LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

IRANPART 3: EARTHQUAKES

IRAN

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN IRAN

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN IRAN

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

LANDSLIDES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric interactions cause EARTHQUAKES

TECTONIC PLATES

IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN —ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES

Iran has a long history of destructive earthquakes, which have left at least

126,000 dead during the 20th and 21st centuries.

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure that are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards will be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of emergency situations that can occur.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTH-QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

HAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISK

IRAN’S COMMINITIES

IRAN’S COMMINITIES

DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• HAZARDS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• FORECASTS/SCENARIOS• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTH-QUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

(AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

(AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

EARTHQUAKEHAZARDS MODEL

EARTHQUAKEHAZARDS MODEL

SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

Iran has many well-known seismically active faults, which have generated devastating earthquakes in recent

years, including a M6.6 earthquake in 2003 that destroyed the city of Bam and killed more than 26,000 people

REGIONAL SEISMICITY

LOCAL SEISMICITY

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN AN EARTHQUAKE

A communities people, property, essential and critical infrastructure, business enterprise, and government centers.

UNREINFO

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTH-QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTH-QUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

SOME OF IRAN’S MANY NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

M6.6 BAM: DECEMBER 26, 2003

M6.4 TABRIZ: AUG. 11, 2012

M6.3 TABRIZ: AUG. 11. 2012

BAM EARTHQUAKE: DECEMBER 26, 2003

CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE EARTHQUAKE:

CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE M6.6 EARTHQUAKE

CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: AFTER EARTHQUAKE

CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: AFTER EARTHQUAKE

IMPACTS

• The Bam earthquake was particularly destructive, with 26,271 dead and 30,000 injured.

.

EXACERBATING FACTORS

• Iran’s earthquake specialists knew that the mud bricks of the citadel, a historical cultural heritage, did NOT comply with earthquake regulations set in 1989, but the mud bricks, a fact of life, could not be adequately strengthened.

.

EXACERBATING FACTORS

• The high morbidity and mortality tolls were exacerbated by the fragility of the mud brick construction materials.

.

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE:

Many nations, including the USA, offered assistance and

resources.

TWIN MODERATE-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES STRIKE IRAN

SATURDAY, AUGUST 11, 2012

LOCATION MAP

THE EARTHQUAKES (Source: US Geological Survey)

• Saturday's first quake of M6.4 struck just before 5 pm 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9 km (6.2 miles).

• Saturday’s second quake of M6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth.

The earthquakes struck in East Azerbaijan province, a

mountainous region that neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia to the north and is predominantly

populated by ethnic Azeris, a minority group.

INITIAL IMPACTS

• Over 1,000 villages were affected, with over 5,000 buildings in 100 villages partially or totally destroyed as concrete-block and mud-brick buildings collapsed.

• At least 20 villages could not be reached because of impassable roads.

• People in some villages were in dire need of food and drinking water.

VARZAGHAN: DAMAGE

VARZAGHAN: DAMAGE

INITIAL IMPACTS

• Over 300 dead (more likely), with over 60 percent being women and children, partly due to the time of day (5 PM) that the quake struck.

• Over 1,800 injured.

INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)

• 36,000 people in the quake-hit area were provided with emergency shelter.

• Many slept on the street and in parks.• A field hospital set up in Varzaghan on

Sunday to treat the injured was staffed by just two doctors, who, because of shortages of medical supplies and food, were hard pressed to meet the emergency medical needs.

INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)

• Hospitals in Tabriz (49 km distance) took in many of the injured from the surrounding villages.

• Water, electricity, and phone lines in the Varzaghan area were all down, further hindering rescue efforts

• Preliminary loss estimate: $650 million USD

VARZAGHAN: INITIAL S & R MOSTLY BY RESIDENTS; AUG 11th

A CONTROVERSIAL DECISION

Search and rescue was stopped after 24 hours and a 2-day

period of mourning started

THIS DISASTER EXPOSED POLICY FLAWS

• UN—PROTECTED• UN—PREPARED• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY

FACT: VILLAGE HOUSES WITH LITTLE OF NO EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE COLLAPSED,

INCREASINGING DEATHS AND INJURIES

The 5 pm occurrence) instead of a 10 pm occurrence) likely reduced the

number of deaths.

FACT: KNOWING WHERE THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS

ARE AND BEING UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE

EARTHQUAKES LEADS TO UNNECESSAY DISASTERS

FACT: EVEN THE WORLD’S BEST FIRST RESPONDERS, FIND THAT

COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, IMPASSABLE ROADS,

AFTERSHOCKS, and NIGHTFALL WILL SLOW SEARCH AND RESCUE

OPERATIONS AND HINDER EMERGENCY RESPONSE

IRANIAN RED CRESCENT WILLING TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL AID

"We would welcome help by any country," said Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, during his visit to the earthquake-stricken

area on Tuesday, August 14th.

RED CRESCENT ASSETS DEPLOYED

• 1,100 Red Crescent workers were deployed with 44,000 food packages and 5,600 tents for survivors needing temporary shelter.

IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE

IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE

• BUT, EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!