Upload
steve-blank
View
744
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
GUTWISERAPRIL 3, 2013
PERSONALIZED NUTRITION
EMPOWERING INDIVIDUALS
TO RESHAPE THEIR BODIES
WITH SCIENCE
ADRIEN BURCH
BUBBA BROOKS
CHRISTINA CHANG
TATIANA ECOIFFIER
ANNA MAYBANK
LORIS DZAGOYAN
INTERVIEWS: 102
GUTWISER TEAM
Tatiana Ecoiffier
Ph.D
Brandon Brooks
Ph.D
Loris Dzagoyan
M.Eng
Anna Maybank
MBA
Christina Chang
MBA
Adrien Burch
Ph.D
VISION 1.0
CROWDSOURCING HEALTH
Crowd sourced clinical trials
179K patients, 1K+ conditions
Map the human
microbiome with
citizen science
Connect to people with
Crohns around you
Research: Patient communities:
General population People with serious diseases
Gut Wiser
• Maintaining
personal health
through
scientifically-based
self-knowledge
• Do-It-Yourself non-
clinical diagnosis
(digestive issues,
mood disorders,
obesity, etc…)
• Prevention and/or
monitoring existing
conditions (crohn’s
disease, colitis,
IBD)
• Tool to perform
discovery-based
science
• Health conscious
individual customers
with disposable income
• Symptomatic
(undiagnosed illness)
individual customers
• Vulnerable/dependent
individual customers
• Chronic-disease
patients
• Health practitioners
(traditional and
alternative doctors)
• Researchers:
government
institutions/private
sector/nutritional health
supplement companies
1) For testing service
• Membership
• Retail partner/outlet
• Pay-as-you-go
• Referral
2) For data service
• Subscribers
• Pay-as-you-go
• Consumer facing-
advertising
• Food supplier/health
stores
• Peer
recommendation
• Health practitioner
referral
• Scientific publication
• Stool sample collection
• Analysis of the sample;
sequencing of the 16s rDNA
gut bacteria; creating a
complete profile of the
customer gut microflora
• Providing customers with a
comparison of their microflora
profile with up-to-date peer-
reviewed scientific literature
• Creating a database
aggregating customer results
for research purposes
• Easy-to-use testing kit
• Operational lab
facility
• Database of
translated gut
microbiology literature
into plain English
• Web platform for
consumer access
• Data access for
scientists
1) Partners
• Partnership with
scientific literature
community through:
a. Research engines
(Google Scholar,
Pubmed) b. Journals
(Science, Nature,
Journal of Intestinal
Microbiology)
• Food product
manufacturers
• Quantified self
groups
• Patient groups
• Health providers
• Research grant-
making agencies
2) Suppliers
• Sampling devices
• Shipping service
• Lab sequencing
facilities
• Collection kit
• Sample handling
• Sequencing cost ($20/customer)
• Technical worker (lab, bioinformatics, statistic)
• Web development management
• Marketing
• Customer service
• Product placement sales (i.e. probiotic drinks)
• Subscription model (sell testing kits + results)
• Free kits, pay for results
• Health providers pay
• Researchers pay for data
• Red = self-referring, “asymptomatic” individual customers seeking personal analysis
• Green = self-referring, “symptomatic” individual customers
• Blue = peer or heath practitioner referred, “symptomatic” customers
• Purple = organization customers seeking aggregated individual customer data
• Black = relevant to all customer segments
Using cutting-edge sequencing technology, Gut Wiser is a consumer-facing
service to analyze bacterial community in the digestive system and provide a
web-based platform where individuals can easily interpret and find relevant
information about their results based on published scientific data.
• Who is our target customer?
• Quantified self?
• People with digestive issues?
• Doctors?
• Research institutions that
want data?
WE STARTED WITH SCIENCE AND
INFORMATION…
1
3
4
Symptomatic /
proactive individuals2
“Here’s a snapshot of your gut flora”
“High diversity is correlated with lean
people”
• Traditional MDs:
“the science isn’t there”
• Healthy don‟t care about data/
awareness: “but if you can tell me what
diets actually work / how to lose weight”
• Symptomatic individuals want
solutions: “if you could tell me how to
build up my tolerance to spicy foods”
PIVOT TO : A COMMUNITY PLATFORM
Paleo
Juice cleanse
Atkins
Gluten-free
Raw food
Probiotic supplements
Which diets worked for
others?
