Kiss Approach To Risk Based Decision Making

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Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com

ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

By F.+C. Oboni * KISS=Keep it Simple

KISS* Approach to Risk Based Alternative Selection: A Guide to Improvement and Success

http://www.riskope.com/

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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Hi, my name is Stake,

Mat Stake and I ....


3 3 3Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com

ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

...need to decide among these alternatives:

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3Bla bla Bla Bla Bla Bla

Alternative # 1 # 2 # 3Description of each Alternative your have to select from

Maintain Status Quo

Introduce a new

process...

Modify your procedures

with....

Of course you can write the description of the three (or more) alternatives you have to select from to “customize” or “own” the example. It will be clearer to you.A lawyer could use this scheme to select, for example, among negotiating, going through a simplified procedure, or a full pledged litigation. An IT specialist could use this to decide changes to a network, a Manager of an operation could use this to decide process changes etc.



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Of course it's very important for me to select the best alternative.

In the past I have trusted my intuition, asked people....

I know I could have made better, but I did not know how...

One thing I have learned, however....


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Good decisions have mortal Enemies. Here are a few examples:

Pit Fall Rozy Scenario


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...and of course I could not forget to mention these two...

Perryl Shield Dr. Noel Tall


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By quantifying upside and downside risks I could probably make a better decision, but I did not know how......until I met these two guys...


http://book.oboni.net/authors.php

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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

They said I could do it, without being an expert/mathematician, with their facilitation/supervision.

They said I should use a Quantitative Approach (i.e. based on numbers, money) to obtain concrete support to my selection.

They said not to worry and start immediately, coached remotely by them via email or Skype, or to follow one of their Seminars, read their Book, BLOG ....


http://infocenter.oboni.net/representing_risk.php

http://foboni.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/comparing-projects-by-using-riskopes-cdaesm-comparative-decision-analysis-economic-safety-margin/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4ruEAZ7YFs&feature=channel_page

http://www.slideshare.net/Foboni/web-based-courses-on-risk-and-crisis-management-for-small-groups

http://book.oboni.net/

http://www.foboni.wordpress.com/

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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

It is quite simple to get started.. Just realize: for each Alternative, each thing that can go wrong or turn out positive has a certain likelihood of doing so, and if that happens I can make or lose some money.

Let's look at some examples of Likelihood:

A coin has approximately ½ chances of coming out on une side: Likelihood 1/2=0.5A dice has approximately 1/6 chances of coming out with one specific number: Likelihood 1/6= 0.1667The weather forecast tells you the probability of precipitation (POP) tomorrow is 0.9, Likelihood =0.9= 9/10.

Here is the story of how it is done...some details are missing to keep the story short.


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For any event a likelyhood can be evaluated, or estimated.

It is always safe to make an optimistc and a pessimistic evaluation and say that the likelihood will be between so much and that much.

NB: Likelyhood, by definition cannot be smaller than zero, or larger than one.Likelihood One means the event is certain to occur, Likelihood zero (nil) means it will never occur. You should never use zero or one, as there will always be some uncertainty.

I was told that I can learn estimation techniques for complex events, allowing me to formulate hilow estimates. I learned that some guys out there are afraid of doing real estimates, so they use index nubers that endup meaning nothing....and actually will guide them into critical mistakes. Others only use words, at at the end of the day they have a bunch of words, nothing more, available to them to support their decisions.


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

These guys constitute a Hazard...with a likelihood of dropping on Rozy a given volume. The Consequence is: a ruined day, the swimming suit to be washed etc.


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Examples of tolerability curves.The next step? Any event can bring in positive or negativeconsequences (very rarely it can be neutral, meaning its consequence is basically nil)

To make it simple.. let's consider consequences as money (but could be anything else).

If your are betting in a game of dice or coins, then the consequence will be what you may win or lose from your bet.If you are considering the Alternative of opening a cafè business downtown vs. bad weather, then you may be looking at an additional profit (because people will spend all day at your cozy café), or a loss, if no one shows up.

For any event a consequence can be evaluated, or estimated. It is always safe to make an optimistc and a pessimistic evaluation and say that the consequence will be between so much and that much. Again, techniques exist to solve complex consequence evaluations with nonmonetary stuff.


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Let's put this concept on paper: just remember, a mathematician would probably die of an heart attack right here, because I am making it too simple for you!

Likelihood

Consequence

Max Likelihood

Min Likelihood

Max

C

onse

quen

ce

Min

C

onse

quen

ce

0.00

Likelihood

1.00


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Let's use this information to evaluate the risks of a car accident. Let's start with a “fender bender” scenario

Likelihood

Consequence

1/10 per year

1/30 per year

1,00

0$

200$

0.00

1.00



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Likelihood

1/80 per year

1/100 per year

25,0

00$

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Let's use the same plot to evaluate the risks of “totalling your car” scenario

35,0

00$


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Let's now build a single plot to display the risks of a car accident scenario from “fender bender” to “totalling your car”

Likelihood

1/80 per year

1/100 per year

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Likelihood

1/80 per year

1/100 per year

1.00

Consequence

25,0

00$

35,0

00$

1/10 per year

1/30 per year

200$

1,00

0$


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

In real studies a single plot displaying the risks of a complete scenario encompassing small to catastrophic subscenarios is often shown as a “Risk Bubble”

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Likelihood

1/100 per year

1.00

Consequence35

,000

$

1/10 per year20

0$

Just remember, a mathematician would probably die of an heart attack right here, because I am making it too simple!


