 29%

35%

10%

11% 9%11%

56%51%

51%46%

10% 7% 10% 8%

Elementary occupationsSkilled manual occupationsSkilled non-manual occupationsHigh skilled occupations

Changes in working-age population and labour force by age, 2013-25 EU (%)

Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

Total job opportunities 2015-25, EU (thousands)

Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

All qualifications

Low qualification

Medium qualification

High qualification

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Total Requirement Replacement Demand Net Change

Wood, paper, print, publish-ing

All qualifications

Low qualification

Medium qualification

High qualification

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Total Requirement Replacement Demand Net Change

All manufacturing

Labour force trends by qualifications 2005-25, EU (%)

Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

Skill mismatch – what is it?

OverqualificationLacking the right skills

Skill mismatch

Employers unable to find the right talent, despite offering competitive wages, face skill shortages. Skill gaps arise where the skills required are unavailable in the workforce, for example, due to technological advance. Over or underqualification is where individuals take jobs that do not match their qualifications. People are over or underskilled where, whatever their qualification level, their skills do not match their job

Share of adult workers with skill deficits, EU (%)

Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)

MT EE RO CZ BG LV SK LT SI IE ES HR HU PL DK AT EU28 UK SE PT FR EL BE DE CY IT FI NL LU0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Changing job tasks and skill development (EU)

Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)

53%Adult employees whose tasks have

become significantly more varied since they started their job

22%Adult employees

whose skills have not developed since they

started their job

Many jobs still have low skill needs (EU)

Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)

40%Adult employees

needing only basic literacy to do their

job

33%Adult employees

needing only basic or no ICT skills to do

their job

Adult employees whose education or training involves some work-based learning (EU)

Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)

40% Adult employees

completing education and

training involving some work-based

learning

62%Adult employees in

professional, scientific or technical services completed

studies with no work-based learning

Principles for skill anticipation systems • High quality complementary data on different labour

market developments;• Capacity to analyse data to interpret developments

and their implications;• Organisations or committees to structure

cooperation between interested parties;• Mechanisms to transfer agreed findings concerning

future skill needs into VET curricular.

New data and results ONLINE Look for

at cedefop.europa.eu

Six key points • Technology good at routine; but people make businesses competitive.• Skills in demand will be behavioural skills to deal with non-routine

tasks. • Demand for high-skills, but also medium-level skills to replace people

leaving the labour market. • Skill mismatch affects employees not just unemployed people. • To reduce skill mismatch raising qualification levels is not enough.

Skills must also be used and developed through work-based learning, continuing training and good jobs.

• Skill anticipation systems (Why, how much, which methods, for whom?)

And last but not least…

None of this can happen without the social partners

Thank you for your attention

More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu

orskills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu

Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!