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Daniel Osgood of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society presented on index-based insurance projects that have reached farmers at scale at the workshop on Mobilizing a CGIAR Agricultural Insurance Community in Washington, DC, 20-22 January 2014, hosted by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Read more about CCAFS work on index-based weather insurance: http://bit.ly/Ll7Z7Z
Citation preview
Learning how to make insurance that is popular with smallholder farmers: Insights from some projects that scale Daniel Osgood Lead, Financial Instruments Sector Team Columbia University IRI
The Issue • Index insurance hoped to meaningfully reduce poverty at large scales
• Scaling, demand, impacts of many projects “disappoinDng”
• Some projects have elements that do not “disappoint”
• What can we learn from these projects?
• How can we build insurance that is popular with farmers? (has value to farmer, can scale, posiDve impacts)
What is insurance for? • Climate change: more bad years
• AdaptaDon: increase producDvity in normal years to cover bad year loss
• But strategies that increase producDvity in most years face increased risk in bad years
• Threat of 1 drought year out of 5 prevents other 4 from being much more producDve
• Key to adaptaDon is to relax risk of bad year to unlock producDvity opDons
• Insurance: help reduce risk to unlock producDvity
Why index insurance? • Insurance: reduce risk to unlock producDvity
• But problems with tradiDonal insurance have made it tough to implement
• Recent index innovaDon Insure weather index • eg: provide payout if there is drought • Cheap, “easy” to implement, good incenDves • Many limitaDons-‐-‐oVen doesn’t pay when farmer faces loss • Different families: Weather index, Area yield index
• SDll in early years
Why so tough? • Insurance too expensive if it doesn’t unlock opportunity or if displaces more effecDve tool
• What chances to take? • High yielding seed? TransplanDng? • Early season / Late season drought probability?
• Basis risk not simple: does insurance help reduce risk enough to take these opportuniDes?
• Must solve sophisDcated problems together to design and validate insurance
Why me (at IRI)? • InternaDonal Research InsDtute for Climate and Society • Enhance socieDes ability to understand and manage climate risk
• IRI worked since ‘early days’ of index insurance • Solid science base, working with farmers, partners, processes, capacity
building and training, policy
• Connect the experiences from many project partners • ArgenDna, Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Honduras,
Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Uruguay