MVP1) TEST: Gut bacteria analysis
2) TRACK: Online results
3) SHARE:Community platform
Pain
•Can‟t lose weight or successfully keep it off
•Too many unfounded diet fads
Gain
•A more scientific approach to dieting
A lean person
An obese person
YOU at week 8
Your Bacterial Diversity Results
DOES THE SCIENCE MATCH THE
CUSTOMER‟S WANTS?
Hypothesis Results
Symptomatic individuals
want info to better
manage their conditions
✗ Want interventions
that the science can’t
(yet) offer
Weight-loss seekers want
info on how to maintain /
lose weight
Want specific direction
+ proof (sustainable
results, not fads)
HOW DO WE REACH WEIGHT LOSS SEEKERS?
What about people not in a
program… who are health seekers?
CUSTOMER ARCHETYPE:
THE FEEL-BETTER
Female, 30
years +, high
disposable
income
Already healthy:
But wants to be
100%
Not just fitness:
Interested in
wellbeing
Highly educated
about health
Comfortable
talking about
poop!
Comfortable
with new
technology
WHAT DO “FEEL BETTERS” WANT?
• Tracking / shared experience
• DIY✗
• Personalized product recs
• Handholding (~$100 OOP
/nutritionist visit)✓
PIVOT TO: SPECIFIC PRODUCT
RECOMMENDATIONS
1.) ANALYSE
2.) COMPARE
3.) SUGGEST
HOW DO WE REACH FEEL BETTERS?
“Feel better”
NUTRITIONIST
• Holistic
practitioner
• Unlicensed
Diet
diagnosis
Behavior
change
No MD approval
Product suggestions
Less expensive for client
✔
✖$80$100
COMPETITIVE SPECTRUM:
SCIENCE VS. MARKETING?
Provide Data
Metametrix
Cust. Prob.
FitKit
Renew LifeCustomVite
Vitaganic
GeneMe
Sell Products
Gut Wiser
TWO REVENUE STREAMS:
KIT SALES + PRODUCT SALES
Net Revenue from Kits
Price per kit $80
- Gutwiser cost per kit $60
= Profit /Kit $20
Amazon platform
Probiotics sales / customer/mo. $30
x # mos./yr 12
= Annual sales /customer $360
x Gutwiser cut 15%
= Profit /customer /year $54
Fully Personalized
Probiotics sales per customer/mo. $60
X # mos./yr 12
= Annual sales per customer $720
x Gutwiser cut 40%
= Profit /customer /year $288
Consumer
Analysis
Nutritionist
WebSiteKits
Nutritional
product vendors
HOW IT WORKS
Kit
$$ spent
$$ received
Consumer‟s
$$ spent
Prob Kit
$80 wholesale
15%
YES!WILL WE KEEP DOING THIS?
Phase 1
Continue Customer Discovery
Phase 2
Provide probiotic to customers and assess their effect
Phase 3
Create the database
Begin to teach in nutritionist schools
Phase 4
Test our platform with nutritionists and their customers
Phase 5
Reach out to a larger market
APPENDIX
$49
Symptomatic /
proactive individuals
1
3
4
2
CANVAS WEEK 2
LaunchPadCent ral
Lic ensedfrom businessm ode lgenerat ion .c om underaCrea t iveCom m onsAt t r ibut ion-ShareAl ike3.0Unpor t edLic ense
KEYPARTNERS
GETcustomer:healt h
t rackingapp»
Nut rit ionand
probiot icsupplement
vendors»
Labsequencing
facilit ies(outsourcing)
»
Samplingdevices»
Shippingservice»
Gyms»
WeightWatchers»
KEYACTI VI TI ES
Managingsample
collect ionand
analysisprocesswit h
labsupplier»
Sequencing/analysis
of16srDNAgut
bacteria»
VALUEPROPOSI TI ONS
Toolt operform
discovery-based
science»
DIYnon-clin ica l
snapshot ofyourgut
bacteriatocompare
tothat ofleanpeople
»
Ge t
re co mme nd a t io ns
forot he r
supp le me n t s/d ie t s
t o t ryba se don
yourprofile »
CUSTOMERRELATI ONSHI PS
GETcust :pe e r
re comme nda t ion »
GETcust :
p romost o h igh -e nd
n ut r it ion ist s»
KEEPcust :
Discounted,
