Economic implications

of changing food consumption patterns

Franco Sassi

OECD – Health Division

PREPARATORY TECHNICAL MEETING

FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy

13-15 November 2013

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

OF CHANGING FOOD

CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

Franco Sassi PhD

OECD – Health Division

Rome, 14th November 2013

UN High-level Meeting on NCDs

Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004

Source: WHO, 2009

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2004 2015 2030

High income Higer-middle income

Lower-middle income Low income

Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group

Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008

Obesity: a Global Epidemic

India

China

Russia

OECD

Brazil

S Africa

UK

Mexico

% of adult population

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

• In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas

• Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US

• Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China

The OECD/WHO CDP Model

Physical activityadequate physical act

insuff .physical act

Body mass

indexnormal weight

pre-obesity

obesity

Blood pressurenormal

hypertension

Cholesterol

normal

hypercholesterolemia

Glycaemianormal

diabetes

Cancers

Stroke

Ischemic heart

disease

Fatlow fat intake

medium fat intake

high fat intake

Fibreadequate fibre intake

low fibre intake

Socio-economic statusupper

lower

A Comprehensive & Affordable

Prevention Package

OECD Countries Emerging Economies

Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns

Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling

Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children

Government regulation of food advertising to children

Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures

School-based interventions

Canada Europe Brazil China

24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap

What Can Prevention Achieve?

Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Mil

lio

n l

ife

yea

rs

Time (years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Mil

lio

n l

ife

yea

rs

Time (years)

Europe China Brazil Canada

Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases

An Affordable Prevention Package

0

1

2

3

4

5

India China Brazil South Africa RussianFederation

Mexico

US

$ p

er

he

ad

High blood pressure & cholesterol Unhealthy diet and physical inactivity

Alcohol use Tobacco use

4.5

1.2

0.4

Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

00 10 20 30 40 50

$ /

ca

pit

a

Time (years)

Europe

Canada

Brazil

China

% Decrease Required in Fat Consumption

COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021)

Argentina -0.9

Australia -1.4

Brazil -0.9

Canada -1.2

Chile -0.9

China -0.8

European Union -1.1

India -0.7

Japan -0.8

Korea -0.8

Mexico -1.4

New Zealand -1.4

Russian Federation -0.8

United States -1.4

Scenario 1 Results

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

12012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Atlantic beef world price %

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Cheese world price% difference

-3

-2

-1

0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Vegetable oil world price% difference

-3

-2

-1

0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Coarse grains world price% difference

SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed

to meet WHO guidelines

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN

Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake

Scenario2 Results

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %

Consumption Production

Bovine consumption and production (kt)

USA

BRA

E27

CHN

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)

baseline

scenario

Scenario2 Results

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Vegetable oil world price

baseline

scenario

Scenario2 Results

Key Policy Implications

• Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues

• Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy

• Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains

• Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term