On Play in the Garden of Empirical Analysis Serious Play Conference

20-22 August 2013Redmond, WA

J. D. FletcherInstitute for Defense Analyses

Sigmund TobiasState University of New York at Albany

fletcher@ida.org

Synthetic Environments:E.g., Simulations & Games

On Simulations and Games: Similarities

Simulations Games

Synthetic environments Synthetic environments

Missions Missions

Successful mission completion despite competition

Successful mission completion despite competition

Highly interactive Highly interactive

Governed by rules of engagement

Governed by rules of engagement

Selective realism Selective realism

On Simulations and Games: Differences

Simulations GamesWill sacrifice entertainment in favor of reality

Will sacrifice reality in favor of entertainment

Scenario/realistic tasks Storyline/fictional quests

Emphasis on task completion Emphasis on competition and levels

Not necessarily interactive Necessarily interactive

Focus on (rule) accuracy/detailed Focus on (rule) clarity/stylized

Not all simulations are games All games are simulations

Synthetic Environments: Advantages

• Safety

• Economy

• Visibility

• Time Control

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Where Do Synthetic Environments Fit In?Le

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Learning Objectives

Facts

Simple Concepts

AdaptiveProcedures

AbstractConcepts

Remember Understand Apply Analyze Evaluate Create

SimpleProcedures

(Framework courtesy of Anderson & Krathwohl, 2001)

Learning environments we have known how to create since the 1960s with drill and practice.

Learning environments we are learning how to create with authentic, situated, synthetic environments.

Assessment

Level Description Evaluation

(Did we do things right?)1 Surveys Impressions and opinions?

2 Outcomes Were the objectives achieved?

(Did we do the right things?)

3 Transfer Did the instruction improve workplace performance?

4 Benefits Is the enterprise more effective?

Effectiveness: What Are We Looking For?Kirkpatrick’s Four Levels of Evaluation

What About Costs, Cost/Effectiveness, Cost/BenefitsReturn on Investment, etc.?

What We Need: A Wish List

• Agreement on the operational definition of an instructional game (!)

• Examination of variables that are exclusive to games compared to robust competitors

• Measures of pre-test and post test learning

• Comparison with a control group receiving robust instruction intended to produce the same instructional objective

• Achievement measured quantitatively and in the same way for both treatment and control groups

An Argument for Using Games in Learning

We Know:

• Games can be compulsively motivating and immersing,

• People will voluntarily persist in playing games longer than they will engage in non-game learning,

• If the game is instructionally relevant, this engagement will increase time on (learning) tasks,

• Increased engaged time on learning tasks will yield increased learning.

Therefore:

• People will either learn more from games than from other instructional environments or learn the same amount at lower cost.

NB: Effect Sizes (Practical Significance)A descriptive (not inferential) statistic used to estimate the magnitude of an effect (e.g., experimental treatment). It may be calculated as:

Cohen’s d = Mean Group 1 – Mean of Group 2“Pooled” Standard Deviation

d < 0.20 Negligible

0.20 to 0.39 Small

0.40 to 0.59 Moderate

0.60 to 0.79 Large

d > 0.80 Very Large

People Do Learn from Games (1)

For Instance (Perception):

Who What Effect Size

Boot, et al. 2008Tracking speed 1.83Visual STM 2.04Task-switching 1.18

Castel, et al. 2005 Reaction time detect 0.88Reaction time visual search 1.12

Chisholm, et al. 2010Response speed 1.31Speed despite distractor 1.78

Nouchi, et al. 2012 Exec functioning 1.62 & 1.31Processing speed 1.12 & 1.34

People Do Learn from Games (2)

For Instance (Attitude & Affect):

Who What Effect Size

Bachen, et al. 2012 Global Empathy 0.25Interest in More Learning 0.47

Baldwin, et al. 2010 Self Esteem 0.42

Vos, et al. 2011Perceived Competence 0.38Interest 1.44Effort 1.13

People Do Learn from Games (3)For Instance (Subject Matter):

