FINEST HOURChurchill in 1940

What if Churchill had not been there?

Counterfactual Question:

Economic Downturn

Failed

Democratic States

Challenges

to International Status Quo

Madness in great ones must not unwatch’d go.

Hamlet

“Do not delude yourselves. . . . that all that Germany is asking for is equal status. . . . That is not what Germany is seeking. All these bands of sturdy Teutonic youths marching through the streets and roads of Germany, with the light in their eyes to suffer for the fatherland, are not looking for status. They are looking for weapons.” WSC, 23 November 1932

“One of the things which we were told after the Great War would be a security for us was that Germany would be a democracy with parliamentary institutions. All that has been swept away. You have dictatorship—most grim dictatorship. You have militarism and appeals to every form of fighting spirit.”

WSC, 13 April 1933

“Conflict of Spiritual and Moral Ideas”

“You have to consider the character of the Nazi movement and the ends which it implies. . . . There can never be friendship between British democracy and the Nazi power, that power which spurns Christian ethics, which cheers its onward course by a barbarous paganism, which vaunts the spirit of aggression and conquest, which derives strength and perverted pleasure from the persecution, and uses, as we have seen, with pitiless brutality the threat of murderous force. That power cannot ever be a trusted friend of British democracy.”

WSC, 5 October 1938

We must add to them the power of ideas.

. . . arms are not sufficient by themselves.

“There has been formed in the world the curious custom of dividing peoples into so-called ‘authoritarian’ states—that is, disciplined states—and democratic states. . . . “Mr. Churchill had stated his view publicly, namely that the present regime in Germany must be overthrown with the aid of forces within Germany which would gladly co-operate. If Mr. Churchill would but spend less of his time in émigré circles—that is, with traitors to their country maintained and paid abroad—and more of his time with Germans, then he would realize the utter madness and stupidity of his idle chatter. I can only assure this gentleman, who would appear to be living on the moon, of one thing: there is no such force in Germany which could turn against the present regime.”

Hitler Speech, 6 November 1938

“I bet you that in five years Churchill will be Prime Minister and then we will be in a fine mess! I can assure you that I won’t wait until I have been cornered. I will strike before then and tear up the web that the English spider wants to weave around me.”

Hitler to Ribbentrop December 1937

Finding a Moderate Nazi

“I had established a certain confidence, which was my aim, and on my side, in spite of the hardness and ruthlessness I thought I saw in his face, I got the impression that here was a man who could be relied upon when he had given his word.”

Neville Chamberlainto his sister Ida

PEACE?

Burden of ArmamentsPercent of GDP Devoted to Military Effort

1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940

Germany 1.4 1.6 6.3 8.7 13.7 14.7 18.9 23 40

Great Britain 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.3 4.3 5.9 15 44

1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19400

2.55

7.510

12.515

17.520

22.525

27.530

32.535

37.540

42.545

47.5

BritainGermany

Burden of ArmamentsPercent of GDP Devoted to Military Effort

“Locust Years”“I have been staggered by the failure of the House of Commons to react effectively against those dangers [facing the country]. I never would have believed that we should have been allowed to go on getting into this plight, month by month, year by year.”

Churchill, 12 November 1936

“We are told that plans are being made and that paper work is proceeding. All that ought to have been done long ago. We ought to have a large vote of credit to double our Air Force; we ought to have it now, and a larger vote of credit as soon as possible to redouble the Air Force.”

WSC, 7 July 1934

EXPANSION OF GERMAN AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY

1933

EMPLOYED: 12,000

VALUE OF OUTPUT:

RM 37M.

1936

EMPLOYED: 188,000

VALUE OF OUTPUT:

RM 527M.

GERMAN AIRCRAFT PRODUCTION

1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

TOTAL 368 1,968 3,183 5,112 5,606 5,235 8,295

COMBAT - 840 1,823 1,530 2,651 3,350 4,733

AIRCRAFT PRODUCTION

1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941

GERMANY 36 368 1968 3183 5112 5606 5235 8295 10247 11776

GREAT BRITAIN

445 633 740 1140 1877 2153 2827 7940 15049 20094

FRANCE - - - 785 890 743 1382 3163 - -

“What is the current military situation in England? . . . England is vulnerable to air attack. The English air force itself has only about 130,000 men, whereas we have 390,000.”

Hitler to German Military Commanders, 22 August 1939

COMRADES IN CRIME

“Winston is Back”

“With this ill-omened press report in hand [about Churchill’s return to the British government], Goering stepped out of Hitler’s salon. He dropped into the nearest chair and said wearily: ‘Churchill in the cabinet. That means that the war is really on. Now we shall have war with England.’”

