Food security and conflict

Partnering for ImpactIFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security

November 25, 2013. The Thon Hotel EU, Rue de la Loi 75, Brussels, BelgiumFinancial support for this research is provided by the CGIAR-PIM, EU, GIZ, and IFAD

Presenters: Clemens Breisinger and Jean-Francois Maystadt

Food insecurity is a consequence of conflictThe economic and social costs of conflict are high

More than 1.5 billion people live in fragile and conflict-affected countries and many of them are poor/food insecure (World Bank 2011)

For each year of conflict, economic growth may fall by 2.3 percent and that it may take a total of 17 years before the country catches up with its preconflict position (Collier, 2007)

Conflict has a severe impacts on human health, education, and nutrition (Chamarbagwala and Moran, 2011; Akresh and de Walque, 2008; Shemyakina, 2011)

Example: conflict in Yemen, 2011 $US 5-11 bill. are needed for supporting

post-conflict transition IFPRI with support of EU analyzed conflict

impacts and scenarios for transition Strong association between food insecurity

and conflict in Yemen The conflict led to an estimated 12 percentage

point increase in food insecurity

2010

2015

2020

25

30

35

40

Slow transitionAccelerated transi-tionStagnation

Transition scenarios: Prevalence of calorie deficiency (%)

Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/managing-transition-yemen -

Food insecurity is also a cause of conflict Particularly in food import dependent countries with a large share of net

food consumers, such as the Arab world, are highly vulnerable

Well known causes of conflict are: poverty, underemployment; inequalities and poor governance (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Fearon, 2010, Macours, 2011)

Food insecurity (Brinkman and Hendrix, 2011; Pinstrup-Andersen and Shimokowa, 2008; Arezki and Brückner, 2011, Bellemare 2011, Berazneva and Lee 2013)

Food insecurity at national and household levels are the key cause of conflict in the Arab world (Maystadt et al. 2012;)

Source: Maystadt et al. 2012: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/does-food-security-matter-transition-arab-countries

Improving food security can reduce the risk of conflict

Example:

EC-IFPRI collaboration on National Food Security Strategy for Yemen

6

1. Leverage the petroleum subsidy reform to promote food security through direct transfers and investments

2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in promising sectors

3. Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural development4. Improve risk management and enforce competition among cereal importers and

consider physical grain storage for emergencies5. Implement the water sector strategy decisively6. Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service

provision, especially in rural areas7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition,

women’s empowerment and qat

7-Point Action Plan for Yemen

Source: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/does-food-security-matter-transition-arab-countries

Food insecurity and conflict in SomaliaVicious cycle of violence?

Source: DFID(2012).Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012).

Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009 Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011

Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).

What is the role of droughts for conflict?Vicious cycle in Somalia

“with the frequency of droughts increasing over the last decade, it’s become increasingly difficult for people to recover from one shock before one strikes. Such shocks drive conflict over land and water, disrupt economic activity and

leave young people vulnerable to unemployment and recruitment into extremist groups, like Al-Shabaab”, Paul Weisenfeld (USAID)

“This [the drought] has been a boon for Al-Shabab’s recruitment campaign because when you don’t have purchasing power to buy the food, you will be encouraged to be recruited because then you will be saved, and you can use

that salary or you could be given food”,Bruno Geddo (UNHCR Somalia Representative)

Drought and Violence in SomaliaQuotes from practitioners

Theoretical frameworkDrought => Livestock Prices fall => Poverty => Conflict?

Source: Maystadt, Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R AJAE).

• Drought likely to translate into sharp decrease in livestock prices:• Prices, largely supply driven (with the exception of major demand

shocks outside of Somalia)• Oversupply of thin animals, due to drought-related reduction in

water and livestock feeding resources• Liquidating process to smooth consumption over time follows a

particular order : from more to less liquid assets (small to less liquid livestocks)

• Selling productive assets, particularly livestock, is often the only remaining – but largely inefficient – strategy to smoothen consumption

• Downward price movement amplified by information asymmetry in favor of intermediary traders

Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).

Regression analysis confirms:

Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia• Method : FE 2SLS with corrected standard errors (Conley 1999)• Intuition : Estimate the drought-price-conflict using monthly variations

within each region between 1997 and 2009

• Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia (71% due to one SD)• Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock

sector and resulting income changes

Source: Maystadt, , Ecker and Mabiso (2013) Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper (R&R in AJAE).

Droughts are a security threat for the future

Method: Predicted changes in conflict by 2030, based on IPCC climate models (20 models*3 scenarios) and estimated responses to drought

Climate change adaptation and food security strategies contribute to conflict prevention

Building resilience through establishing effective coping mechanisms and generating and diversifying income earning opportunities is critical for both conflict prevention and climate change adaptation.

Investment in pastoralist activities: Improved livestock resilience to drought: adoption of drought-

resistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain

Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes

Support income diversification: Irrigation, Migration and Education

Enhancing resilience through a balanced food security and development strategy

Source: Headey, L. You, and A.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development

Planning food security interventions for improved resilience

Towards an innovative M&E mapping approach

IFAD projects and conflictIFAD operates in several heavily conflict affected areas

IFAD projects and climate variabilityClimate variability is high at many IFAD project sites

IFAD projects and child malnutritionIFAD operates in many governorates that show high levels of

child malnutrition

Take a closer look at your project sitesExample IFAD Egypt

Key messagesFood insecurity is both a consequence and a cause for

conflict – thus improving food security can reduce the risk of conflict

Droughts increase the risk of local civil conflict. Hence, climate change adaptation measures are critical for preventing conflicts

Innovative mapping tools can help governments and development agencies to plan, monitor and evaluate their food security projects for enhanced resilience