CURRENT AFFAIRS

IntroductionIt is a non-partisan think tank established with a vision to Innovate future prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond through intellectual discourse and contribute in sustainable social, political and economic development. It is an aim to review the foreign policy of Pakistan towards its partner states and the major powers of the World. ‘Pakistan India Relations – Challenges & Prospects’ is the sixth roundtable of the series; the first was on ‘Pakistan-U.S. Relations: Convergences and Divergences’ held in November last year, the second was on ‘Pakistan-Russia Relations: Prospects and Challenges’, held in December 2013, the third was on ‘Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations – U.S. Drawdown and its Implications for Pakistan’, held in January 2014, the fourth was on ‘Pakistan – China Relations: Prospects and Challenges’, held in February 2014, the fifth was on ‘Pakistan-EU Relations: Convergence and Divergence’, also held in February 2014.

History ConflictsPakistan and India have shared a long history of conflict. The two countries have witnessed more ups and downs in their relationship, in a relatively short span of almost seven decades, than most countries do in hundreds of years. The relationship between the two South Asian neighbours can to some extent be explained by the subaltern realist theory. According to the theory of subaltern realism, the third world states are weak and dependent, due to which their ability to focus on their long-term benefits is less that on the developed countries. As the third world countries which were established after colonialism came to an end in the subcontinent, Pakistan and India have always been dependent on bigger powers as far as their security and survival are concerned. The third world countries seek survival and are constantly in competition. Therefore, internal and external factors both act as catalysts in influencing the behaviour and decisions of these states.

Page 1

CURRENT AFFAIRS

According to the realist school of thought, the international structure of the world is inherently anarchical. There is no hierarchy of power. This anarchy in the international system forces these countries to be in constant competition with each other. They all seek survival and security. However, in order to understand and analyze the relationship between the two South Asian giants, one has to carefully look at their relationship through the prism of three levels of analysis, i.e., systematic level, regional level and the domestic level. At the systematic level, Pakistan and India have faced conflict of interests at the geo-strategic and geo-political levels. Whether it was the conflict of disputed territories between the two or of being a part of different alliances, these two countries have always found themselves to be on the opposite sides. Pakistan and India have historically suffered from a security dilemma regarding each other’s military strength. That can be related to the alliance-formation of these states in time of need due to their dependence on developed countries. For example, Pakistan allied with the U.S. during and after the Cold War; while India, despite declaring itself as part of the Non-Aligned Movement, was being assisted by the former Soviet Union, especially in the military sector. On the regional level, the relations between Pakistan and India directly have an impact on regional security and stability; this relationship is considered to be one of the most important ones in the world. The world views the relationship between the two countries of a highly volatile nature, mainly because of the traumatic ideological and political history shared by the two. This shared history between Pakistan and India comes with a baggage. The legacy of unjust partition resulted in territorial disputes and constant state of insecurity and tension on borders. The conflicts between the two countries have weighed down on the future of the two countries. Both states’ inability to solve these conflicts has raised much concern, not only within these two countries but in the world as well.

Page 2

CURRENT AFFAIRS

One of the most important points of concern between the two countries is Kashmir. Kashmir has been and still is a constant source of tension and a potential recipe of disaster between the two countries. That is why many have termed it as a “nuclear flashpoint”; just waiting to go off. Since the inception of the two countries, there has been a huge third party interference. At times, this interference was for the sake of maintaining peace and stability in the region, while at the others it was not. Whereas some of the observers in both countries have referred to this third party interference as meddling, while others see it as a way of moving the dialogue process forward. These international actors like the United States have time and again helped propel the dialogue process forward and repeatedly urged the two countries to reach a point of detente in their relations. It should be noted that over the last decade or so, this third party interference has decreased considerably. Much of it has to do with the two countries’ resolve to solve the underlying disputes and also because of the changing geo-strategic conditions of not only the region but the world at large. These geo-political and geo-strategic circumstances involve the decline of the stature and power of the United States as the sole-super power in the world as well as the rise of multi-polarity. Moreover, it should be noted that India has always considered itself to be the regional hegemon of South Asia, whereas Pakistan has always refused to accept India’s hegemony. This defiance of Pakistan and its refusal to yield to India’s hegemony in the region and its demand to be treated on the same level globally has never been accepted by the Indian establishment and policy-makers. Hence, that has led to regional disterbance and tensions. The third is the domestic level. Domestic politics have deeply impacted relations between the two countries. Domestically, the ultra-right and the hard-line factions in both countries have maintained a constant pressure on the governments of both sides and on occasion have forced the countries to behave or adopt a certain policy which the governments in ordinary