• Experience with popular quickly scaling products • Tens of thousands of farmers individually chose to buy indexes
• Significant posiDve impacts
Partners around the world
12/7/12 1:11 AM1. ወደ አዲስ ቀበሌ መነሻ ጉብኝት — Index Insurance Sample Educational Exercises 2.0.0 documentation
Page 5 of 10file:///Users/raheldiro/projects/redumat/docs/_build/default/html/Amharic.html
በውይይቱ መጨረሻ ሁሉነም ጥያቄዎችና ያልተዳሰሱ ጉዳዮች ያዳርሱ። በመቀጠልም ቡድኑ በኢንዴክስ ዝግጅት ሂደቱ መስማማትአለመስማማታቸውን እጅ በማውጣት እንዲገልጹ ያድርጉ። በመጨረሻም ከላይ በተመለከተው መሰረት በመግለጫ 4: “የኢንዴክስመረጃ መሰብሰቢያ ቅጽ” ላይ መገልበጥ ያለባቸውን የጥያቄ መልሶች በቅጹ ላይ ይገልብጡ።
ተጨማሪተጨማሪ ሀሳብሀሳብ: ካካባቢው ህብረተሰብ ጋር አብሮ መስራት የሚያስችል ተጨማሪ ምክሮችና መመሪያዎችን ወደ አዲስ መንደር መነሻጉብኝትበሚከተሉት ክፍሎች ይመልከቱ፧ መግለጫመግለጫ ቁጥርቁጥር 5፡ካካባቢው ህብረተሰብ ጋር አብሮ በሚሰራበት ወቅት መደረግየሚገባቸውና መደረግ የሌለባቸው አምስት ዋና ዋና ነጥቦች። መግለጫመግለጫ ቁጥርቁጥር 6፡ዝርዝር ማጣሪያ: ወደ አዲስ መንደር መነሻ ጉብኝትከመደረጉ በፊት መዘጋጀት ያለባቸው ማስረጃዎች።
2. 2. መግለጫመግለጫ
2.1. 2.1. መግለጫመግለጫ 1 1፡፡ ከኢንዴክስከኢንዴክስ ዲዛይንዲዛይን ዝግጅትዝግጅት ቡድንቡድን አባላትአባላት ግለሰባዊግለሰባዊ መረጃመረጃመሰብስቢያመሰብስቢያ ጥያቄዎችጥያቄዎች
ከዚህ በታች የተዘረዘሩት ጥያቄዎች የቀበሌው አባላት በሀብት/ንብረት፣ በውሃ አጠቃቀም፧ በገቢ ምንጭ እንዲሁም ድርቅን በመቋቋምአቅም ምን ያህል እንድሚለያዩ ለማወቅ ይረዳሉ። ሀብት/ንብረት፣ የውሃ አጠቃቀም፧ የገቢ ምንጮች እንዲሁም ድርቅን የመቋቋምአቅም የአንድን ቤተሰብ የሰብል ዋስትና ፍላጎት እና የሰብል ዋስትና የመግዛት አቅም አመላካች ናቸው። አወያዩ ከኢንዴክስ ዲዛይንአባላት ጋር ውይይት ከማድረጉ በፊት የቀበሌውን አስተዳዳሪ በማነጋገር ስለመንደሩ መሰረታዊ የሆኑ መረጃዎችን መሰብሰብ ይችላል።ይህም ስንት አባውራ በቀበሌው አንደሚኖር፧ ቀበሌው የሚታረሰው መሬት ስፋት፧ በመስኖ የለማው መሬት ስፋት፧ ዋና ዋናሰብሎች፧ ቀበሌው የሚኖሩ የሴት እማውራዎች ቁጥር እና በድርቅ ምክንያት ስለሚክሰተው አደጋ የመሳሰሉትን ያጠቃልላል።
የዲዛይን አባላቱ ለውይይቱ በቦታው እንደደረሱ ከዚህ በታች የተዘረዘሩት መረጃዎች ከያንዳንዳቸው መሰብሰብ ይኖርበታል።
1. ሥም (በሚስጥር ይያዛል)፡ _______________________________________2. ፆታ፡ _______________________________________
ፆታዎ ሴት ከሆነ የሴት እማውራ ነዎት? _______________________________________
3. እድሜ፡ _______________________________________4. በቀበሌው የሚኖሩበት መንደር ሥም፡ _______________________________________5. በቤትዎ ስንት ሰው ይኖራል? _______________________________________6. በቤትዎ ከሚኖሩት ሰዎች ስንቱ ከቤት ውጪ ይሰራሉ? _______________________________________7. ምን ያህል የእርሻ መሬት አለዎት? _______________________________________8. የትኛዎቹን የሰብል አይነቶች ያመርታሉ? በየትኛው የምርት ወቅት ነው የሚያመርቱት?
_______________________________________
8.1 በዋናነት የሚያመርቱት የትኛውን የሰብል አይነት ነው?_______________________________________
8.2 ይህ የሰብል አይነት ባካባቢው በዋንኛነት ለምግብ የሚውል ሰብል ነው?
CHAPITRE 3
Qu’est-ce que l’assurance basée sur un
indice météorologique ?
3.1 Thème : Qu’est-ce que l’assurance basée sur un indice météoro-
logique ?
3.1.1 Objectif
Cette partie du document présentera au lecteur le concept de l’assurance basée sur un indice météorologique (l’assu-
rance indicielle), comment cette assurance se distingue des autres produits d’assurance traditionnelle pour les cultures,
et décrire comment l’assurance indicielle peut s’adapter à la gestion générale du fermier au risque.
