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CHINACHINA
Altay AtlıAltay AtlıIstanbul, April 2007Istanbul, April 2007
A Communist country...
Is it?
Threat against world peace?
Or a balancing factor?
Opportunity for the global economy?
Or a danger?
Super power of the 21st century?
Or just a bubble?
History and development
Capitalism has been regarded as unique to Europe and as an organic outgrowth of Western civilisation.
The modern world system under the Western-based core, semi-periphery, periphery structure is a contemporary phenomenon.
History and development
The rise and fall of ancient civilisations
Mesopotamia
China
Egypt
Greece
Rome
America
India
History and development
Eurocentrism: practice, conscious or otherwise, of placing emphasis on European (and, generally, Western) concerns, culture and values at the expense of those of other cultures.
The rise of the West in the global order and the decline of the East began only in 1800’s.
The center of the world is now again moving to the East.
Far East.... Far from whom?
中国
Oldest and longest civilisation in the world....
Philosophy
Confuciuanism
Buddhism
Taoism
Impact on development
Philosophy
Principles of good conduct
Practical wisdom
Proper social relations
The Imperial Era
Unification of China in 221 BC under the First Emperor Qin Shi Huang.
“All Under Heaven”
The Qin Dynasty left a legacy of a centralised bureaucratic state.
A period that lasted until the fall of the empire in 1911.
The Imperial Era
Xia Dynasty (est. 2200 BC — est. 1700 BC) Shang Dynasty (est. 1700 BC — est. 1100 BC)Zhou Dynasty (est. 1100 BC — 256 BC) Qin Dynasty (221 BC - 206 BC) Han Dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD) Three Kingdom Period (220—280) Jin Dynasty (265—420) Southern-Northern Dynasties (420—589) Sui Dynasty (581—618) Tang Dynasty (618—907)Five Dynasties (907—960) Song Dynasty (960—1279) Yuan Dynasty (1206—1368) Ming Dynasty (1368—1644) Qing Dynasty (1616—1911)
Ancient Inventions
From 600 AD until 1500 AD, China was among the world’s most technologically advanced societies.
Printing
Paper
Gunpowder
Compass
Pottery and porcelain
Silk
Ancient inventions
Grand projects:
Great Wall
Silk Road
Maritime voyages
The aborted commercial revolution
Confucian anti-business ethics in the government.
By the end of the fifteenth century, imperial subjectswere forbidden from either building oceangoing ships or leaving the country. ISOLATION!
The decline of European-style mercantilism andindustrialization in China.
Science and philosophy were caught in a tight net oftraditions.
As a result, imperial decree the great navy wasdecommissioned; construction of seagoing ships wasforbidden; the iron industry gradually declined.
The Western Powers arrive
The Portuguese were the pioneers, establishing a foothold at Macao.
Later came the British.
Trade between China and the West was carried on in the guise of tribute: foreigners were obliged to follow the elaborate, centuries-old ritual imposed on envoys from China's tributary states. (except Russia)
There was no conception at the imperial court that the Europeans would expect or deserve to be treated as cultural or political equals.
The Western Powers arrive
The market in Europe and America for tea expanded greatly, a new drink in the West.
There was a continuing demand for Chinese silk and porcelain.
Pre-industrial China wanted little that the West had to offer.
RESULT: Growing trade deficit for the Westerns!
The Western Powers arrive
Raw cotton and opium from India became the staple British imports into China.
Despite opium was prohibited entry by imperial decree, the opium traffic was made possible through the connivance of profit-seeking merchants and a corrupt bureaucracy.
Opium Wars
1839-1842
British declare war on China, as a reaction to the banning of opium trade.
Unprepared for war and grossly underestimating the capabilities of the enemy, the Chinese were disastrously defeated.
China ceded the island of Hong Kong for 99 years; opened 5 more ports.
Abolished the licensed monopoly system of trade.
ORIGIN OF CHINESE SCEPTISM ON FOREIGNERS!
Decline of the Chinese Imperium
Taiping Rebellion (1850-64): Supressed; not by the government, but by regional armies. Provinces began to assert independence.
Defeat in the War against Japan (1894-1895)
Boxer Uprising (1898-1900) against foreign influence.
Some attempts to reform, taking the Meiji Restoration in Japan as example.
Republican Revolution of 1911
The republican revolution broke out on October 10, 1911, in Wuchang, the capital of Hubei Province led by Sun Yat-sen.
On January 1, 1912, Sun was inaugurated in Nanjing as the provisional president of the new Chinese Republic.
On February 12, 1912, the last Qing emperor, Puyi abdicated.
China in Chaos
The country disintegrated into literally hundreds of states of varying sizes, each controlled by a warlord and his private army. They fought each other.
