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Dr Camille Mellin presents the topic ‘Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation: A confederacy of ecological scales’. For a short synopsis of her seminar read on. Coral reefs are currently undergoing an unprecedented and world-wide decline. Rapid climate change, increased ocean temperature and changes to ocean currents are expected to reduce dispersal distances and the spatial scale of population connectivity. Connectivity may also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effect of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Species distribution models can provide an essential tool in support of management and coral reef conservation, provided they successfully incorporate the spatial scales of connectivity, and how they are likely to change in the near future.
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Environment InstituteScience Seminar Series 2009
Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation: A confederacy
of ecological scales
Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin
Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for
conservation:
A confederacy of ecological scales
Camille MELLIN
Photo: CSIRO
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille.mellin
Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Coral Reefs
• The most biologically diverse of all marine ecosystems
• A total of 1766 fish species and 727 coral species recorded to date• Many are still to be described
Ecosystem goods and services
• Food
• Tourism
• Biomedical compounds
• Protection against storms and waves• Cultural heritage
Nearly 500 million people
depend on coral reefs, with
probably 30 million of the
poorest people relying entirely
on reefs for food
Anthropogenic pressure on coral reefs
Deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading Destructive fishing
practices
Overfishing
Invasive species and starfish outbreaks
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science
Climate change: a complex threat acting at multiple levels
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Predation
Plankton availability
Ocean currents
Temperature
Robertson & Kaufman (1998) Aus J Ecol
Temporal scales
Early recruitment
Adult population size
Cowen et al. (2006) Science
Spatial scales
50 km
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Availability of suitable habitat
Chemical or visual cues
Resident communities
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
e.g., Fecundity
Longevity
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Steneck et al. (2009) Coral Reefs
Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Steinberg (2007) in Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Simulated advection of passive particles around Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef
a) normal conditions
b) with a 2° deviation of the SEC
Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
source: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA)
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
El Niño
La Niña
Tropical regions with significantly warmer or cooler maximum sea surface temperature (SST)
Annual SST difference since 1950
0.3° contour interval
Significant difference in means (warmer or cooler)
Data from British Atmospheric Data Centre
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Trophic level
Ecological succession
Changes in sea surface temperature & impact on ecological successions
Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) = f (temperature)
MATCH-MISMATCH theory, David Cushing (1975; 1990)
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on dispersal kernels:
PLD
PLD – 10 %
PLD – 20%
Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on inter-reef connectivity:
PLD
PLD – 20%
High reef densityLow reef density
Munday et al (2009) Coral Reefs
Thalassoma bifasciatum (Labridae)
Climate change and ocean acidification
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science
Climate change and ocean acidification
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Climate change and ocean acidification
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
De’Ath et al. (2009) Science
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science
Future of coral reefs: phase shift and ecosystem collapse?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Future of coral reefs: phase shift and ecosystem collapse?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science
Carpenter et al. (2008) Science
Critically endangered species
Critically endangered + Endangered species
Critically endangered + Endangered + Vulnerable species
Critically endangered + Endangered + Vulnerable + Near threatened species
Future of coral reefs: what does this all mean?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
McClanahan et al. (2007) Ecol Appl
Mumby et al. (2006) Science
The positive effect of marine protected areas
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Fish
Corals
Snails
Lobsters
Concordance in SR
Threats to coral reefs
Concordance in rarity and multitaxon centers of endemism
Roberts et al. (2002) Science
Species Richness
(SR)
Designing marine protected areas: which criteria to account for?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Mellin et al. (2007) Coral Reefs
Pittman et al. (2007) Ecol Model
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeSpecies distribution models in coral reefs
Fish species richness Fish abundance
Mellin et al. (in press) Global Ecology and Biogeography
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeSpecies distribution models in coral reefs
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeSpecies distribution models in coral reefs
Mellin et al. (submitted to Ecology)
Spatially explicit COMMUNITY-based models
Static SDM ignore species interactions, population and metapopulation
dynamics How to model the interactions between 1000s of species in
coral reefs: using functional groups?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeSpecies distribution models in coral reefs: limits
Models are rarely validated
Statistical validation only
Need for independent validation data sets
Outline
1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity
2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity
3 Predicted impact of climate change
4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation
5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changePredicting the future : model projections based on climate change scenariosNeed for similar approach in marine ecosystems, considering that:
• 3D oceanographic
models must be
calibrated through initial
conditions and conditions
at domain boundaries
• Bathymetry is not a
sufficient covariate –
circulation patterns must
be considered
Araujo & Rahbeck (2006) Science
Test the temporal stability of species-environment relationships
Test the predictability of distribution models over time
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate change
Bellwood et al. (2006) Current Biology
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeExperimentation: an insight into the future?
1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science
2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives3. Predicted impact of climate changeTake-home message
• Coral reefs are impacted by climate change in a number of ways
• Management can mitigate climate change impact on coral reefs
• Species distribution models can be useful to conservation,
provided that they successfully incorporate the scales of
population connectivity
Thanks for your attention!
Further information
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille.mellin
Environment InstituteScience Seminar Series 2009
Final Seminar Sem 1: 29 June – 12pm
Policy responses to a drying climate may save Adelaide’s kelp forests
Presented by: Associate Professor Sean Connell
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