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Dr. Peter Shea Does Online Learning Inhibit or Support Community College Student Success? Using a nationally representative sample (The Beginning Postsecondary Student Survey, BPS 04/09), this study examined the associations between enrollment in credit-bearing distance education courses and degree attainment. We sought to determine whether US students enrolled in online/distance education courses during their first year of study at a community college tend to complete a degree (certificate, associate, or bachelor’s) at significantly lower rates than those who were not enrolled in such courses or programs. Unlike previous researchers, our findings indicated that students who take some of their early courses online or at a distance have a significantly better chance of attaining a community college credential than do their classroom-only counterparts. Implications for policy, practice, and theory related to student attrition, persistence, and success will be discussed. presentation at the 15th annual SLN SOLsummit 2014 February 26, 2014 http://slnsolsummit2014.edublogs.org
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A National Study of Online Community College Students
Does Online Learning Help Community College
Students Attain a Degree?
Dr. Peter Shea, Senior Researcher, SLNUniversity at Albany, SUNYDr. Temi BidjeranoFurman University
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On OJS
Biggest Problem in Higher Education?
What is it?
Biggest Problem in Higher Education
What is it? “Avoidable” drop out?
Overview
What is “access”? “Full” benefits of higher education Role of OLL in improving access to
benefits Previous theoretical and empirical work New national study
› Question, methods, results, discussion
What is access?
How do we measure access to HE? Access to what? What is the role of flexibility and
convenience of online learning? Has online learning improved access?
How do we know? Not as obvious as you might think…
Benefits of Access to Higher Education
Attaining the benefits
Many (not all) of these benefits are contingent on completing a degree, not simply going to college…
Background
Background
US not producing sufficient numbers of college graduates
Losing competitive advantage in the global economy (Hebel, 2006; Kelderman, 2013)
Community Colleges:› Six year national completion rates less than
20% › Justifiably or not, community colleges are
target of criticism› But community colleges crucial to supporting
US economy (College Board, 2008).
Financial Issues
Spending on community college students has poor return on degree attainment
Delta project (Kirshtein & Wellman, 2012) › “…half of instructional spending in
community colleges goes to students (and credits) that do not attach to a degree or certificate” (p. 16)
› Raises questions about efforts to increase access to community college students
› Is it expensive and inefficient relative to benefits?
Increasing access
Online Learning
Dramatic growth: 5.5-7M+ online enrollments in US
Most of them community college students but…
Does online learning merely increase the pool of a costly population of higher education learners who do not complete?
Crazy, right? Strong evidence that this may be the case…
But first, what theories inform research on degree completion?
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Why uni-variate outcome?
Pre-entry Attributes Goals
Institutional Experience Integration Goals Outcome
Non-traditional students
‘‘We label none of the thirteen propositions of Tinto’s theory as reliable knowledge [about] commuter colleges” (Braxton & Lee, 2005)
Bean & Metzner’s (1985) model for non-traditional students
learner characteristics
academic variables
environmental variables
academic outcomes
psychological outcomes
decision to Drop-out
learner characteristics
psychological outcomes
environmental variables
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Other Models: Falcone, 2012Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
MultivariateOutcomes
Empirical Work
What solid evidence do we have about online learning, degree completion, persistence, transfer etc?
Best evidence so far…
Best evidence: Virginia System
Online learning outcomes worse› Smith Jaggars & Xu, 2010; Xu & Smith
Jaggars, 2011 Data: N=24,000 in 23 institutions in
Virginia Community College System More failing/withdrawing from online Online students less likely to return Students w higher proportion of credits
online less likely to attain credential /transfer to 4 year institution
Best evidence: Washington State
Data: N=51,000 in 34 institutions in Washington State Community College System (Xu & Smith Jaggars, 2011)
Students with better preparation more likely to enroll in online courses…
But more likely to fail/withdraw Students who took more online courses
less likely to complete degree or transfer
Conclusions
Best evidence does not support strategy of increasing access via online ed
Produces more college students but fewer with vital college credentials
OLL less efficient/effective in goal of producing more college grads in US
Questionable results re. “meaningful” access
Current Study: National Data
Our study uses a national, rather than state samples of community college students
Question: Does a national sample yield same results?
Informal Review of Data
Initial analysis of this NCES data revealed interesting patterns
Community College student seemed to do better with some distance courses
Even better when the courses were online …
Cumulative persistence and attainment anywhere 2008-09
Attained bachelor's degree
Attained associate's degree
Attained certificate
No degree, still enrolled
No degree, left without
return
Total
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)Estimates
Total 30.7 9.3 9.4 15 35.5 100%
Distance education 2004: Took courses
No 31.2 8.9 9.6 15.1 35.2 100% Yes 26.3 13.5 8 14.3 38 100%
Standard Error (BRR)
Total 0.56 0.37 0.38 0.55 0.65
52% higher associates degree attainment?
