Identifying the Potential Adopters of an Agricultural Innovation

Geoff KaineDepartment of Primary Industries, Victoria

Dr V Wright and Prof R CookseyUniversity of New England, Armidale, NSW

Presentation to National Symposium on Understanding Practice Change by Farmers Melbourne, Victoria, 2008

Key Messages

1. The adoption of many agricultural innovations has not met expectations.

2. We have developed a method for identifying the potential adopters of agricultural innovations.

3. The method has shown that the number of potential adopters is often much smaller than we think. This means extension has often been more successful than we thought.

4. The method can be used to help set priorities for research, extension and policy.

Outline

1. Why is it important to identify the number of potential adopters of agricultural innovations.

2. Summarise the theory.

3. Describe a method for identifying the number of potential adopters of agricultural innovations.

4. Present an example.

5. Discuss some implications for policy, research and extension.

Why it is Important

Research

Knowing how many producers might adopt helps in allocating funds to research projects.

Extension

Knowing how many have adopted, and how many may adopt, helps in planning extension programs.

Policy

Knowing how many producers might adopt, and why, helps in setting policies.

Potential Adopters

• Those producers for whom the innovation a potentially offers a net benefit.

• Those producers for whom the innovation will create a

net benefit by assisting them to better meet their utilitarian, social and hedonic goals as managers of agricultural enterprises given sufficient knowledge of the consequences of adopting the innovation.

• The number of potential adopters is the market for an innovation.

The Theory - Involvement

• Involvement is a measure of motivation to invest time and energy.

• Sources are utilitarian, social and hedonic.

• Involvement is intensified when there is uncertainty about the consequences for achieving goals.

Involvement

Involvement and Farming

• The adoption of an innovation is a highly involving decision for producers.

• Producers devote time and effort to reasoning about the consequences of adopting.

• This requires they identify the elements in their farm system that interact with the innovation to influence the benefits and costs of adoption.

The Theory – Farm Context

• The elements in a farm system that interact with an innovation to influence the benefits and costs of adoption is the farm context for that innovation.

• The farm context can include physical, technological and lifestyle characteristics, and perceptions of risks.

• The number of potential adopters is the set of producers with farm contexts that suit an innovation.

• Differences in farm context equate with different benefit segments.

The Method

1. Face-to-face interviewing to identify farm context.

2. Large scale survey to statistically validate interview results and to quantify population and benefit segments.

3. Face-to-face interviews to validate membership of benefit segments and implications.

Example

Micro-irrigation in Fruit Growing

• Promoted to increase efficiency of water use.

• Apparently limited adoption.

• Surprisingly few fruit growers attending extension events.

Micro-irrigation in fruit growing

Benefits sought by fruit growers

Reduced use of water and labour

Greater control over volume delivered

Flexibility in timing of activities

Micro-irrigation in fruit growing

Farm Context

Limited labour

Limited water supplies

Problems with high water tables or salinity

Problems with supply of irrigation water at volume

Hilly or sandy country

High density planting

Irrigation water on demand

Farm Context and Benefit Segments

Yes No

Yes NoNo

Yes No

Segment 1Control and time

saving redevelopers

Segment 2Time-saving converters

Segment 3Water-saving

micro-irrigators

Segment 5Flood irrigators

Segment 4Control

redevelopers

High density planting

Limited labour

High density planting Limited water supplies, watertable or salinity

problems

Yes

23% 24% 17% 15% 22%

Implications - Research

1. Typically, the number of potential adopters is only a fraction of producers in an industry or region.

2. Knowing the benefit segments for an innovation would support the tailoring of research products for different segments.

3. Individual producers probably cannot represent all benefit segments. This should be considered in the recruitment of producers as participants in research programs.

Implications - Extension

1. The spread of innovations among potential adopters is usually under-estimated. This means extension has often been more successful than was thought.

2. Extension messages can be tailored to appeal to different benefit segments to accelerate adoption.

3. Declining attendance by producers may signal success rather than failure.

Implications - Policy

1. Extension is a policy instrument. It accelerates adoption by reducing the time and effort producers must invest in learning.

2. Other policy instruments are needed to expand the population of potential adopters.

3. The method described here could be used to help predict producers responses to policy instruments like infrastructure change and regulation.

Conclusion

1. The adoption of many agricultural innovations has not met expectations.

2. We have developed a method for identifying the potential adopters of agricultural innovations.

3. The method has shown that the number of potential adopters is often much smaller than we think. This means extension has often been more successful than we thought.

4. The method can be used to help set priorities for research, extension and policy.