Page 3

CURRENT AFFAIRS

circumstances might not have taken. This appeasement to the right wing has been witnessed numerous times and has more times than not resulted in stagnation of the peace and dialogue process. In recent times, the 2002-2003 stand-off between Pakistan and India and the Mumbai attacks of 2008 bear witness to this fact. These tensions not only put a stop to the on-going peace process between the two countries but also held off any advances that might have accrued if the talks had continued. It would not be wrong to assume, perhaps, that the reason that Pakistan and India have not been able to achieve a breakthrough on a single core issue has been because of the internal domestic pressures. Ideological polarization can be considered as one of the factors which have impacted, rather severely, relations of the two countries. Pakistan and India are neighbouring countries whose future is entwined and dependent upon each other. It is up to the two countries to find a way that leads to peace and prosperity of not only the two countries but also of the region.

India-Pakistan diplomatic relationsPakistan’s Track II diplomacy with India has failed to achieve a peaceful solution for core disputes like Kashmir, Sir Creek and Siachen because, for the resolution of these disputes, the two parties have never been on the same page. All political parties in Pakistan believe in the continuation of dialogue and peace process with India. India alone has influenced Pakistan’s decision making more than any other country in the world. Pakistan has viewed and formed its foreign policy with other countries in order to countervail India. All of its policies like the defence policy and the nuclear policy are linked to India. India was a factor even in the initiation of Pakistans’ friendship with China.

Page 4

CURRENT AFFAIRS

Modi Govt Polices about India-Pak RelationsOn the topic of Indian elections – based on the analysis and popularity poll - it was speculated that it is likely that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will form the next government in India. It was agreed that even if Narendra Modi comes to power, the relations between India and Pakistan will not worsen. In fact, it may pave the way to new doors of economic prosperity to open between the two countries. If Narendra Modi is able to accumulate power at the centre, he will be able to take a firm stance in his foreign policy decisions vis-a-vis Pakistan. Inside Pakistan, there needs to be a realisation of the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a mainstream political party, whereas the Rashtriya Sevak Sangh, to which Modi belongs, is a fascist, militant organisation. Pakistan should not be in any haste to conceive any prior notions regarding the Indian elections, but should wait to view the policies of the new government before forming its new policy.

Nuclear PolicyIndia initiated its nuclear weapon programme in the South Asian region early on in 1958, whereas Pakistan began its nuclear pursuit in 1972. Pakistan and India both declared themselves nuclear weapons states in 1998. These nuclear tests helped Pakistan restore strategic balance in the region. These nuclear tests also helped in the achievement of deterrence in the region, which worked, somehow, during the Kargil conflict as well as the 2002-2003 military stand-off. To enhance confidence between the two countries, Pakistan and India released a joint statement on the issue of nuclear Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) in 2004. The process of nuclear CBMs between the two countries is not new. This process was in place before the nuclear tests of 1998. Similar confidence-building agreements were signed in 1999, 2004 and 2012. The following challenges to the deterrence stability posed by India were mentioned:

Page 5

CURRENT AFFAIRS

i) India’s cold start doctrine of 2004 which aims at exploiting the perceived gap below Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.

ii) Differentiated nuclear learning, doctrinal mismatch between the two countries.

iii) The anti-ballistic missile system, India’s defence research and development organisation as well as the growing conventional asymmetry between Pakistan and India.

iv) Whereas India’s defence allocation budget is around 38.5 billion dollars, Pakistan’s defence budget allocation is just around six billion dollars.

There has been a difference of approach on Pakistan and India’s part on the concept of maintaining strategic stability in South Asia. Pakistan’s approach on this issue has been to promote over-arching concept of encompassing nuclear restraint and conventional balance. India’s approach, on the other hand, has been to explore new areas to introduce restrains on the use of nuclear weapons and looking to reverse the lowering of nuclear threshold based on seeking official communication on nuclear doctrines and taking a morally high position on global nuclear disarmament.