CUSTOMERSEGMENTS
Wealth ierwomen,
st rugglingwithweight
loss(DIY),25+ »
Pharma»
Probiot ics
manufacturers»
Foodmanufacturers
purchasingads»
1. )Pro a ct ive life
improve rs2. )
Pa ssive nut rit ion ist
clie n t s»
KEYRESOURCES
Webplat formfor
consumeraccess»
Operat ionallabfacilit y
»
CHANNELS
Foodsupplier/hea lt h
stores»
Consumer-facingads
»
Peerrecommendat ion
»
COSTSTRUCTURE
Sequencingandanalysiscost($60/kitformater ia ls/labor)»
Overhead(webdev,cust omerservice,market ingetc)»
REVENUESTREAMS
Productplacementsales(i.e .probiot icdrinks)»
Payperpackage(3kit s+ individualresult s)»
CANVAS WEEK 4
CANVAS WEEK 5
LaunchPadCent ral
Lic ensedfrom businessm ode lgenerat ion .c om underaCrea t iveCom m onsAt t r ibut ion-ShareAl ike3.0Unpor t edLic ense
KEYPARTNERS
Probiot ic/supplement
manufacturers»
Labsequencing
facilit ies(outsourcing)
»
Nut rit ion ist s(product
referra l)»
KEYACTI VI TI ES
Stoolsample
collect ion»
FDA510Kapproval»
Creat ecompletegut
microfloraprofilefor
customer»
VALUEPROPOSI TI ONS
Getrecommendat ions
forother
supplements/d iet sto
t rybasedonyour
profile»
Usescience,not
t ria l/e rror,tobet t er
understandimpactof
d ie tmodificat ionsor
abnormalit ies»
Toolst o
nut rit ion ist t o
ma ke scie n t if ica lly
ba se dprob io t ic
re co mme nd a t io n»
CUSTOMERRELATI ONSHI PS
GETcust :peer
recommendat ion»
GETcust :high-end
nut rit ion ist /health
consult ant»
KEEPcust :
Membership,
CUSTOMERSEGMENTS
Foodmanufacturers
purchasingads»
1.)Proact ivelife
improvers2.)Passive
nut r it ion istclient s»
Nut rit ion ist s»
KEYRESOURCES
Test ingkit »
Webplat formfor
consumeraccess»
CHANNELS
Foodsupplier/hea lt h
stores»
Consumer-facingads
»
Peerrecommendat ion
»
COSTSTRUCTURE
Overhead(webdev,cust omerservice,market ingetc)»
Sequencingandanalysiscost($60/kitformater ia ls/labor)»
REVENUESTREAMS
Productplacementsales(i.e .probiot icdrinks)»
Payperpackage(3kit s+ individualresult s)»
Subscrip t ionforpersonalizedproduct recsanddiscounts»
Freeaccesst ocommunit yplat form»
prob io t icsa le s»
CANVAS WEEK 7
CANVAS WEEK 8
MOCK-UP OF IDEA #1
1 2
3 4
MOCK UP OF IDEA #2
Analysis
Nutritionist Nutri. Page
Kits DataBase
Prebiotics
Probiotics
Patient Page
MOCK UP OF IDEA #3
HOW CAN WE MAKE
RECOMMENDATIONS?
3.) Matching:
We look for a user that
looks similar to you and
who has rated a probiotic
1.) Profiling:
We analyze your sample
and can see who else has
a similar profile to you
2.) Community rating:
Other Gutwiser users have
rated probiotics based on
their personal experiences
CHANNEL ARCHETYPE
Nutritionist / Health CoachRegistered Dietitian (R.D)Naturopathic doctor
Are licensed
Can work in hospital
must meet the continuing
professional education
requirements of ADA
Not credited, Unregulated
Can be certified from certain school
“personalized” approach
Licensed physician
Holistic method
Practitioners would:
1/ recommend our service free of charge
2/ be motivated by coupons for discounted
or free product
3/ ask for monetary compensation for
endorsing service
NUTRITIONIST AS CHANNEL
Nutritionists• Can‟t order labs without MD
• Want to attract more clients
“Feel betters”
Wk 0 Wk 4 Wk 8 Wk 12
Baseline:
Test 1
GET:
Product
referral
KEEP:
• Community
results
GROW:
• Customer
referrals
Results 1:
Test 2
Results 2:
Test 3
Results 3
WHAT DO NUTRITIONISTS WANT?