Albert Speer

British and French Strategy

• No major offensive to help Poland• Buildup of British and French

armed forces• Economic warfare• Peripheral campaigns• Blunt coming German offensive in

the West• Defense-to-offense transition in 1941

“My policy remains the same. Hold on tight, keep up the economic pressure, push on with munitions production and military preparations with the utmost energy, take no offensive until Hitler begins it. I reckon that if we are allowed to carry on this policy we shall have won the war by the spring.”

Neville Chamberlain

CHURCHILLOR

HALIFAX?

Struggle for Survival“I would say to the House [of Commons], as I said to those who have joined this Government: ‘I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.’

“We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many. many long months of struggle and of suffering. You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us: to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: Victory—victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.”

WSC, May 13, 1940

German and Allied StrengthWestern Front, 10 May 1940

Germany Allies

Divisions 118 151Artillery 7378 14000Tanks 2439 4204Overall Air Strength(Bombers and Fighters)

3578 4469

Operational Aircraft 2589 1453

MANSTEIN PLAN

THE

SICKLE

CUT

XXXXX

PANZER LEADERS

Guderian Rommel

“The commander-in-chief [Gamelin] briefly explained what had happened. North and south of Sedan, on a front of fifty or sixty miles, the Germans had broken through. The French army in front of them was destroyed or scattered. A heavy onrush of armoured vehicles was advancing with unheard-of speed . . . . When he stopped there was a considerable silence. I then asked: “Where is the strategic reserve?” and, breaking into French, which I used indifferently (in every sense): “Où est la masse de manœuvre?” General Gamelin turned to me and, with a shake of the head and a shrug, said: “Aucune.” . . . “NO STRATEGIC RESERVE. “Aucune.” I was dumbfounded. What were we to think of the great French Army and its highest chiefs? It had never occurred to me that any commanders having to defend five hundred miles of engaged front would have left themselves unprovided with a mass of manœuvre. . . . “What was the Maginot Line for? It should have economised troops . . . enabling large forces to be held in reserve . . . . But now there was no reserve. I admit this was one of the greatest surprises I have had in my life.”

Churchill, Their Finest Hour, pp. 42-3

“A miracle of deliverance achieved by valour, by perseverance, by perfect discipline, by faultless service, by resource, by skill, by unconquerable fidelity, is manifest to us all. . . . Over 335,000 men, French and British, [escaped] out of the jaws of death and shame . . . . We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.”

Churchill, 4 June 1940

NEVER SURRENDER“I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if

nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our island home, to ride out the storm of war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone. At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of His Majesty’s Government—every man of them. That is the will of the Parliament and the nation. . . . Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.”

WSC, June 4, 1940

THEENGLISHPARSON

Realism?“We had to face the fact that it was not so much now a question of imposing a complete defeat upon Germany but of safeguarding the independence of our empire. . . . We should naturally be prepared to consider any proposals which might lead to this, provided our liberty and independence were assured.”

Lord Halifax

“I am convinced that every man of you would rise up and tear me down from my place if I were for one moment to contemplate parley or surrender. If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood upon the ground.”

WSC to Cabinet28 May 1940

Irrational PM?“I thought Winston talked the most frightful rot. It drives me to despair when he works himself up into a position of emotion when he ought to make his brain think and reason.”

Making Peace?

“No opportunity should be missed of compromise if reasonable conditions could be agreed, and no diehards would be allowed to stand in the way.”

R. A. Butler to Björn Prytz

“Common sense and not bravado would dictate the British government’s policy.”

Lord Halifax

“[If Hitler offered moderate terms,] we should be foolish if we did not accept them.”

Lord Halifax

“Well, this week things will come to a head in England. Churchill cannot hold on, of course. A compromise government will be formed. We are very close to the end of the war.”

Goebbels Diary, 23 June 1940

PEACE?

Kennedy’s Assessment

“I inquired [of Churchill] what the United States could do to help that wouldn’t leave us holding the bag for a war which the Allies expected to lose; that if we had to fight it seemed to me that we should do better fighting in our own back yard.”

Kennedy to FDR, 15 May 1940

“I saw Chamberlain this afternoon. He is definitely a heartbroken and physically broken man. He looks ghastly; and I should judge he is in a frightfully nervous condition.”

Kennedy Diary, 16 May 1940

“The condition of Britain’s preparedness affecting her ability to fight the kind of war Hitler wages still appears to be appallingly weak.”