Two important developments:
May Fourth Movement (1919)
Kuomintang (Nationalists) getting stronger.
Kuomintang
Soviet aid in 1923.
Three Principles of the People:
NationalismDemocracyLand Reform
Sun Yat-sen
Chiang Kai-shek
Northern Expedition to unite the nation (1928).
Chinese Communist Party
Founded in 1921: mostly intellectuals, not much military power.
1923-1931: Soviet control. Unite Communists and Nationalists.
Mao Zedong elected as chairman in 1931. Breach with the Nationalists.
Strategy: win mass upport among peasants, rather than trying to capture industrial towns. “People’s War”Guerilla warfare
Long March
1934-35: Kuomintang’s pursuit of the Communists.
Communists fled from this extermination campaign.
Meanwhile:JAPANESE
INVASION!
World War
Communists and Nationalists unite against the common enemy.
1937: Japan launched full scaled war against China.
Rape of Nanking.
Nationalists lose power, Communists win support.
World War
Why did Mao and the Communists gain support?
1) The inefficiency and corruption of the Nationalists in government.
2) Little imporvement in factory conditions.
3) No improvement in peasant poverty.
4) The Nationalists put up no effective resistance to the Japanese.
People’s Republic of China
Civil war: 1945-1949
PRC proclaimed on 1 October 1949.
Nationalists fled to Taiwan.
People’s Republic of China
A country devastated after the war against Japan and the civil war: destroyed infrastructure, serious food shortages.
Population then: 600 million. Huge task!
Support from peasants and middle class.
Soviet methods; process of trial and error.
People’s Republic of China
Continuous revolution:
• Class struggles• Mutual aid/Cooperative/collective• State ownership/plan economy• Self-reliance (domestic/international)• Basic need vs. capital accumulation• Mass line/participation vs. elitism• Commitment to equality, non-exploitation
Hundred Flowers Campaign (1957)
Great Leap Forward
Impossible Targets.
1958 Commune agricultural system established
“From each according to his ability to each according to his need”
No incentives to work hard: major failure
1959-1961 three lean years
8 million died (12 to 20 million)
Cultural Revolution
Growing opposition from the right wing members of the party ► Mao’s attempt to “save the revolution” by appealing to masses, especially the young people. Red Guards!
Extremists among Red Guards get out of control.
Not only western, but also traditional Chinese values were attacked. Intellectuals sent to labour camps for “re-education”.
It caused great disruption, ruined millions of lives and held up China’s economic development by ten years.
Post-Mao Period
Mao died in 1976.
Rivalry between hard liners and reformists.
Hardliners: Gang of FourReformists: Deng Xiaoping
In 1978, Deng gained ascendancy.
A period of dramatic policy changes began.
Deng Xiaoping
Four Modernizations Agriculture Industry Science and Technology National Defence
Accelerate the modernization process by stepping up the volume of foreign trade by opening up its markets, especially the purchase of machinery from Japan and the West.
Speed up economic development through foreign investment, a more open market, access to advanced technologies, and management experience.
MARKET SOCIALISM!
MA
R
Deng Xiaoping
Changes introduced during the Cultural Revolution were reversed.
Revolutionary committees replaced by elected groups.
Property confiscated from capitalists returned to survivors.
Greater freedom for intellectuals.
But: Mao’s legacy still alive!
Tiananmen Incident
Dilemma: Is it possible to give people more economic freedom and yet deny them any choice in other areas such as politics?
Economic problems in 1988 and 1989.
Effect of glasnost and perestroika in the USSR.
Student demonstrations began. On 3-4 June 1989, the PLA violently crushed the demonstrations. 1500-3000 dead.
After Tiananmen
Deng’s trip to the southern provinces in 1992 : Speeding up of reforms and economic opening.
Deng died in 1997.
Third Generation leader: Jiang Zemin.
Jiang Zemin
Substantial developmental growth through further reforms.
Peaceful return of Hong Kong and Macau from European rule.
Improved relations with the outside world.
Communist Party maintaining its tight control over the government.
Too concerned about his personal image at home and too conciliatory towards Russia and the United States abroad.
Inability to maintain control on various social imbalances and problems that surfaced during his term.
Hu Jintao
President of the People's Republic of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China since 2003.
Represents China's transition of leadership from old, establishment Communists to younger, more pragmatic technocrats.
Reinstated certain controls on the economy.
He is a pragmatist and hard-liner as far as any effort of political reform is concerned.
His foreign policy is seen as less conciliatory than that of his predecessor, and China's global influence has increased greatly since he took office.
State Structure
Foreign Policy
IDEOLOGY
Original Idea: Imperialism as the last stage of capitalism.
Shift from a sense of victimhood to great power mentality.
