PPJ - Nov.12 2014

PPJ

The Coach

Special

http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Elements of Trading Plan

2


- Stop Tools

- How to Trailing Stop

- Profit Target

- Combination of Indicators

3 Exit Strategic

- What’s Trading StyleTrend Follow? Swing? Day?

- Trade Setup

- Position Sizing

2 Entry Rules- Amount of Capital

- % Risk of Capital

- %Loss per Trade

- Control Losses

1 Risk Control

Why 2% Risk ? Can be More ?

• 2% Risk of Capital

• Max. 5% Risk of Capital (Based on Trade Performance)

• 20% Max. Loss per Trade

• No more 5 Losing Trades in Consecutive

3


4

• Control Loss not more than 2% Risk of Capital

• Max. Loss = Capital x 2%

• Capital = 1,000,000 Baht

• Loss = 1,000,000 x 2% = 20,000 Baht

• Stop Loss = Buy Price – Stop Price

• Position Size = Max. Loss / Stop Loss

•ซือ้หุน้หลายตวั ใชว้ธิแีบง่ Capital เป็นหลายกอ้น งา่ยในการค านวณมากกวา่

2% Risk of Capital


5

Example

• Buy Price = 12 , Stop Price = 11.5

• Stop Loss = 12 – 11.5 = 0.50 (4%)

• Capital = 500,000

• Max. Loss = 500,000 x 2% = 10,000

• Position Size = 10,000 / 0.5 = 20,000 shares

• Buy = 12 x 20,000 = 240,000 Baht

2% Risk of Capital



Buying Price = 20

Stop Loss = 18.50

Target = 24.5 (100%)

RR = 4.5/1.5

= 3.0

100%

0%

61.8%

38.2%

Internal

0

A

B

6

Position Sizing

Cash Capital = 500,000 Baht

Limited Loss 2% = 10,000 Baht

Buying Price = 20 , Stop Loss = 18.50

Loss 20 – 18.5 = 1.50 baht

Position Size = 10,000/1.50 = 6,667 shares

1st Buy 20 x 6,500 = 130,000 Baht


7


1st Buying Price = 20

Stop Loss = 18.50

2nd Buying Price = 22.50

Stop Loss = 21

Target = 29 (161.8%)

RR = 6.5/1.5

= 4.33

0

A

B

100%

0%

61.8%

38.2%

Internal

200%

161.8%

138.2%

8

Adding 2nd Buy• 1st Buy 200,000 Baht , Price above 1st Buy

• Remain Capital = 370,000 Baht

• Limited Loss = 10,000 Baht

• 2nd Buy = 22.50 , Stop Loss = 21

• Loss = 22.50 – 21 = 1.50 Baht

• Position Size = 10,000/1.5 = 6,667 shares

• 2nd Buy 22.5 x 6,500 = 146,250 Baht


9



Stop Loss = 18.50


Stop Loss = 21

3rd Buying Price = 29

Stop Loss = 26

Target = 35 (261.8%)

RR = 6/3 = 2

100%

0%

61.8%

38.2%

Internal

200%

161.8%

138.2%

0

A

B

10261.8%

Adding 3rd Buy• 1st Buy 130,000 Baht , 2nd Buy 146,250 Baht

• Total = 276,250 , Remain = 223,750 Baht

• Total Shares = 13,000 shares

• Average Price = 21.25 Baht

• 3rd Buy = 29, Stop Loss = 26

• Loss = 29 – 26 = 3.0 Baht

• Position Size = 10,000/3 = 3,333 Shares

• 3rd Buy 29 x 3,000 = 87,000 Baht


11



Stop Loss = 18.50


Stop Loss = 21

Exit EMA15 = 32

3rd Buying Price = 29

Stop Loss = 26

0

A

B

100%

0%

61.8%

38.2%

Internal

161.8%

138.2%

261.8%12

Not Buy 3rd

Total Shares 13,000

Total Buy 276,250 (55.25%)

Average Price 21.25

Exit @ 3232 – 21.25

= 10.75 (50.59%)

Profit10.75 x 13,000

= 139,750

% of Port139,750 / 500,000

= 27.95%

Rewards


13

Buy 3rd

16,000

363,250 (72.65%)

22.7031

32 – 22.7031

= 9.2969 (40.95%)

9.2969 x 16,000

= 148,750

148,750 / 500,000

= 29.75%

14

6% Compounding Table6 Years Compounding Table

Start Capital

1,000,000.00 %profit per

month 6% Unitx 1000 Baht

Mth# Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital Mth# Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital Mth# Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital

1 1,000.00 60.00 15.00 1,060.00 25 4,048.93 242.94 60.73 4,291.87 49 16,393.87 983.63 245.91 17,377.50