3.1.2 Introduction : Qu’est-ce que l’assurance ?
L’assurance est un arrangement financier qui a l’intention de protéger les assurés du risque. Ce risque peut être n’im-
porte quel risque : ce qui inclut la mort, les accidents de la route, ou même les pertes de récolte. L’assurance n’est ni
un cadeau ni une subvention, mais un moyen par lequel une personne paie de petites quantités pendant les bonnes an-
nées et elle reçoit un montant compensatoire pendant les mauvaises années. Néanmoins, on payera toujours plus pour
l’assurance qu’on recevra avec les montants compensatoires parce que la compagnie d’assurance gagne une profite
pour protéger du risque.
Pour obtenir l’assurance, on est obligé de s’accorder et signer un contrat avec une compagnie d’assurance. Une prime
d’assurance est un paiement fixe d’avance à la compagnie d’assurance, et pour une prime d’assurance, une compagnie
fournit une indemnité garantie si les conditions spécifiées du contrat (relatif aux pertes) se passent. Mais, dans les cas
où un mauvais événement se passe qui n’est pas couvert par l’assurance, l’assuré n’est pas indemnisé. En plus, s’il
y a des pertes mais la perte n’est pas autant spécifiée dans le contrat, l’assuré n’est pas indemnisé. Un bénéfice de
l’assurance est qu’il y a des conditions prédéterminées qui dictent le montant compensatoire qu’on recevra.
3.1.3 L’assurance traditionnelle comparée à l’assurance indicielle ?
L’assurance indicielle est un outil relativement nouveau qui peut aider les fermiers à gérer le risque. L’assurance in-
dicielle débourse sur un indice, comme la quantité de pluie qui tombe pendant une saison, qui est mesurée par une
station météorologique locale ou télé-détectée par des satellites, comparé à l’assurance traditionnelle qui débourse sur
une conséquence de la météo, comme la récolte pour un fermier. Cette distinction subtile résout plusieurs problèmes
5
CHAPTER
THREE
APA ITU ASURANSI INDEKS IKLIM?3.1 Topik: Apa itu Asuransi Indeks Iklim?3.1.1 TujuanTujuan dari bab ini adalah untuk memperkenalkan pembaca dengan konsep Asuransi Indeks Iklim, bagaimana asuransi
indeks iklim berbeda dari produk asuransi tanaman tradisional, dan untuk menggambarkan bagaimana asuransi indeks
iklim mungkin cocok untuk pengelolaan risiko petani secara keseluruhan.3.1.2 Pendahuluan: Apa itu Asuransi?Asuransi adalah pengaturan keuangan yang dimaksudkan untuk memberikan perlindungan dari risiko. Risiko ini dapat
disebabkan oleh berbagai hal, termasuk kematian, kecelakaan mobil, atau bahkan untuk kerugian tanaman. Asuransi
bukanlah hadiah atau subsidi, tetapi cara di mana seseorang dapat membayar sejumlah kecil di tahun yang baik dan
menerima perlindungan dalam tahun yang buruk. Namun, dari waktu ke waktu jumlah yang dibayarkan SELALU akan
lebih dari jumlah yang diterima untuk membayar keuntungan dari perusahaan asuransi yang memegang resiko untuk
Kita. Untuk mendapatkan asuransi, kita harus menyetujui dan menandatangani kontrak dengan perusahaan asuransi.