Kashmir Conflict The people of Kashmir do not have high expectations with regard to the upcoming elections in India and Kashmir. They believe there will be no change in India’s policies. The dispute of Kashmir will continue to pose a threat to the stability of South Asia if it remains unresolved. The policy-makers in Pakistan should take Article 257 of the Constitution of Pakistan as the guiding principle, as far as the policy on Kashmir is concerned. A development in the form of a local Kashmiri narrative on the dispute of Kashmir has been observed in the

Page 6

CURRENT AFFAIRS

past three or four years. A rapid increase in the number of local Kashmiri youth involved in the dispute of Kashmir has been seen since 2008. These highly educated youth have been able to bring the dispute of Kashmir to the forefront in the world media. A soft image of Kashmir needs to be developed. Pakistan can help in this regard if credible people of the country lend support to the dispute of Kashmir.

Water PolicyIn order to avoid any future conflicts over the dispute of Kashmir, Pakistan and India need to maintain their agreements and comply with the rulings of the International Court of Justice and the International Laws of Seas.

Major Points of India-Pak1. Pakistan, while adhering to its traditional stance over the dispute of Kashmir, should continue its demand for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute under the UN resolution. There is a need to convince India to achieve an early resolution of Kashmir through political and diplomatic means which is acceptable to all stake-holders. 2. Pakistan and India should both reduce the heavy baggage of conflict and territorial disputes by enhancing bilateral cooperation in all possible fields. 3. Bilateral trade between the two countries can prove to be an effective tool in order to increase mutual dependency for sustainable and stable bilateral relations. 4. Pakistan and India can work together to achieve economic benefits from the Central Asian markets as well. By utilizing Pakistan’s strategic location and India’s influence in that region, both countries will be able to achieve economic prosperity.

Page 7

CURRENT AFFAIRS

5. The resolution of core disputes like Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek will not only strengthen peace between the two countries but will also help reduce the existing level of distrust. 6. India should respect human rights inside Kashmir, and Pakistan needs to effectively highlight the cruel laws currently being enforced in the Indian-Occupied Kashmir. Indian policies in the region need to change. 7. The two countries can work together and build a road-map based on non-kinetic means to combat extremism. 8. The best guarantee to establish peace between Pakistan and India is if both countries invest in joint infrastructural projects in the energy and other sectors. This way, both will have a stake in the other’s stability and would further propel them to adopt a peaceful posture in their policies regarding each other. 9. There is a dire need to establish nuclear transparency in order to establish trust between the two countries. 10. All stake-holders in Pakistan need to be on the same page as far as relations and the peace process with India is concerned. 11. Pakistan needs to internally educate and prepare its nation on core disputes with India.12. There is a need to establish conflict-resolution mechanisms against any future destabilizing incident. 13. A structured coherent and consistent dialogue should explore the fields of cooperation at the bilateral and regional levels. 14. Frequent bilateral visits of parliamentarians from both sides can be a good way to improve bilateral relations. The positive role of peace lobbies and the media can help strengthen these relations. 15. In order to avoid future conflicts on the issue of water, justified distribution of water under all agreed points between Pakistan and India with compliance to the International Court

Page 8

CURRENT AFFAIRS

of Justice and International law of Seas is required between the two countries. 16. There is a need to establish demilitarization zones between the two countries. Moreover, a bilateral agreement on non-deployment of the anti-ballistic missiles is also required. 17. Pakistan needs to utilize the opportunities that will emerge out of the changing regional scenario as the United States is drawing down its military presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to overview its policy options as it is pertinent that the country uses these opportunities to its best advantage.

ConclusionPakistan’s relationship with India is one of the most significant relationships in the world. This relationship has been topsy-turvy since the creation of both the countries. No other country in the world has influenced Pakistan’s internal and external policies more than India. There is a dire need for both countries to engage in dialogue and discussion with each other if they want to attain peace and prosperity in the region. Even after more than six and a half decades, Kashmir continues to remain the core dispute between the two countries. Pakistan and India need to maintain transparency in their policies with each other in order to bridge the gap of distrust and hostility and to maintain regional peace and trust-worthy bilateral relations. There is a need to hold constant dialogue and debate on the basis of equality between the two countries to not only maintain regional stability, but also for peace and prosperity of both the countries.

Page 9