2 1,060.00 63.60 15.90 1,123.60 26 4,291.87 257.51 64.38 4,549.38 50 17,377.50 1,042.65 260.66 18,420.15

3 1,123.60 67.42 16.85 1,191.02 27 4,549.38 272.96 68.24 4,822.35 51 18,420.15 1,105.21 276.30 19,525.36

4 1,191.02 71.46 17.87 1,262.48 28 4,822.35 289.34 72.34 5,111.69 52 19,525.36 1,171.52 292.88 20,696.89

5 1,262.48 75.75 18.94 1,338.23 29 5,111.69 306.70 76.68 5,418.39 53 20,696.89 1,241.81 310.45 21,938.70

6 1,338.23 80.29 20.07 1,418.52 30 5,418.39 325.10 81.28 5,743.49 54 21,938.70 1,316.32 329.08 23,255.02

7 1,418.52 85.11 21.28 1,503.63 31 5,743.49 344.61 86.15 6,088.10 55 23,255.02 1,395.30 348.83 24,650.32

8 1,503.63 90.22 22.55 1,593.85 32 6,088.10 365.29 91.32 6,453.39 56 24,650.32 1,479.02 369.75 26,129.34

9 1,593.85 95.63 23.91 1,689.48 33 6,453.39 387.20 96.80 6,840.59 57 26,129.34 1,567.76 391.94 27,697.10

10 1,689.48 101.37 25.34 1,790.85 34 6,840.59 410.44 102.61 7,251.03 58 27,697.10 1,661.83 415.46 29,358.93

11 1,790.85 107.45 26.86 1,898.30 35 7,251.03 435.06 108.77 7,686.09 59 29,358.93 1,761.54 440.38 31,120.46

12 1,898.30 113.90 28.47 2,012.20 36 7,686.09 461.17 115.29 8,147.25 60 31,120.46 1,867.23 466.81 32,987.69

13 2,012.20 120.73 30.18 2,132.93 37 8,147.25 488.84 122.21 8,636.09 61 32,987.69 1,979.26 494.82 34,966.95

14 2,132.93 127.98 31.99 2,260.90 38 8,636.09 518.17 129.54 9,154.25 62 34,966.95 2,098.02 524.50 37,064.97

15 2,260.90 135.65 33.91 2,396.56 39 9,154.25 549.26 137.31 9,703.51 63 37,064.97 2,223.90 555.97 39,288.87

16 2,396.56 143.79 35.95 2,540.35 40 9,703.51 582.21 145.55 10,285.72 64 39,288.87 2,357.33 589.33 41,646.20

17 2,540.35 152.42 38.11 2,692.77 41 10,285.72 617.14 154.29 10,902.86 65 41,646.20 2,498.77 624.69 44,144.97

18 2,692.77 161.57 40.39 2,854.34 42 10,902.86 654.17 163.54 11,557.03 66 44,144.97 2,648.70 662.17 46,793.67

19 2,854.34 171.26 42.82 3,025.60 43 11,557.03 693.42 173.36 12,250.45 67 46,793.67 2,807.62 701.91 49,601.29

20 3,025.60 181.54 45.38 3,207.14 44 12,250.45 735.03 183.76 12,985.48 68 49,601.29 2,976.08 744.02 52,577.37

21 3,207.14 192.43 48.11 3,399.56 45 12,985.48 779.13 194.78 13,764.61 69 52,577.37 3,154.64 788.66 55,732.01

22 3,399.56 203.97 50.99 3,603.54 46 13,764.61 825.88 206.47 14,590.49 70 55,732.01 3,343.92 835.98 59,075.93

23 3,603.54 216.21 54.05 3,819.75 47 14,590.49 875.43 218.86 15,465.92 71 59,075.93 3,544.56 886.14 62,620.49

24 3,819.75 229.18 57.30 4,048.93 48 15,465.92 927.96 231.99 16,393.87 72 62,620.49 3,757.23 939.31 66,377.72


15

4% Compounding Table


6 Years Compounding TableStart

Capital1,000,000.00

%profit per month 4% Unit

x 1000 Baht

Mth Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital Mth Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital Mth Capital Profit Profit/wk Total Capital

1 1,000.00 40.00 10.00 1,040.00 25 2,563.30 102.53 25.63 2,665.84 49 6,570.53 262.82 65.71 6,833.35

2 1,040.00 41.60 10.40 1,081.60 26 2,665.84 106.63 26.66 2,772.47 50 6,833.35 273.33 68.33 7,106.68

3 1,081.60 43.26 10.82 1,124.86 27 2,772.47 110.90 27.72 2,883.37 51 7,106.68 284.27 71.07 7,390.95

4 1,124.86 44.99 11.25 1,169.86 28 2,883.37 115.33 28.83 2,998.70 52 7,390.95 295.64 73.91 7,686.59