Dalam pertukaran untuk pembayaran, yang dilakukan di awal disebut “premium”, perusahaan asuransi memberikan
kompensasi jika ketentuan kontrak tertentu (biasanya berhubungan dengan kerugian) terjadi. Namun, jika sesuatu
yang buruk terjadi yang tidak tercakup dalam kontrak, pembeli tidak diberi uang. Selain itu, jika disepakati kerugian
tidak terjadi, Kita tidak akan mendapatkan premi Kita kembali. Salah satu manfaat dari pembelian asuransi adalah
bahwa ada istilah kesepakatan awal yang menentukan jumlah kompensasi yang Kita terima.3.1.3 Asuransi Tradisional dibandingkan dengan Asuransi IndeksAsuransi indeks adalah alat yang relatif baru yang dapat digunakan petani untuk membantu mengelola risiko. Itu diba-
yarkan berdasarkan indeks, seperti curah hujan, diukur pada stasiun cuaca lokal atau melalui satelit, bukan berdasarkan
konsekuensi dari cuaca, seperti hasil panen petani. Perbedaan yang cerdik membuat asuransi indeks mampu menye-
lesaikan sejumlah masalah mendasar yang membuat asuransi tradisional tidak bisa dijalankan di wilayah pedesaan di
negara-negara berkembang. Tidak seperti asuransi tanaman tradisional, perusahaan asuransi tidak perlu mengunjungi
lapangan petani untuk menentukan premi atau menilai kerusakan, jika jumlah curah hujan di bawah ambang batas
yang telah ditetapkan sebelumnya, maka asuransi akan membayar. Karena pembayaran tersebut tidak terkait dengan
kelangsungan hidup tanaman atau gagal, petani selalu memiliki insentif untuk membuat keputusan terbaik untuk ke-
langsungan hidup tanaman. Inovasi ini secara signifikan menurunkan biaya transaksi dan resiko perusahaan asuransi ,
mengurangi premi asuransi dan meningkatkan aksesibilitas.
7
CAPÍTULO 2
Riesgo climático y oportunidades
2.1 Tema: Riesgo climático y oportunidades
2.1.1 Objetivo
Los siguientes ejercicios tienen como propósito guiar al usuario a través de una serie de ejemplos basados en com-
paraciones costo-benefico que ilustran los tipos de alternativas a las que un agricultor se puede enfrentar al tomar
decisiones con respecto a la gestión de los riesgos climáticos. El ejercicio también provee una idea general de algunos
de los principios básicos de la gestión de riesgos climáticos y de seguros en base a índices. Los siguientes capítulos
elaborarán los conceptos aquí introducidos. Para el propósito de este documento suponemos que en cada año hay
solamente una temporada agrícola.
2.1.2 Introducción
La productividad agrícola en los países en desarrollo se ve limitada por riesgos de tipo climático, los cuales hacen
que los agricultores no utilicen fertilizantes o semillas de alta calidad. Eventos climáticos adversos como sequías o
inundaciones a menudo provocan inseguridad alimentaria, endeudan a los agricultores y destruyen activos productivos,
como por ejemplo animales. Estos fenómenos son capaces de empujar a la gente hacia una situación de pobreza
persistente. Pero incluso en años relativamente “buenos”, la amenaza de la variabilidad climática hace que la gente y
las instituciones no hagan inversiones o soliciten préstamos, que podrían ayudar a aumentar la productividad. Esto se
debe a que un evento climático adverso, como un periodo de sequía, podría inutilizar totalmente una inversión. Como
consecuencia, es frecuente que los agricultores no pueden aprovechar todos los beneficios de los años buenos.
En el sentido más básico, las acciones en gestión de riesgo climático son aquellas que intentan reducir los impactos
del clima y de los eventos climáticos extremos en las vidas y los medios de vida. Por ejemplo, los seguros pueden
ayudar a mejorar la productividad de los agricultores en los años normales, protegiéndolos de los riesgos de los años
peores, proveyendo así una base para el crecimiento económico. Los seguros en base a índices son una herramienta
relativamente nueva que los agricultores pueden utilizar para una mejor gestión de riesgo. A diferencia de los seguros
de cultivo tradicionales, los cuales pagan en base a las consecuencias de las condiciones climáticas, como la caída en
el rendimiento de un cultivo, los seguros en base a índices pagan en base a un índice, tal como la cantidad de lluvia,
que puede ser medida en estaciones meteorológicas locales o por medio de satélite. Los seguros en base a índices
pueden ser integrados en un conjunto más amplio de herramientas de gestión de riesgos climáticos y en instrumentos
de desarrollo diseñados específicamente como un paquete de medidas para disminuir la vulnerabilidad a los riesgos de
tipo climático de los agricultores, mejorando los medios de vida y las vidas de las personas.