“Trial and error” Metametrix Gutwiser
Technology Intuition PCR , traditional Sanger
sequencing
Ultra high-throughput
Illumina-tag sequencing
Process See what happens MD approval required to
order test
No MD approval
Output Client perception only • Select bacteria
snapshot
• Yeast and fungus
• Drug resistance
• Parasites
• Short chain fatty
acids
• Inflammation
• Complete bacteria
profile
• Personalized diet,
supplement, and
probiotic
recommendations
Cost to user Free $400 for one kit $400(?) for 3 kits
Value Limited, static bacterial
profile
Robust, dynamic
bacterial profile
SELLING THROUGH NUTRITIONISTS
Hypothesis Experiment Outcome
Sell through
nutritionists:
1.) Trade shows
2.) Schools
Nutritionists:
$1000/booth, 400
attendees
Too expensive to build
direct sales
Holistic nutritionist schools:
~ 13 schools x 150 grads/year
= 1,950 grads/year
Supplement retailers
$5250/booth, 63000
attendees
1. Trade shows are
useful for reaching
supplement retailers as
partners
2. Use nutritionists as
only initial channel:
reach them through
schools. Break even
and reach 1,950
grads/year
3. Next steps:
RETHINK OUR
CHANNELS AT SCALE!
SCIENCE
Revenue model 1: Manufacturing and selling our own probiotics
Revenue model 2: Selling data to probiotics manufacturers
Key questions:
Do people care enough about the science? No!
Do probiotics companies care about the science? No!
Nutritionists care about science and people care about what nutritionists think
MARKETING
Revenue model: Diets and probiotics sales
Channel: Nutritionists (Avon model) vs direct to consumer via infomercials
Science is just one part of our story
SCIENCE VS MARKETING
TWO REVENUE STREAMS:
KIT SALES + PRODUCT SALES
Net Revenue from Kits
(per customer)
Price per kit $80
- Gutwiser cost per kit $60
= Profit per kit $20
x # of kits/yr 3
= Kit profit per customer per year $60
Net Revenue from "Amazon platform”
Probiotics sales per customer/mo. $30
x # mos./yr 12
= Annual sales per customer $360
x Gutwiser cut 15%
= Gutwiser product profit per
customer per year $54
Overhead Expenses
# Sales employees 2
+ # of Technicians 1
+ # of Web dev employees 1
+ # of Science Experts 1
= # of Employees 5
x Avg salary $50,000
= Salary expense $250,000
Travel and
conference/expo expenses $3,000
x # of conferences per
year 6
= Travel/conference
expenses $18,000
Other overhead $3,000
x # of mos. 12
= Other expenses $36,000
Total SG&A Expenses $304,000
2,667
Fully Personalized Probiotics
Probiotics sales per customer/mo. $60
X # mos./yr 12
= Annual sales per customer $720
x Gutwiser cut 40%
= Gutwiser product
revenue/customer $288 874
Breakeven # of
customers:
A
B
$114
$348
Profit per
customer
CAN WE MAKE TRULY CUSTOMIZED
PROBIOTICS?
Option A:
Kit + Amazon
marketplace/platform
of product reccs
Option B:
Kit + Fully
personalized, custom
probiotics
Volume constraints
• None
• “150K tablets”
minimum order,
15k piggybacking
off existing orders
Time to customer
• 2-4 wks for analysis
• Readily available
probiotics
• 2-4 wks for analysis
• +4-12 wks to
develop customized
probiotics
Revenue Model
• Product price: ~
$30/mo.
• GW profit: 10-
25% cut of sales
• Product price:
~$60/mo.
• GW profit: 150-
900% markup
possible
Source: Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics
Where is our value
Database
Supplement recommendation algorithm
Patentable insights on the gut microbiome
How de we want to protect it
Database: consent form the participant may be required
Algorithm: Patent vs. Trade secret?
The university in this process?
