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The Next Wave of U.S. Solar!!!!
Shayle Kann!Senior Vice President, Research!
Greentech Media!!!
U.S. Solar Market Insight 2014!San Diego, California!
Fifteen Years of Growth…
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 4
4 11 23 45 58 79 105 160 298 382 852
1,919
3,369
4,776
6,476
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Ann
ual P
V In
stal
latio
ns (M
W)
Residential Non-Residential Utility
Pre-ITC 1%
30% ITC-Driven 99%
No State Incentive
8%
State Incentive
92%
…Driven by One Paradigm
Source: GTM Research
State Incentive Federal Incentive
+
Fortunately, Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
$3.60
$2.27
$1.68
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Residential Commercial Utility
Q3
2014
Bot
tom
-Up
Aver
age
Sys
tem
Pric
e ($
/W)
Modules Inverters and AC Subsystem DC Electrical BOS Structural BOS Direct Labor Engineering and PII
Best-in-Class
Traditional Grid Parity Analysis Ignores Rate Structures Connecticut Proves Why That Matters
Source: GTM Research
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Con
nect
icut
Res
iden
tial -
Yea
r One
Bill
Im
pact
from
PV
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - Full Retail Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - Actual Rate
False Parity
Grid Parity
Here’s How We Calculate Grid Parity
Source: GTM Research
1. Solar Cost! 2. Electricity Bill Impact! 3. Forecasting!
Solar Cost (LCOE) Modeling
Irradiation Levels
Hourly Customer Load Profile
Hourly PV Production Profile
Solar Avoided Cost Modeling
Solar Input Forecasts
Electricity Price Forecasts
2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
Source: GTM Research 2014 regional system price inputs range from $3.28/W-$3.72/W; WACC 9.6%
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NM SC
2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
Source: GTM ResearchAZ and CA Data Reflect Year-to-Date Residential Installations (Q1-Q3)
FL AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NM SC
CSI Funded
27% Non-CSI
Funded 73%
State Incentive
44% No State Incentive
56%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 2010
Q4 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2012
Q1 2013
Q4 2013
Q3 2014
(MW
dc)
Residential Commercial
2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NM SC
Source: GTM Research 2014 regional system price inputs range from $3.28/W-$3.72/W; WACC 9.6%
2016: The Market Begins to Blossom
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
CO
CT
GA
ME
MD
MA MI
RI
TX
UT
WY WI
Source: GTM Research 2016 regional system price inputs range from $2.80/W-$3.17/W; WACC 9.6%
2017: ITC Reduction Kills Marginal Markets
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
Source: GTM Research 2017 regional system price inputs range from $2.59/W-$2.87/W; WACC 8.2%
ITC Expiration: The Utility Market Feels the Most Pain
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
5,267
7,236
791
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2015 2016 2017
MW
dc
Contracted Utility PV Pipeline by Planned Operation Date
1.3 GW with a Post-2016 PPA
Despite PPA Prices (With the ITC) Consistently Around $50/MWh-$70/MWh
Source: GTM Research U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Util
ity P
V P
PA P
rice
($/M
Wh)
Contract Execution Date
2017: Retreat to the Southwest!
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
Source: GTM Research 2017 regional system price inputs range from $2.59/W-$2.87/W; WACC 8.2%
2020: The Real Fun Begins
FL
0%-10% Savings 0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
>5% Loss
AZ
CA
HI
NV
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
CO
CT
GA
ME
MD
MA MI
RI
TX
UT
WY
AL AR
DE
FL
LA
MN
MS
MO
NE
NY
NC
OH
SD
VA
WI
Source: GTM Research 2020 regional system price inputs range from $2.09/W-$2.35/W; WACC 8.2%
Rate Structures Pose the Biggest Risk to Solar CompetitivenessExample: Just-Approved Fixed Charge Increases in Wisconsin
Source: GTM Research
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wis
cons
in R
esid
entia
l - Y
ear O
ne B
ill Im
pact
from
PV
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - $9 fixed charge Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - $16 fixed charge
New Rate Structures Put Wisconsin Solar Market Back
Five Years!
Grid Parity
28 States “In the Money” by 2020, and 14 at the Tipping Point
Source: GTM Research
1 3 4
8 4
7
14 14
2
3 4
6
4
6
8
14
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
# of
Sta
tes
At o
r Bel
ow P
arity
- R
esid
entia
l
0%-10% Savings >10% Savings
Thank You!!!
Shayle Kann!Senior Vice President, Research!
Greentech Media!!
Questions? Visit www.gtmresearch.com!Or contact [email protected]!