Kennedy Diary 12 June 1940

“The action we have already taken should be, in itself, sufficient to dispose once and for all of the lies and rumors . . . that we have the slightest intention of entering into negotiations . . . with the German and Italian Governments. We shall, on the contrary, prosecute the war with the utmost vigor by all the means that are open to us until the righteous purposes for which we entered upon it have been fulfilled.”

Churchill to the House of Commons, 4 July 1940

Speaking to Different Audiences

“All crimes in history pale before this new act of piracy by the British Government.”

Official German Government Comment, 4 July 1940

“Even if there were only the most remote possibility of seeing your Fleet pass into German hands, the British Government had reason to act as it did. I would not have acted otherwise. I am a realist.”

FDR to the French Ambassador, 4 July 1940

“Should the invader come to Britain, there will be no placid lying down of the people in submission before him as we have seen, alas, in other countries. We shall defend every village, every town, and every city. The vast mass of London itself, fought street by street, could easily devour an entire hostile army; and we would rather see London in ruins and ashes than that it should be tamely and abjectly enslaved. I am bound to state these facts, because it is necessary to inform our people of our intentions, and thus to reassure them.”

WSC, 14 July 1940

“Mr. Churchill has just declared again that he wants the war [to continue] . . . .

“So far I have hardly bothered to respond to this. But that need not mean that this is or will remain my only answer.

“I am quite aware of the fact that people will suffer incredible misery and misfortune from our impending response. Naturally this will not affect Mr. Churchill, for he will certainly be in Canada where the property and the children of the most important people who have an interest in the war have already been taken. But for millions of other people there will be great misery. And perhaps Mr. Churchill should believe me for once when I prophesy the following:

“A great empire will be destroyed. A world empire that I never intended to destroy or even damage. But it is clear to me that the continuation of this struggle will end with the complete destruction of one of the two opponents. Mr. Churchill may believe that this will be Germany. I know that it will be England.

“At this hour I feel compelled by conscience once more to appeal to reason in England. . . . I can see no reason why this war should go on.”

Hitler, Reichstag Speech, 19 July 1940

Why Make Peace?

France knocked out British army practically disarmed Coalition of jackals forming British sea lines of communication in

danger German air offensive against British

homeland Britain faced financial exhaustion No allies in sight What strategy would defeat Germany,

rolling back its conquests and overthrowing the Nazi regime?

Hitler might offer a good deal

Churchill’s Strategy“Good and Reasonable Hopes for Final Victory”

• Air power buildup– Homeland defense of Britain– Bomber offensive against Germany

• Defense of sea lanes• Support for insurgencies in Europe• Work toward alliance with the

United States• Secure Britain’s position in the

Middle East

“There are only two ways left now of winning the war, and they both begin with A. One is aeroplanes and the other is America.”

Winston ChurchillSeptember 1917

Preparing for the Worst

British Chiefs Assessment

•Uphold Civilian Morale•Maintain Air Defenses

Finest Hour“[T]he Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilisation. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned against us. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, ‘This was their finest hour.’”

Churchill, 18 June 1940

“The whole crux of the matter is . . . the strength of the German air force. . . . If they have the strength they pretend to have and they come over and knock off the British air force, it will not make the slightest difference what land precautions the British have made. No country can stand up unless it has air parity with another country.”

Joseph Kennedy to JFK, 2 August 1940

FIRST BATTLE OF BRITAIN

Air Chief MarshalSir Hugh Dowding

“The gratitude of every home in our Island, in our empire . . . goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger, are turning the tide of the world war by their prowess and by their devotion. Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few. All hearts go out to the fighter pilots, whose brilliant actions we see with our own eyes day after day.”

WSC, August 20, 1940

SINGLE-ENGINED FIGHTER PILOT STRENGTH

RAF LUFTWAFFE

JUNE 1,200 906

AUGUST 1,377 869

SEPTEMBER 1,422 735

NOVEMBER 1,796 673

“BOMBEN AUF ENGLAND!”

HOMELAND DEFENSE

August 1940• 51 fighter

squadrons• 26 active

divisions• Home Guard:

1,000,000

August 1941• 78 fighter

squadrons• 39 active

divisions• Home Guard:

1,500,000

“[The will of the whole nation] was resolute and remorseless and, as it proved, unconquerable. It fell to me to express it, and if I found the right words you must remember that I have earned my living by my pen and by my tongue. It was the nation and race dwelling all around the globe that had the lion heart. I had the luck to be called upon to give the roar.”

Churchill, 30 November 1954