1. MULTI-AGENT SYSTEM MODELING FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH Noordini Binti CheMan Urban Planning Group Supervisor : H.J.P. Timmermans

2. Outline

• Introduction

• Goal and Objectives

• Research Framework

• Preparation for the study

• Study Area

• Expected Finding

• Relevance of study

• Progress made in the first year

• Updated time plan

• Conclusion

3. Introduction : Motivation

• Interest in modeling urban system increasing

• Contribution of advance modeling approach new models to improve the understanding of urban development process

• Current development in Malaysia- economic region

• Integration of Multi-Agent System (MAS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) - Progress in modern GIS tools and technique

4. Goal and Objectives

• To analyze the complexity of regional and urban growth system, identify and evaluate of the current methods that available for modeling it.

• To develop and demonstrate the model of regional and urban growth pattern.

• To identify how economic factor can contribute growth using MAS modeling approach.

• To study on firm demography in the area as one of the contribution to economic growth.

• To study the application and integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-agent system (MAS) technologies.

5. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING

6. Understanding of urban and regional growth

• Urban growth = process of growth and decline of urban areas.

• Urban Land use model

Chronological Development of Urban Land Use models

7. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING

8. Mechanism AGENT Time Firm Size Lifecycle

9. Economic growth and firm demography

• Economic growth = changes or increment in the level of production of goods and services in the economy or a country over period of time.

• Economic growth reflected urban growth.

• Firm demography = interesting concept = lifecycle of a firm

• Firm demography gain popularity economic, regional science and transportation.

10. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING

11. Definition

• Multi-agent system (MAS)

• collection of interacting autonomous agent each with their own capabilities and goal

• Chen g, J. (2003). "Modeling Spatial & Temporal Urban Growth.", International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede Netherlands.

• Geographical Information System (GIS)

• GIS is widely used to facilitate in analyzing, modeling, manipulating, representation and displaying geo-referenced data in order to solve complex problems which relate to planning and management of resources

• NCGIA (1990). "NCGIA Core Curriculum in GIS." University of California, Santa Barbara.

12. Integration of MAS and GIS

• GIS + MAS = enhance capability of urban simulation technique

• Makes available a considerable amount of data and information produced and used by users who commonly employ GIS.

• Model builder to validate the dynamic models.

• improves the results of decision process cooperate between stakeholders and decision maker.

13. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING

14. Modeling as tools to understand growth pattern

• Modeling = help people communicate easier.

• Models = aid in decision making

• Model can mimic the complexity of urban growth system

Ladder for modeling Agents Policies Behaviors Processes Patterns Driving Forces Agents Actions Dynamics Outcome

15. Related Research

• A Shell for Simulated Agent Systems (SESAM) Schle, M., Herrler, R., and Klgl, F. (2004). "Coupling GIS and Multi-agent Simulation - Towards Infrastructure for Realistic Simulation." Multiagent System Technologies: Second German Conference, MATES 2004, Erfurt, Germany, September 29-30, 2004. Proceedings , J.G.Carbonell, and J.Siekmann, eds., Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 228-242.

• UrbanSim

• Waddell, P., and Ulfarsson, G. F. (2004). "Introduction to Urban Simulation: Design and Development of Operational Models." Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems , David A.Hensher, Kenneth J.Button, Kingsley E.Haynes, and Peter R.Stopher, eds.

• Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation(MASUS)

• Feitosa,F., Le, Q.B., and Vlek, P.L.G., (2009) Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation (MASUS) A tool to Explore Alternative for Promoting Inclusive Cities. 3rd ICA workshop on Geospatial Analysis and Modeling, University of Galve, August 6-7 2009.

16. METHODOLOGY

17. Study Area Klang Valley region

18. Mechanism

19. How?

• Prob ( ) = (firm character, locational character, accessibility, )

• • Content

• • General condition

• • Economic condition

20. Preparation of Data

• Data collection from targeted agency

• GIS database design and development

Data Type Availability Sources Land use (Year 1981,1998,1999,2002) Shapefile (GIS) Klang Valley Federal Territory (KVFT) Administrative Shapefile (GIS) KVFT Physical Shapefile (GIS) KVFT Transportation Shapefile (GIS) KVFT Building Shapefile (GIS) KVFT Demographic Excel Worksheet/Report KVFT/Statistic Department Firm Company Name, Address, Type of company, Date of start and end. Excel worksheet Company Commission of Malaysia (CCM) Firm - Size of company, Number of employee, Branches X

21.

• ArcGIS 9.x

• • Model builder

• • Geo-processing tools

• Agent Analyst

• • developed by Argonne National Laboratory

• • provides access to model building user interface through ArcGIS

• • FREE and open source

• VBA or C++ or Java

Software

22. Expected Finding

• Create growth model with help of GIS tools - help urban development actors to understand and make a clear decision.

• Create alternative plan for regional development.

• The model as foundation to understand the relationship between economic growth and dynamic land use patterns in the region.

23. Relevance of study

• Development of advanced modeling methods and techniques to analyze land use patterns and growth

• Implication for local planning

• GIS and MAS as a planning tool

• Contribute knowledge and findings from several research areas

24. Progress

• Literature study

• • Understanding of urban and regional growth

• • Economic growth and Firm demography

• • Multi-agent system approach

• • GIS Technology

• • Integration of MAS and GIS

• • Modeling as tools to understand growth patterns

• • Related Research

• Conference paper preparation

• Identify data requirement

• GIS database design - ongoing

25. Time-planning

26. Publication Plan

• Journal :

• Science Direct

• Environment and Planning

• International Journal of Geographical Information Science

• Journal of Geographical Systems

• International Journal of Urban and Regional Research

• Proceedings of International conferences organized by such societies as:

• GIS Development

• Geographic Information Science of International Geographical Union (IGU)

• Modeling Geographical Systems of IGU

• Regional Studies Association

27. Conclusion

• Urban growth modeling - contribute a better knowledge

• GIS and MAS is a necessary tool in analyzing spatial pattern

• Improve decision making process

28.

• Q & A