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Complexity, Scarcity and the School of the Future
Issues in the world are getting more complex
Natural resource scarcity
US debt crisis
EURO debt crisis
Permanent austerity the way forward?
• Originally refers to “retrenchment” of the social welfare system
• Are world governments heading towards permanent austerity?
• How does this impact on education policy?
Government Policy
• policy is set in increasingly complex settings
• don’t have all the answers
• planning 25-30 years ahead - strategic planning
Tools
• scenario planning
• horizon scanning
Scenario planning
• Scenario 1: continued prosperity – status quo
• Scenario 2: permanent austerity (greater accountability of fiscal budget); lack of resources (manmade and others)
Scenario 2: permanent austerity
• Greater leverage on ICT because brick and mortar schools are expensive
• Moore’s law on technology getting cheaper with time and ICT becomes very mobile
• Teachers and students learn from home - telecommuting to save cost
• Interaction with other children and with teachers at a localised community level say with a 10 block radius
• A school without a building - administrative work done online and classes conducted at places of interest say a museum for social studies