5 1,169.86 46.79 11.70 1,216.65 29 2,998.70 119.95 29.99 3,118.65 53 7,686.59 307.46 76.87 7,994.05

6 1,216.65 48.67 12.17 1,265.32 30 3,118.65 124.75 31.19 3,243.40 54 7,994.05 319.76 79.94 8,313.81

7 1,265.32 50.61 12.65 1,315.93 31 3,243.40 129.74 32.43 3,373.13 55 8,313.81 332.55 83.14 8,646.37

8 1,315.93 52.64 13.16 1,368.57 32 3,373.13 134.93 33.73 3,508.06 56 8,646.37 345.85 86.46 8,992.22

9 1,368.57 54.74 13.69 1,423.31 33 3,508.06 140.32 35.08 3,648.38 57 8,992.22 359.69 89.92 9,351.91

10 1,423.31 56.93 14.23 1,480.24 34 3,648.38 145.94 36.48 3,794.32 58 9,351.91 374.08 93.52 9,725.99

11 1,480.24 59.21 14.80 1,539.45 35 3,794.32 151.77 37.94 3,946.09 59 9,725.99 389.04 97.26 10,115.03

12 1,539.45 61.58 15.39 1,601.03 36 3,946.09 157.84 39.46 4,103.93 60 10,115.03 404.60 101.15 10,519.63

13 1,601.03 64.04 16.01 1,665.07 37 4,103.93 164.16 41.04 4,268.09 61 10,519.63 420.79 105.20 10,940.41

14 1,665.07 66.60 16.65 1,731.68 38 4,268.09 170.72 42.68 4,438.81 62 10,940.41 437.62 109.40 11,378.03

15 1,731.68 69.27 17.32 1,800.94 39 4,438.81 177.55 44.39 4,616.37 63 11,378.03 455.12 113.78 11,833.15

16 1,800.94 72.04 18.01 1,872.98 40 4,616.37 184.65 46.16 4,801.02 64 11,833.15 473.33 118.33 12,306.48

17 1,872.98 74.92 18.73 1,947.90 41 4,801.02 192.04 48.01 4,993.06 65 12,306.48 492.26 123.06 12,798.74

18 1,947.90 77.92 19.48 2,025.82 42 4,993.06 199.72 49.93 5,192.78 66 12,798.74 511.95 127.99 13,310.68

19 2,025.82 81.03 20.26 2,106.85 43 5,192.78 207.71 51.93 5,400.50 67 13,310.68 532.43 133.11 13,843.11

20 2,106.85 84.27 21.07 2,191.12 44 5,400.50 216.02 54.00 5,616.52 68 13,843.11 553.72 138.43 14,396.84

21 2,191.12 87.64 21.91 2,278.77 45 5,616.52 224.66 56.17 5,841.18 69 14,396.84 575.87 143.97 14,972.71

22 2,278.77 91.15 22.79 2,369.92 46 5,841.18 233.65 58.41 6,074.82 70 14,972.71 598.91 149.73 15,571.62

23 2,369.92 94.80 23.70 2,464.72 47 6,074.82 242.99 60.75 6,317.82 71 15,571.62 622.86 155.72 16,194.48

24 2,464.72 98.59 24.65 2,563.30 48 6,317.82 252.71 63.18 6,570.53 72 16,194.48 647.78 161.94 16,842.26

16

Position Size in each Stop Loss


17

1. Initial Stop – Breakout Pyramid


18


Initial Stop

Initial Stop

Initial StopEntry

Entry

Entry


19


Initial Stop

Open Short

Open Short

Initial Stop

Initial Stop


1st Bar Stop

2nd Bar Stop

3rd Bar Stop

1st Bar Stop

2nd Bar Stop

3rd Bar Stop

20

• Trend Up : Low ของแทง่ X เป็น Stop

• Trend Down : High ของแทง่ X เป็น Stop

• เริม่ Entry ใช ้3rd Bar Stop (Safety Belt)

• ราคาวิง่ไป กระชบัลดจ านวน Bar เพือ่ Lock Profit

2. X-Bars StopLive Bar

Live Bar


21

2. X-Bars Stop

Initial Stop

Open Long

Open Long

Initial Stop

3-Bars Stop After Open Gap

Open Long

Trailing Stop by 3-Bars Stop

2-Bars Stop


22

3. MA Stop• ใช ้Moving Average ในการวาง Stop

• ใชไ้ดท้ัง้ EMA , SMA

• เลอืกใชเ้สน้ใหเ้หมาะกบัสนิคา้ และความเร็วในการ Run Trend

• ตวัอยา่ง

EMA 5, 15 , 35

SMA 9, 20

Alligators


ANACONDA TECHNICS


The Squeeze Technics• Mastering of The Trade, John F. Carter,

2nd Edition

• เป็นการยกุตใ์ช ้Bollinger Band รว่มกบั KeltnerChannel

• ใชจั้บจังหวะทีเ่กดิ Price Consolidated in Very Narrow Area เรยีกวา่ “The Squeeze”

