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MONETARIST THEORY OF INFLATION
Prof. Prabha Panth,Osmania University,
Hyderabad
Prabha Panth 2
Milton Friedman’s Restatement of QTM
• According to Friedman, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
• “Money alone Matters”• When Money Supply increases in the economy,
there is excess supply of real cash balances with the public over the demand for money.
• This disturbs the equilibrium.• So the public will reduce their real cash
balances, by spending more on goods and services.
Prabha Panth 3
• If there is no increase in output, then extra D for goods > supply of goods.
• This leads to increase in prices.MS > kPY AD P
• MS = supply of money, and M/P = real cash balances, kPY = demand for real cash balances.
• AD = Aggregate demand.
Prabha Panth 4
• Keeping k constant, P = MS - Y
P MS Y• P/P = rate of inflation, MS/MS = rate of growth
of money supply, and Y/Y = rate of growth of output.
• Thus rate of inflation is determined by rate of growth of money supply minus rate of growth of output, k remaining constant.
• At full employment, there is no increase in growth of output, therefore, inflation is directly related to increase in supply of money.
Prabha Panth 5
Demand for money• DM is for real cash balances (M/P)• It is a function of 6 factors:
1. Rate of return on bonds, r , DM 2. Rate of return on equities (stock) , DM 3. Change in prices. P , DM 4. Physical K/Human K changes, DM changes5. Real income Y/P affects demand for real
cash balance M/P6. Tastes and preferences, economic and non-
economic conditions
Prabha Panth 6
Demand for cash balances:• Friedman includes Keynesian features
with Permanent Y hypothesis:DM/P = k(i. P)Y ----- (1)
• Friedman assumes that k is stable,• Elasticity of DM to i and P is small,• Based on US time series data,Supply of Cash Balances:• Is most important in determining the level
of income and prices.
Prabha Panth 7
• At equilibrium MS = MD -------- (2)• Assuming k is stable, MD = kPY ------- (3)• Since MS = MD, so MS = kPY• Or PY = MS/k, since k = 1/V, or• MV = PY or PT, (Fisher’s equation)
Prabha Panth 8
Criticism
• Not much difference between Fisher and Friedman.
• Starts with Keynes, ends with Fisher,• Full employment is assumed, as increase
in MS increases P, not Y• Completely ignored Fiscal Policy• Speculative DM is neglected.