Measuring the adaptive capacity of Southern Queensland farmers to climate change

Peter Brown1, Kerry Bridle1,2, Rhonda Toms-Morgan3, Daniel Rodriguez4

1CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, 2Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, 3Queensland Murray-Darling Committee , 4University of Queensland

Background

Project: Developing climate change adaptation strategies for Australia’s mixed crop-livestock farming systems

Objectives: • to evaluate the likely regional on-farm impacts of

climate change and variability• to identify the costs and benefits of regional on-

farm climate change adaptation options and barriers to adoption

• to increase knowledge and awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation options

What is adaptive capacity?

•Adaptation• the decision-making process and the set of actions

undertaken to maintain the capacity to deal with current or future predicted change

•Adaptive capacity• the preconditions necessary to enable adaptation, including

social and physical elements, and the ability to mobilize these elements

source: Nelson, D. R., Adger, W. N., and Brown, K. (2007). Adaptation to environmental change contributions of a resilience framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32, 11.1-11.25.

Coonabarabran, Central West

Why monitor adaptive capacity?

Attributes ofmanagementpractices

Capacity of ruralhouseholds

Aspirations of ruralhouseholds

Adoption of specific practices

Generic capacityto adapt

Adaptive capacity

Degree of uncertainty of threatUncertain future

challengesResponse to

specific drivers

ScaleNational, StateLocal/household

The 5 capitals – Rural Livelihoods (Ellis 2000)

• Human capital – the skills, health (including mental) and education of individuals that contribute to the productivity of labour and capacity to manage land.

• Social capital – reciprocal claims on others by virtue of social relationships, the close social bonds that facilitate cooperative action and the social bridging, and linking via which ideas and resources are accessed.

• Natural capital – the productivity of land, and actions to sustain productivity, as well as the water and biological resources from which rural livelihoods are derived.

• Physical (built) capital – capital items produced by economic activity from other types of capital that can include infrastructure, equipment and improvements in genetic resources (crops, livestock).

• Financial capital – the level, variability and diversity of income sources, and access to other financial resources (credit and savings) that together contribute to wealth.

• Given the various climate change projections, do you think you will be able to adapt or transform?

• How will it impact on your ability to adapt or transform?

National Workshops

Climate projections Impacts on crops/livestock

Scoring and ranking indicators

1. What is the rationale for using these indicators?2. Why are they high or low in each region?

What are the important differences between regions? Is it going up/down/same/don’t know; differences between

regions?

3. What are the priorities for building adaptive capacity? Who needs to do what?

0 1 2 3 4 5

Low HighMedium

Not supporting effective adaptation

Supporting effective adaptation

Could be improved

High priority for actionDoes not need

immediate actionNeeds monitoring, may

need some action

Constraining EnablingConstraining Enabling

Queensland workshops

Roma

Goondiwindi

SEQ graziers

Brisbane

Roma – 350-650 mm rf (summer)Goondi – 350-650 mm rfSEQ – 650-1200 mm rf

Self-assessment of the five capitals for each region

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

Goondi Roma SEQ National Score Frequency

Age/health 1 3 3 2.3 93%

Attitude for change 3.5 2 2 2.6 50%

Skilled labour 1 3.5   2.3 71%

Business skills   1   2.8 50%

Farmer education/experience   3 4 2.9 64%

Family support/skills 2    Access to information   0    

Human Capital

  National

  Goondi Roma SEQ Score Frequency

Rural communities   3.5 2 2.9 79%

Access to services   2.5   1.9 64%

Family unit 2.5   2.4 57%

Access to information 2 4 2 3.1 50%

Change to traditional agricultural land use

1.5 2.5  

Isolation/rural decline 2.5    

Access to labour 2    

Farmer networks   4  

Social Capital

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

  Goondi Roma SEQ National

       Score Frequency

Water resources 3 2.5 2 2.7 93%

Soil health   3 3.1 79%

Climate   4 2.7 50%Land capability 3 2.5 4  Natural resources 3.5 3    Landscape amenity 3.5    

Pests/weeds/diseases   1.5    Mining   4  Pasture/ground cover   3  

Natural Capital

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

 Goondi Roma SEQ National

     Score Frequency

Regional infrastructure 2.5 1 4 2.5 100%

Genetics (plant/animal) 4   3.3 50%

Plant & machinery   2.5 3.3 57%

Technology   2   2.9 50%

Water infrastructure 4 2 2  

Communication technology 3 2    

Access to services 4    

Farm business size   2.5  

Physical Capital

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

  Goondi Roma SEQ National

      Score Frequency

Equity/debt 1.5 0 1.4 79%

Land price 1 2.5 1 2.1 79%

Off farm income 3.5 4.5 3 3.5 71%

Cost of production 1.5   1.4 64%

Value for products 0.5    

Attitude for investment 0.5        

Business management 2      

Enterprise diversification 3.5  

Financial policy 1.5      

Market access 4

Access to credit 1

Financial Capital

≤2 = constraining≥3 = enabling

Summary

• Preliminary results from the 14 workshops indicate that there are approximately 20 indicators for the five capitals that are common across the country

• Most indicators are not restricted to climate change or to particular enterprises

• These indicators may score highly in some areas but low in others – context is important

• Whether an indicator is perceived to be constraining or enabling is more important than the score itself

• Additional indicators are locally relevant• The rural livelihoods methodology allows us to collect

relatively complex information which can then be sorted according to different needs/audiences at a range of scales

Acknowledgements

We thank the regional facilitators who organised the workshops and all workshop participants from around the country who volunteered their time to assist with this project.

We also thank the other researchers involved in the project for providing information on climate projections for crops, pastures and livestock in each region.

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

CSIRO Ecosystem SciencesDr Peter BrownSenior Research ScientistPhone: 02 6242 1562Email: Peter.Brown@csiro.auWeb: www.cse.csiro.au

Tasmanian Institute of AgricultureDr Kerry BridleResearch FellowPhone: 03 6226 2837Email: Kerry.Bridle@utas.edu.auWeb: www.cse.csiro.au