3
CHAPTER
THREE
CLIMATE RISK AND OPPORTUNITIES3.1 Topic: Climate Risk and Opportunities3.1.1 Objective
The following exercise is intended to guide the user through a series of trade offs that illustrate the types of choices thata farmer may be faced with when making decisions regarding weather risk management. The exercise also providesa general overview of some of the basic principles of climate risk management and index insurance. The followingchapters will elaborate on the concepts introduced here.
3.1.2 IntroductionAgricultural productivity in developing countries is blocked by weather related risks that prevent farmers from usingfertilizer and high quality seeds. Climate shocks like droughts and floods often lead to food insecurity, debt andthe destruction of productive assets, such as plow animals, which can push people into persistent poverty. But evenin relatively “good” years, the threat of climate shocks makes people and institutions unable or unwilling to makeinvestments or to take out loans that could help to increase productivity, because a climate shock, such as a drought,could render their investments worthless. As a result, farmers are often unable to reap the full benefits of good years.In the most basic sense, climate risk management efforts are those that try to reduce the impacts that weather andclimate extremes can have on lives and livelihoods. For example, insurance can help enhance productivity for farmersin normal years by protecting them from the risks of the worst years, providing a foundation for economic growth.Index insurance is a relatively new tool that farmers can use to help manage risk. Unlike traditional crop insurance,which pays out based on consequences of weather, such as farmer’s crop yields, index insurance pays out based onan index, such as rainfall, which can be measured at a local weather station or by satellite. Index insurance can beintegrated into a broader set of climate risk management and development tools specifically designed as a package todecrease farmers’ vulnerability to weather-related risks, improving lives and livelihoods.
3.2 Checkpoint: Climate Risk and OpportunitiesQuestions
1. You are a farmer and you decide to take out a loan to buy high quality seeds. At the end of the season youhave to repay your loan with interest, which amounts to a payment of 120 units of money. In a normal year youmake 300 units of money with high quality seeds. In a bad year you make 60 units of money when you use highquality seeds. When you use normal seeds instead of high quality seeds you make less money in both normaland bad years.(a) This growing season turns out to be normal. Will you be able to repay your loan at the end of the season?
5
Connecting experiences in indexes
That farmers choose
Projects we look at today • Na#onal Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) – India
• Mongolia Index Based Livestock Insurance (MIBLI) – Mongolia
• Kilimo Salama – Kenya and Rwanda (IRI is partner)
• Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) – Kenya and Ethiopia: a satellite driven program with asset insurance
• R4 Rural Resilience Ini#a#ve – Ethiopia and Senegal: a farmer led, unsubsidized integrated risk management project, with labor for insurance and satellite rainfall features (IRI is partner)
My apologies if I get project facts wrong (or show bias)
India Aield crops
CCAFS (websearch)
India Aield crops Na#onal Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) – India Others in the room know much more than I about this project • HUGE: 9 million weather, 22 million area yield • IniDal BASIX w-‐index ~2004ish, first index ahempt
• Unsubsidized, unbundled-‐-‐grew to 10,000, • “disappoinDng” -‐-‐low take up, min purchase opDon, low re-‐enrollment (?)