In achieving this goal, China is not pursuing any hegemonic or war-like ambitions. “PEACEFUL RISE”
Ideology is secondary to advancing national interest.
Foreign Policy
GOALS
Preservation of China’s Territorial Integrity.
Recovery of lost territory.
Recognition of China as the sole legitimate government of China.
Enhancing China’s International Stature.
Foreign Policy
FOUR PERIODS IN CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY
1949-1954 1954-1957 1957-1969 1969-.....
Lean to One Side
Bandung Spirit
Nationalism and
Isolation
Global Power
Politics
Foreign Policy
LEAN TO ONE SIDE (1949-1954)
Taiwan Issue: US is divided
1950 Treaty with Soviet Union
1950 the Korean War started
Direct Confrontation of Chinese Army and the US in Korea stalemate
1954 China attacked Taiwan — US defended signing treaty with ROC
Foreign Policy
BANDUNG SPIRIT (1954-1957)
Changing International Atmosphere
Stalin died Korea war finished Many colonies became independent North Vietnam was established
Neutralist Policy
Asian-African Congress: Bandung (Indonesia in 1955).
Third World “Have-not”s later including Latin America.
Foreign Policy
NATIONALISM AND ISOLATION (1957-1969)
Mao’s dissatisfaction with Stalin and Khrushchev.
In 1960 Soviet withdrew technicians and aid.
1962 China-India conflict ending with China’s victory
Chinese Isolationism proceeded during the Cultural Revolution.
Criticism against Soviet Revisionism heightened.
China-Soviet border conflict in 1968-69.
Foreign Policy
GLOBAL POWER POLITICS (1969-....)
USSR became more “dangerous” than USA.
Ping-Pong Diplomacy
April 1971 Mao invited US table-tennis team to China
1972 Nixon visited China: Shanghai Communiqué
Confirming One China Policy
1979 Full Diplomatic relations: US diplomacy with ROC ended.
Mutual Defense Treaty was replaced by The Taiwan Relations Act
1971 UN Security Council Permanent member
Foreign Policy
GLOBAL POWER POLITICS (1969-....)
Foreign Policy
GLOBAL POWER POLITICS (1969-....)
1970’s and 80’s: Seeking to create a secure regional and global environment for itself and to foster good relations with countries that could aid its economic development. Approaching West and countering Soviet expansionism.
1990’s: Working to recover relations with foreign countries after the disruption caused by the Tiananmen incident. Focusing at improving relations with Russia and Europe in order to counterbalance the United States.
Foreign Policy
CURRENT ISSUES
Shifting away from the balance strategy to the new security concept: “the post-Cold War era required nations to move away from thinking in terms of alliances and power blocs and toward thinking in terms of economic and diplomatic cooperation.”
China seeking a higher profile in the UN through its permanent seat on the Security Council and other multilateral organizations.
Making efforts to reduce tensions in Asia.
Cultivating a more cooperative relationship with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and working to further strengthen regional cooperation.
Improving relations with Russia: Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Foreign Policy
CURRENT ISSUES
CHINA-US RELATIONS
Economic concerns (value of RMB, textile, etc)Taiwan issueHu’s visit to USA in 2006.Shift in USA’s perception of China. (Clinton → Bush)
CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS
Ghosts of the pastLeadership in Asia
Foreign Policy
CURRENT ISSUES
CHINA IN AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA
Revival of the Bandung Spirit?
or
Economic pragmatizm?
SECURITY ISSUES
Increasing defense budget and militarisation.
Arms and nuclear material sales.
Chinese Economy
IN 2006...
Growth: 10.7 %
Trade volume: US$ 1.76 trillion
FDI inflow: US$ 69.5 billion
OVERHEATING?
Macro-controls against rapid growth of investment, excessive monetary credit and trade surplus.
Chinese Economy
REASONS OF HIGH GROWTH
Increasing inflow of investments (FDI and public investments)
High savings rates financing the investments
Open economy (Average tariffs went down from 41% in 1992 to 6% after WTO accession)
Skilled and inexpensive labour shifting to more productive areas (from agriculture to industry)
Chinese Economy
THREATS AGAINST SUSTAINABILITY
Weakness of the banking sector (4 state banks dominating the sector).
Corruption.
Inequality in income distribution and regional disparities.
Environmental problems.
Lack of transparency in bureaucracy and the judiciary system.
Turkish-Chinese Relations
Diplomatic relations established on 4 August 1971.
First visit: President Evren to Beijing in 1982.
Prime Minister Özal to Beijing in 1985.
President Li Xiannian to Ankara in 1986.
Premier Zhao Ziyang to Ankara in 1986.
Joint Comminiqué on Bilateral Competition during Jiang Zemin’s visit to Turkey in April 2002.
