Group-11

Managing Project Uncertainty

What is Project Uncertainty?

Risk management is the practice of identifying, evaluating and controlling those factors to avoid potential negative effects.

What is Risk Management ?

Uncertainty is ability to predict outcome of parameters or foresee events that may impact the project and It can be risk or opportunity.(negative effects, positive effects )

What is Risk ?

Possible negative outcome.

THE FOUR TYPES OF UNCERTAINTIES

•Variation uncertainty

•Foreseen uncertainty

•Unforeseen uncertainty

•Chaos uncertainty

Simply variation means the difference between the project plan & the working project schedule as well as the budget of the project.

It will be occur due to many reasons. Such as poor estimations, worker sickness, weather, delayed parts delivery, unanticipated difficulty of tasks & etc.

It is the duty of the project manager to reduce the variation as possible.

Otherwise the time, cost & the scope of the project will not going to behave in the project as we planned previously.

While doing a project there are uncertainties that

the project management team can identify & predict what will be going to happen in future according to their experiences as well as analysing the historical data.

Those kind of identifiable, understandable uncertainties are known as foreseen uncertainty.

Pharmaceutical development is an area that really pays an attention on foreseen uncertainty. It is essential to detect and manage risks, primarily in the form of drug side effects.

A developer of a new drug can anticipate possible side effects because they have appeared previously in related drugs.

Then the developers can make contingency plans to change the prescribed dosage or restrict usage to for the drug.

The side effect is the foreseen uncertainty. The contingency plan may never be used, but it is there if the side effect occurs

• Unforeseen uncertainty means risk that can’t be

identified during project planning

In the case of unforeseen uncertainties, the project

manager does not have a predefined response to the

event, either because the manager is not aware of the

possibility of the event and also Unforeseen uncertainty

makes urgent planning more difficult because not all

influence factors can be anticipated.

In this situation relevant technologies will be an

essential task to be carried out in the project , therefore

The project manager often need to good knowledge about the technology.

Chaos refers to the fundamental uncertainty about

the basic structure of the project plan itself. There

is no good understand for the final outcome or there is no formula about the project.

Chaos

A well-known example is Sun’s development of Java.

It was conceived in 1991 as the driver of a controlling

device for household appliances ( “super remote

control with GUI”), but in 1995 ended up as a page

programming language for the world-wide web,

something that did not even exist in 1991 at the start of the project.

WHAT IS AN UNCERTAINTY PROFILE • A Qualitative explanation of how each type of uncertainty

may affect the project.

• Creating an Uncertainty profile for each project, makes it

more easier to respond with a urgent plan.

• It can be helped to identify which uncertainty type

should we more focus on and what are the most

common uncertainty types

REAL WORLD EXAMPLE

Thank You !!!