• Strategies for scale: compulsory, subsidized • Required to get subsidized government loan, Subsidized premium
• Is this the scale model to follow (or scale for the sake of scale)? • Subsidized, mandatory standard for most “unsuccessful” projects • How are we we confident farmers want index, targets needs, models not wrong? • Rely on economic study evidence (iniDal evidence of shiVing to improved inputs)
• Need addiDonal innovaDons, broader mix of demonstraDons
Mongolia Livestock
Mark Rosenwald, CSP2
Mongolia Livestock Mongolia Index Based Livestock Insurance (MIBLI) Others know much more than I about this project • Area yield livestock—use aggregate livestock data for payouts • Directly insures producDve assets (not only outputs) • Government, WB reinsurance for huge loss (subsidy in tail?) • Linked to risk mgmt, preparedness, early warning systems
• Long project, constantly growing (cumulaDve totals) • 2006: 2,400, 2008: 4,000, 2009: 14,000, 2013: 10% of herders
• Requires good surveys of livestock everywhere every year
What if surveys not available/too expensive?
Livestock, Kenya and Ethiopia
livestockinsurance.files.wordpress.com
Livestock, Kenya and Ethiopia Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) Others in room know much more than I about this project • Research MoDvated, research built • Targets poverty trap directly: insurance for producDve assets • Designed using research project data, analyses
• Satellite index instead of area yield from survey staDsDcs • Subsidized risk premium • Since 2010 ~4,400 total households purchased • Extremely hard to reach clients
• Impacts: insured weather drought significantly beher
Kilimo Salama, East Africa
audiencescapes.org
Kilimo Salama, East Africa Syngenta Founda#on. Kenya, Rwanda + others IRI perspecDve (we are a project partner) • Weather index for rain-‐fed crops, started ~2009 • Biggest, fastest growing, unsubsidized project I know of • 2009: 200, 2012: 100,000 (in 2012 alone)
• MulDple packages, efficient distribuDon channels • Unbundled, loan bundled, seed bundled, seed company members • Some phone sales/payments, some satellite, some raingauge
• IniDal evidence of farmer increasing profit via insurance
• Not subsidy—build on relaDonships, packages to improve produc#on
R4/HARITA Ethiopia/Senegal IRI perspecDve (we are a project partner) • R4 builds on HARITA, in Ethiopia Integrated risk management framework developed by Oxfam
America, the Relief Society of Tigray (REST), together with Ethiopian farmers and several other naDonal and global partners, scaling to Senegal
• R4: risk reducDon, risk transfer (insurance), prudent risk taking (microcredit), and risk reserves (savings)
• Ethiopia sales and scaling • 2009: 200 farms,~20,000 Individual farms individually chose to buy in 2013 alone • Unsubsidized premium, nonloan bundled, nonmanditory • Work for insurance or insurance for cash
• High demand (take-‐up exceeds project capacity) • Min purchase possible: ~$3 Ave package chosen: ~$19, Average cash only: ~$9 • Farmers overwhelmingly chose to pay more money for more frequent payouts
• Satellite rainfall esDmate triggers payouts
• Extremely parDcipatory farmer design, validaDon, sales process-‐each village leads their design through formal quanDtaDve parDcipatory process
• Preliminary analysis suggests meaningful improvements in producDve assets from insurance
Quantitative farmer design
Games to Aind production opportunities (Senegal)
Lessons from examples • Design insurance for a purpose
• Target Development/AdaptaDon challenge, Build insurance to unlock producDon opportuniDes
• Target appropriate groups/levels, leveraging other risk mgmt
• Make insurance final piece of careful package
• People who benefit from insurance should • Guide design, understand its strengths and weaknesses quanDtaDvely • Can have/build package appropriate for their opportuniDes/risks
• Build • On strong relaDonships, solid science, strong distribuDon methods, validaDon and improvement,
transparent, understandable products • Start slowly and carefully to scale quickly on solid foundaDon
• Basis risk is central, but unless carefully thought out can lead along wrong path: • Farmer, science based approaches to basis risk minimizaDon • Reduce right risk: what cant be targeted through other approaches that blocks opportuniDes • We want farmers to be able to save crops in drought using an index payout
Thank you