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTIES
•“As soon as you say 'test kit' it is going to be a med device"
•“It would be the manufacturer‟s responsibility to get FDA approval, but your company could get in some trouble if using an unapproved FDA test kit.”
FDA Class I Medical Device status
•”If the consumer reads the results – fine to give consumer some guidance on nutrition supplements they should be taking… but not for any disease treatment or abnormal condition.. You can probably say you may have symptoms of IBS but need to go to an internal medicine MD to find out.”
Who interprets the results? What claims can be made?
•“Giving nutritionists a kickback would probably be okay but might need a disclosure – e.g., „I understand that this practice owns the MRI ctr‟”
•“You might need to disclose on the website that all of the products offered / recommended here have a relationship with the company.”
Financial incentives with partners must be disclosed
REGULATORY INSIGHTS FROM AN FDA
LAWYER
• Find a FDA-cleared,
marketed device to
qualify for Class I
exemption
• Cannot make
claims/reccs beyond
what a non-licensed
practitioner can do,
(i.e., stay away from
claims on disease
treatment/diagnosis)
• Be transparent that
we/nutritionists are
recommending
products that
we/nutritionists reap
financial benefit from
TAM: Digestive diseases, 60 M adults 1
SAM: IBS sufferers: 15.3M adults
% that take supplements: 50%2
x approx monthly spend on supplements: $203
Target = $1.84 BN
TAM: Dieters, 188 M adults4
SAM: Women dieters: 104M5
“Wealthy dieters” comprise only 20% 6
x approx monthly spend on supplements: $207
Target = $4.98 BN
SYMPTOMATIC/PROACTIVE INDIVIDUALS -
HOW BIG IS THE MARKET?
Digestive
disease
60 M adults
IBS
15 M
Dieters
188 M adults
Wealthy
women
dieters
20.8M
1 N I H ( N I D D K ) , i n c l . C r o h n s , I B S , U C
2 C e n t e r f o r D i s e a s e C o n t r o l a n d
P r e v e n t i o n
3 , 7 C u s t o m e r i n t e r v i e w
4 , 5 G a l l u p
6 M a r k e t d a t a E n t e r p r i s e s
NUTRITIONIST MARKET SIZE
Estimated number of women aged 35-64 who get information about nutrition from a nutritionist
35-44 45-54 55-64 Total
%age of total US pop who get info from nutritionists 2% 3% 3%
%age of women who get info from nutritionists 1% 2% 2%
x Number of women in US pop 20,128,000 22,459,000 19,038,000
= Est. no. of women who get info from nutritionist 201,280 336,885 285,570 823,735
Source: Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics
Gutwiser sells to 5% of market at $114 profit/sale = $4.7M
Cover our costs from teaching at nutrition schools
Make a small profit from future referrals of our students
SELLING THROUGH NUTRITIONIST
SCHOOLS
Income from providing testing and teaching in nutritionist schools Income from referrals by nutritionists
Revenue Costs Total number of students 1950
%age of students who go on to practice 50%
Wholesale price per kit 80 Curriculum development (hours) 35 = Practicing nutritionists reached 975
x Number of students 1950 x Salary per hour 50 x %age of nutritionists who refer clients to Gutwiser 50%
= Total revenue 156000 = Curriculum development cost 1750 = Number of nutritionists referring clients 488
x Clients per nutritionist 10
Salary per hour 50 = Clients using Gutwiser 4875
x Teaching hours per course 15 x Profit per client to Gutwiser 174
= Cost per course per school 750 = Profit from referrals by nutritionists via school channel 848,250
x Number of schools 13
= Cost to teach at every school 9750
Cost per kit 60
x Number of students 1950
= Cost to provide kits for students 117,000
Total revenue from teaching 156,000
- Total cost to reach 1,950 students 128,500
= Revenue from nutritionists schools 27,500
PROBIOTICS MARKET SIZE
• Probiotic supplements annual
North American revenue
~ $750M in 2011
• Growing 35% in 5 years
~ $1bn in 2016
• 5% of US market ~ $50M
Functional food, functional beverages and dietary supplements:
2011 US market for nutraceuticals = $56.4bn
2011 Global market = $142.1Bn
2017 Global market = $204.8Bn
NUTRACEUTICALS MARKET