• เป็นการบบีตัวกอ่นที ่Price จะระเบดิ Momentum ออกมาอยา่งรนุแรงไป ดา้นใดดา้นหนึง่

•คลา้ยงยูักษ์ ทีห่ดตัวกอ่นดดีตัวโจมตเีหยือ่

24


25


Bollinger Band• Developed by John Bollinger , 1980s

• Volatility Band, use Standard Deviation Above and Below of SMA

• SMA20 , SD. 2.0

• ใชจั้บจังหวะการระเบดิของราคาใหช้ว่งเวลาสัน้ๆExtreme Short-term Price Trending

• เหมาะกบั Time Frame Day หรอื Intraday

26


Bollinger Band Signal• Price วิง่เป็น Trend, Band กางออก (Expand)

• Price พักตัว Consolidate , Band หบุเขา้ (Narrow)

• Price Breakout อยา่งม ีMomentum แรง ราคาจะวิง่เกนิ Std.Div. Price ทะล ุBand

• Price Above Upper Band Buy Signal

• Price Below Lower Band Sell Signal

• ราคาออ่นแรง จะถอยออกหา่งจาก Band

• Price Away Band Prepare for Exit Signal

27


28


Keltner Channel• Developed by Chester W. Keltner, in his 1960 book “How to Make Money in Commodities”

• Volatility Envelope , use ATR – Average True Range set Above and Below of SMA

• Default SMA10 , ATR(10) x 1.0

• ใชด้จัูงหวะของราคาวิง่แรง ซือ้มาก (Overbought) หรอืขายมาก (Oversold)

• ใชใ้นการ Run Trend และ Stop Loss

29


Keltner Channel Signal• ขอบบน = SMA10 + 1 ATR

• ขอบลา่ง = SMA10 – 1 ATR

• ราคาอยูน่อก Channel ม ีTrend

• ราคาเขา้ใน Channel ออ่นแรง

• ราคาขา้มเสน้ SMA ตรงกลาง Stop Loss

30


31


Bollinger Band + Keltner Channel

• Parameter

• Bollinger Band ; SMA20 , SD 2.0

• Keltner Channel ; SMA20 , ATR(20) x 1.5

• Signal

• Price Squeeze รอ Breakout

• Entry : Price Breakout , Close ทะล ุBand

• Stop : Keltner Channel or SMA20

• Exit : Price Away Band and In Channel

32


The Squeeze Indicator

• The Squeeze Indicator แสดง Momentum ของราคา และการเกดิ Squeeze Signal

• Histogram = ระยะหา่งระหวา่ง Bollinger Band กบั Keltner Channel และทศิทางของราคา

• Squeeze Dot = แสดง สแีดง Squeeze เมือ่ Band เขา้ไปอยูใ่น Channel แสดง สเีขยีว = ไม ่Squeeze

33


34


35


36


The Zone• The Zone = Combo AO + AC

• AO = Momentum

• AC = Acceleration

• Green Zone = AO & AC Green Agree

• Red Zone = AO & AC Red Agree

• Grey Zone = AO & AC Disagree

• The Zone happen 6-8 Bars Continuous in average

37


Trading In The Zone

Indicator GREEN RED GREY

AO

AboveZero[+]

Entry Buy Sell ExitNO

TRADEBelowZero[-]

Buy Exit Entry Sell

38


Buy on Green ZoneIn Green Zone ; 1st Green Zone Happen

1. Wait 2nd Green Zone , Close of 2nd Green Higher Close of 1st Green Buy @ Close

2. Continue Buy if Close of Green Zone still be Higher than the Previous Bar

3. The 5th Green Zone is the Last Buy

4. Stop place under Low of the 5th Green Zone or the Last Entry and Trailing Stop when Price Rising up Higher High

39


Buy on Green Zone

40


No Entry after the 5th Zone

41


42


Sell on Red ZoneIn Red Zone ; 1st Red Zone Happen

1. Wait 2nd Red Zone , Close of 2nd Red LowerClose of 1st Red Sell @ Close

2. Continue Sell if Close of Red Zone still be Lower than the Previous Bar

3. The 5th Red Zone is the Last Sell

4. Stop place Above High of the 5th Red Zone or the Last Entry and Trailing Stop when Price Falling down Lower Low

43


Sell on Red Zone

44


No Entry after the 5th Zone

45


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THE ENDhttp://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Education

PPJ - Nov.12 2014