Degree attainment 2008-09 by Distance Education in 2004
Cumulative persistence and attainment anywhere 2008-09
Attained bachelor's
degree
Attained associate's
degree
Attained certificate
No degree, still
enrolled
No degree, left
without return
Total
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)Estimates
Total 30.7 9.3 9.4 15 35.5 100%
Distance education used 2004: Internet No 31.2 8.9 9.6 15 35.3 100% Yes 25.5 14.1 7.3 15.1 38 100%
Standard Error (BRR)
Total 0.56 0.37 0.38 0.55 0.65
58% higher associates degree attainment?
Degree attainment 2008-09 by DE=Online Learning
No Controls
Does not account for other factors Possible that initial differences among
these two groups accounts for the higher degree completion rate
Took steps to control for initial differences between students in two groups
Methods
Degree attainment modeled as a function of enrollment in online/distance education courses at a community college
Controlling for a range of background characteristics
Propensity Score: Controlled for 40 Covariates
(a) person variables: gender, age, race, risk index of dropping out (NCES derived), disability status, remedial coursework eligibility, traditional high school diploma or not (GED, certificate of completion, homeschooled), type of high school (public, private, other), total amount of loans during the first year etc.
(b) family variables: gross adjusted family income, parents’ highest level of education, family size, siblings in college before respondent, parents taking college courses, parents’ place of birth (U.S. vs. not);
(c) institutional variables: distance from home, historically black institution, Hispanic serving institution, accreditation, in-state institution, size of enrollment, percent of student body receiving federal grants, and type of institution (rural, suburban, urban or other).
Propensity Scores
Matching attempts to mimic randomization in experimental design
Create a sample that received the treatment (DE/Online Ed)
Comparable on all 40 observed covariates to a sample that did not receive the treatment
Look at differences between these now matched samples
Sample Source: BPS
Data for BPS 04/09 collected from 16,100 first time beginning students at three points in time (in spring of 2004, 2006, 2009)
Participants in BPS represent target population of approximately 4,000,000 first time beginning post secondary students.
43.1% were first enrolled in two-year institutions offering associate’s or certificate degree.
ResultsNet of 40 factors: More likely to take distance/online courses
› Female students (p<.001), older students (p<.001), students from larger families (p<.05), students with a higher amount of institutional aid (p<.01) and loans (p<.05)
› Students whose residence was at a greater distance from the institution
› At greater risk of not completing a degree were somewhat more likely to be enrolled in distance education courses (p<.10).
Net of 40 factors: Less likely to take distance/online courses
› African –American students as compared to white students (p<.001)
› Students who had indicated that location (p<.05) represents a reason for attending a particular institution.
General Conclusions
Positive Effects:› Number of months of full time enrollment increase the chances of
degree attainment (B=.062, p<.001). › Students whose initial goal was to earn a certificate were about three
times more likely to graduate (B = 1.168, p<.001)
Neutral Effects› No differences in the odds of degree completion between students with
plans for a bachelor and those with a goal to earn an associate degree (B =.184, p>.05).
› Number of institutions attended does not decrease the odds for degree (B = .072, n.s.).
Negative Effects› The number of periods of interruptions in continuous enrollment had a
negative effect on the likelihood of degree attainment (B=-.232, p<.01)
Academic Preparation
Distance Education Students:
At higher risk for dropout Didn’t attend private high schools Maybe not better prepared? Despite this…
Predicting Attainment of Highest Degree
Distance Ed/Online Learning
Net of 40 other factors DE/online learners were 1.25 times as likely to attain any credential
When credential goal was certificate (rather than BA) DE/online learners were 3.22 times as likely to succeed
Results: Distance Education
Net of other differences the odds of graduating increase for students with early distance education coursework
Participation in online/distance learning does not appear to impede degree completion – perhaps facilitates it.
Summary
Course Persistence
Re-enrollment orTransfer
Preparedness Degree Completion
Virginia Study OLLs Lower OLLs Lower - OLLs Lower
Washington Study
OLLs Lower OLLs Lower OLLs more prepared
OLLs Lower
National Study - - OLLs same or less prepared?
OLLs 1.25X-3.2X Higher
OLLs = Online Learners
Proposed new “transactional” model
Includes institutionalresponse
Questions
Peter Shea, PhDAssociate ProfessorEducational Theory and Practice &College of Computing and InformationUniversity at Albany, State University of
Discussion
Several notable findings: › Unlike previous researchers (Xu & Smith
Jaggars, 2010; Smith-Jaggars and Xu, 2011)
› We did not find that students who participated in online/distance education were better-prepared academically
› The online/distance students were about the same or maybe less well prepared
Discussion
Despite potential initial disadvantage did not replicate findings that online/distance community college students were less likely to complete a college credential.
National level data yields the opposite conclusion.
Evidence suggests that early participation in online learning and distance education predicts higher rates of community college degree attainment.
Discussion
Women overrepresented in DE/Online courses DE/Online students more likely to receive financial
aid and have loans An artifact of higher levels of enrollment in private,
for profit institutions? For profits have demonstrated capacity to ensure
DE students get maximum financial aid relative to public institutions (Clayton, 2011)
Federal student loan data indicates students at for-profit institutions borrow more (and default more frequently) than those at public institutions (US Dept of Education, 2010)