Who What Effect SizeGremmen & Potters, 1997

College Economics 0.76Follow up 0.78

Kebritichi 2010 High School Math 0.39

Ravenscroft & Matheson, 2002 Grade 1&2 Math 1.70

Segers & Verhoeven 2005

Kindergarten Phonics – 1st grade follow-up

0.43

Suh, & Kim 2010ESL Listening 0.53ESL Speaking 0.23Reading 0.31

Alex Wind’s Table

http://www.alexanderpwind.com/all_games_studies.shtml

NB: It’s /all_games_studies.shtml

• Randel et al. (1992) in 68 studies:– 56% of the studies found no difference between

simulations, games, and conventional instruction,– 32% of the studies favored simulations/games– 12 of 14 studies found more interest in

simulations/games than classroom instruction– Greater retention for games/simulations, even in some

studies showing no immediate differences. – Increasing computer capacity yields more powerful

sophisticated simulations and games

Previous Research Review

• Israeli pilots playing Space Fortress II (modified to simulate cockpit complexity ) performed better in actual flight than non gamers (Gopher, Weil, & Bareket, 1994)

• But assigning trainees to an off-the-shelf game (Apache Strike Force) had no transfer effects (Hart & Battiste, 1992)

A Paradox

Conduct Cognitive Task Analysis to Identify the Cognitive Processes Required by the Game and Task(s) to be learned.

– It is not just physical similarity between games and tasks that lead to learning and transfer. It is the overlap in cognitive processes engaged by both.

Recommendation 1

Provide Guidance

a) Pictorial Support. Reduces cognitive demands of game (cf The MultimediaPrinciple)

b) Encourage Participants to Reflect About Correct Answers Not to reflect about wrong answers

c) Use Unsupported Discovery Learning with Caution Kirschner, Sweller, & Clark (2006) cite “unambiguous evidence that minimal guidance during instruction is significantly less effective and efficient than guidance specifically designed to support the cognitive processing necessary for learning” (p. 76).

Recommendation 2

Use First Person (“I” “You”)in Player–Game Dialogue.

– Some findings suggest this practice will increase learning and transfer

– Unknown whether using player names improves learning

Recommendation 3

Use Animated Agents in Interactions with PlayersSome conflicting findings, especially for higher order

learningSince agents have never been shown to reduce

learning they might as well be used

Use Human, Not Synthetic Voices Seems to increase learning and transferEasy to find good speakers or actors to record speech

Recommendations 4 & 5

– Maximize User Interactivity • Increases learner involvement in game (Flow) and

post test scores

– Reduce Cognitive Load • Sweller, Mayer, and others have shown importance

of attending to cognitive load(e.g., present graphics with text)

Recommendations 6 & 7

–Maximize Motivation • Games should have appropriate challenge,

arouse curiosity, & include fantasy elements appealing to users

(Yerkes-Dodson Inverted U; Vygotsky’s ZPD) • Assure that motivation is related to game success

and avoid seductive details that reduce learning

Recommendation 8

– Increase Pro-social Content & Reduce Aggression (per Gentile, 2009)• Games can increase pro-social attitudes• Games can increase aggression• Hence minimize aggressive game behavior and

maximize pro-social content increased

Recommendation 9

– Revise Games and Task Analyses• Off the shelf games that appear similar to task may

not emphasize same cognitive processes

– Integrate Games with Instructional and Task Objectives • Research indicates that games not integrated into

curriculum/task lead to learning game strategy but not more general learning

Recommendations 10 & 11

– Keep Abreast of Research Findings• Knowledge in area is exploding & recommendations

may be revised in light of newer findings.

– Use Teams to Develop Instructional Games. • No one person has skills/knowledge in cognitive task

analysis, game design, computer expertise, familiarity with research findings

Recommendations 12 & 13

…There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things...Niccolo Machiavelli (1469 – 1527), De Principatibus, 1513

About Change …

There is no sun without shadow, and it is essential to know the night … The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man’s heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy.

-- Albert Camus

It’s all rock and roll to me.-- M. Jagger & K. Richards

And Finally

Questions? Comments? Objections? Complaints?

Thank you!

Questions? Comments? Objections? Complaints?

Thank you!