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

It's easy to add Reputational Damages to the Risk Bubble if they are converted into monetary value (you lose your job because of drunk driving, for example...)...see the red line.

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Likelihood

1/100 per year

1.00

Consequence35

,000

$

1/10 per year20

0$


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Those two guys told me they call that red line the “Pinocchio Nose” of the scenario.

If you are caught lying after an accident (hence the Pinocchio reference), your reputation will be more damaged:the more you lie, the longer the nose...easy!

By the way, small accidents (risks) can have a huge Pinocchio nose...if you are unprepared to deal with the crisis that may come in the aftermath of the accident; when journalist willask you difficult questions in a moment of stress.

Thus: evaluate your risks and prepare for crises!


http://infocenter.oboni.net/general_terminology.php

http://infocenter.oboni.net/crisis.php

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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

At the end of the day I had a plot similar to the one below for the first alternative (I have omitted the reputational damages, i.e. the Pinocchio Nose for each bubble.)

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Likelihood

1.00

Consequence

For each thing that can go wrong or make money you will have a bubble in the plot. The mathematician is already dead, so we will not mention him/her again...


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

The two guys CONGRATULATED me!!! You have just compeleted your first Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), for one of the alternatives you have to chose from!

They also said:

You are on a good way to make sensible and transparent decisions.

Please complete the same procedure for each alternative, and look at the three risk assessment plots (QRAs) once you are done.

So, I went home and set up for a long night of work...


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

This is what I got next morning. As I was sipping my coffee I could not understad why they had asked me to do all this work...but I was sure they would tell me soon

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Likelihood

1.00

Consequence

Alternative 1 Risks

Alternative 2 Risks

Alternative 3 Risks


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Instead of telling me right away, they started asking me questions:

Mat, are there risks that you can afford (tolerate)?

Mat, which one of the Alternatives is the riskier?

Mat, which alternative would you select, now?

I realized I was not able to reply any of these questions and so, before I committed ritual suicide out of shear despair they said I needed to do one more thing:

determine my tolerability to risks!


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

I had never heard talking about Risk Tolerability before.Basically, they said, tolerabiity criteria are different for each person, organization, corporation:

With three questions it is possible to determine the parameters of the tolerabiity criteria of anyone.

The questions may be answered in five minutes by an individual, or take a couple days of a facilitated workshop for a corporation, with its FCO and Board present.

Once it's done, it's a great tool, as it is the key to serious, concrete Entreprise Risk Management and to Risk Based Decision Making/Alternative Selection


http://infocenter.oboni.net/tolerability.php

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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

I am sure your're diying to see one, right?So here it is: from a real QRA! NB: Risk Bubbles are reduced to dots (centre) or vertical lines (to highight min, max Likelihood)

Like

lihoo

d

Consequence in MUS$

1/10

1/100

1/1000

1

1 in a Million

.....


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

See the difference below? On the left you've 14 risk scenarios.On the right you have the same together with the Tolerability.

The left plot shows me the risks, but the right one tells me that only seven are critical for this company. Actually it can be shown that only three are really bad!


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Mat, are there risks that you can afford (tolerate)?

Mat, which one of the Alternatives is the riskier (including of course upside and downside risks)?

Mat, which alternative would you select, now?

By determining my Tolerability curve and plotting it on top of the Risk Bubbles of each Alternative I can now reply the threequestions the guys asked me.


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I felt great! Now I was able to select the best alternative for me,including postives and negatives of each, my appetite for risk, economic solidity.

People like Geo Pardy will not scare me away from business or life opportunities!

I will not end up “bombed” like Rozy Scenario either!

But, may be more importantly...


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I will not miss good opportunities like Perryl Shield, or Pitt Fall...I would enjoy my success!

From NOW ON!


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

What can I accomplish now?By using a transparent and sound quantitative

approach I can:

Scientifically select the most significant risks, Draw attention to the objective highest exposures (filtering emotional perceptions), andPrioritize them to allow reasonable mitigation in a very focused way.

I can clearly enhance the ability to prioritize risks for a rational and sustainable development.


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

BUT, more importantly

Create the basis to avoid a slide into

a crisis, by proactively

controlling the situation.

NB: Long term comparison of Alternatives requires the use of more sohisticated tools, such as CDA (Comparative Decision Analysis in replacement to classic NPV


Education

Kiss Approach To Risk Based Decision Making