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Global Yield
Assessment
Description
and data
requirements
of the
global dynamic
vegetation
model
LPJmL
Katharina Waha
Workshop Beyond Diagnostics: Insights and Recommendations for
Remote Sensing, 14./15. December
2013
1 – LPJmL in ShortLPJmL
•
process‐based
dynamic
vegetation
model, originates
from
EPIC and BIOME
models
•
simulates
plant responses
to climate
and
climate
change
in natural
and agriculture
ecosystems
• high spatial
and temporal resolution
Soil water
Photosynthesis
Climate
Respiration
AllocationNPP
Processes
2 – Main features
/ modules
• Regular
grid
(67.420 grid
cells
0.5°x 0.5°)
•
13 crops
+ managed
grassland
+ bioenergy
plants: ‐
wheat, rice, maize, millet, pulses,
sugarbeet, cassava, sunflower, groundnuts,
soybean, rapeseed, sugar cane, other crops
Climate, Soil, Land Use
Crop
Biomass, Harvest, Water Use
Land use
change
2 – Main features
/ modules
(cont.)
Water balance
Carbon
pools
and fluxes
biochemical
leaf
photosynthesis
model
(Farquhar
et al. 1980
/Haxeltine
& Prentice
1996)
Daily allocation
driven
by
phenology,
stress and production
• Regular
grid
(67.420 grid
cells
0.5°x 0.5°)
‐
Farquhar, G.D. et al. 1980. A Biochemical
Model of Photosynthetic CO2 Assimilation
in Leaves of C3 Species. Planta. 149, 78‐90.‐
Haxeltine, A.,Prentice, I.C., 1996. BIOME3:
An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model
based on ecophysiological
constraints,
resource availability, and competition
among plant functional types. Global
Biogeochemical Cycles. 10, 693‐709.
3 –
Crop
management•
Management modules
(climate‐driven, input‐driven)
+ often
more
important
than
climate
and soils
‐> Computed internally
+ Planting dates (Waha et al. 2012)
+ Available irrigation water (Biemans
et al. 2011)
+ Variety characteristics (Bondeau et al. 2008, van Bussel 2011)
‐> Prescribed
+ Annual land‐use patterns (Fader et al. 2010)
+ Irrigation (yes/no)
+ Intercrops
+ Residue management
+ Management
Intensity (Fader et al. 2010)
Simulated
sowing
date for
maize
in 2000 (Waha et al. 2012)
4 – Model Input•
Soils
+ FAO Harmonized
Soil
Database (13 soil
texture
classes
‐> water
holding
capacity)
•
Climate
+ current
and past
climate:
monthly: CRU TS 3.21 (1901‐2012)
daily: GPCC (1901‐2007), WATCH (1901‐2001)
+ future
climate: climate
projections
from
GCMs via CMIP5 project
•
Landuse
+ generated
from
3 land use
data
sets
+ rainfed and irrigated
cropland
in
1700 –
2005 for
13 crops
Compilation procedure of the land‐use dataset for LPJmL
(Fader et al. 2010)
CRU ‐
Climate
Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
GPCC ‐
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre
WATCH ‐
WATCH Forcing Data 20th Century
GCM ‐
General Circulation Model
CMIP5 ‐
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
5 – Model Output: Crop
Yields
Simulated mean area‐weighted national wheat yield (t/ha) in 2000
Simulated grid‐cell wheat yields (t/ha) in 2000
National and grid‐cell
yields
Interannual
variability
Yield
Rainfall
Simulated mean area‐
weighted
national
maize
yield
1961‐2000
(t/ha) in Burkina Faso
5 – Model Output: Crop
yields
under
climate
change
Mean climate change impact (%) on (sub‐) national crop yields in 2050 relative to 2000. Climate change impacts are
shown as simulated with LPJmL with climate projections from 5 general circulation models and 3 emission scenarios
(Müller et al. 2009).
With
CO2 fertilization Without
CO2 fertilization
Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Popp, A., Waha, K.,Fader, M., 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Yields.
Background note to the World Development Report 2010. World Bank, Washington D.C.
6 –
Under
development
and future
plans
(examples)
•
Refine
management
modules
(irrigation, rainwater
harvesting
and vapor
shift
techniques, multiple cropping)
•
Add
more
crops
(potato, cotton, date palm, citrus, …)
•
Continue
development
of bioenergy
plants
•
Add nitrogen cycle
•
Understand
uncertainty
in CO2
fertilization
effect
(coupled
effects
from
increased
temperatures
and CO2
)
•
Improve
grassland
management
and representation
of livestock
•
Revise
simulated
impacts
of extreme
temperature
and precipitation
Thank
you
http://www.pik‐potsdam.de/research/projects/lpjweb
Dr Katharina Waha Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities tel: +49 331 288 26 27 e‐mail: katharina.waha@pik‐potsdam.de
Literaturekey
model
components, LPJmL as LPJ‐DGVM:•
Collatz, G.J., Ribas‐Carbo, M.,Berry, J.A. 1992. Coupled
Photosynthesis‐Stomatal
Conductance
Model for
Leaves
of C4 Plants,
pp. 519‐538, Vol. 19.•
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I.C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J.O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke,
K.,Venevsky, S., 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography
and terrestrial
carbon
cycling
in the
LPJ dynamic
global vegetation
model. Global Change Biology. 9, 161‐185.agricultural
vegetation:•
Bondeau, A., Smith, P.C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze‐Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein,
M.,Smith, B., 2007. Modelling the
role
of agriculture for the 20th century
global terrestrial
carbon
balance. Global Change
Biology. 13, 679‐706.hydrology, river
routing:•
Biemans, H., Haddeland, I., Kabat, P., Ludwig, F.,Hutjes, R.W.A., 2011. Impact of reservoirs
on river
discharge
and irrigation
water
supply
during
the
20th century. Water Resources Research. 47, W03509.•
Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W.,Sitch, S., 2004. Terrestrial
vegetation
and water
balance
‐
hydrological
evaluation
of a dynamic
global vegetation
model. Journal of Hydrology. 286, 249‐270.water
management
in agricultural, virtual
water, land‐use
data
set
and management
intensity:•
Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A.,Gerten, D., 2010. Virtual
water
content
of temperate
cereals
and maize: Present
and
potential future
patterns. Journal of Hydrology. 384, 218‐231.•
Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J.,Schaphoff, S., 2008. Agricultural green
and blue
water
consumption
and
its
influence
on the
global water
system. Water Resources Research. 44, W09405 (17pp).permafrost, soil
hydrology
update:•
Schaphoff, S., Heyder, U., Ostberg, S., Gerten, D., Heinke, J.,Lucht, W., 2013. Contribution
of permafrost
soils
to the
global
carbon
budget. Environmental
Research Letters. 8, 014026.crop
phenology, sowing
and harvest
dates•
Van Bussel, L.G.J., 2011. From
field
to globe: upscaling
of crop
growth modelling., Dissertation, Wageningen University,
Wageningen.•
Waha, K., van Bussel, L.G.J., Müller, C.,Bondeau, A., 2012. Climate‐driven
simulation
of global crop
sowing
dates. Global
Ecology
and Biogeography. 21, 247–259.bioenergy:•
Beringer, T.I.M., Lucht, W.,Schaphoff, S., 2011. Bioenergy production
potential of global biomass
plantations
under
environmental
and agricultural
constraints. GCB Bioenergy.