September 2012

Tim Searchinger, Technical Director, WRI Associate Research Scholar, Princeton University (tsearchi@princeton.edu)

Photo: Espen Faugstad

Sustainable Food Wedges: A portfolio of solutions for sustainably feedin the planet

Photo: Espen Faugstad

World Resources Report Core collaborators: INRA, CIRAD Historic Collaborators: World Bank, UNDP, UNEP

INPUT TO

AAgriculture-related emissions could be 15 gigatons in 2050

Sources: Food increases from Bruinsma 2009 (FAO); Various sources other

MtCO2e / year from agriculture

- Reduce losses & waste? - Diet? - Population? More land efficient Production -Yield gains? - Intensify pasture? - Aquaculture? Reduce methane, nitrous oxide emissions

ILLUSTRATIVE “Wedges” framing

Demand control

4-5 Ton CO2 target for agriculture and land use change

Business as usual

CO2

Source: WRI calculations based on food balance sheet data from FAOSTAT 2009 and waste percentages from Gustavsson et al. 2011.

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Cereals Roots AndTubers

Oilseeds andPulses

Fruits andVegetables

Meat Fish and Seafood Milk

in trillions of kcals

Developed World

Developing World

FAO Estimated Global Food Waste is 33% of Tons but 23% of Calories

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Cereals Roots AndTubers

Oilseeds andPulses

Fruits andVegetables

Meat Fish andSeafood

Milk

In 1000 tonnes

Developed World

Developing World

PRELIMINARY

But where it is wasted differs regionally

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Agriculturalproduction

Postharvesthandling &

storage

Processing &packaging

Distribution Consumption

Perc

ent w

aste

d

Stage in food life cycle

Estimated waste of meat throughout the life cycle

Europe (incl. Russia)

Sub Saharan Africa

Source: Global Food Losses and Food Waste, FAO. 2011.

Gstavvson, FAO 2011

Purdue Cowpea Storage Project https://ag.purdue.edu/ipia/pics/Pages/home.aspx

4. Historically, with increased wealth typically comes a shift in diet toward more meat

*Gross National Income Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.” Government Office for Science, London.

Changing consumption of meat in relation to GNI*, 1961-2007

Wirsenius et al., Ag Systems. 2010

FEED EFFICIENCY FOR DIFFERENT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS

FAO ESTIMATED PER PERSON LIVESTOCK CONSUMPTION GROWTH (Bruinsma 2009)

Livestock kcal per person/day

Beef kcal per person/day

Region 2005/07 2050 Increase 2005/072 2050 increase

World 375 454 21% 39 49 26% US & Canada 892 1011 113 114 Other OECD 508 624 56 66

China 531 790 24 59 India 158 291 6 11 Sub-Saharan Africa 106 140 26 34

Some Projections to Feed World by 2050

Globiom • 266 million additional

hectares cropland • 121 million hectares

grassland • 343 million hectares decline

unmanaged forest (offset by 103 million hectares of plantations)

• 168 million hectare decline “other” natural vegetation

FAO • 120 million hectares

increase in cropland in tropics

• 50 million hectare decrease in developed countries

• Effective increase of 93 million hectares through higher cropping intensity

Can We Boost Yields Enough to Avoid Cropland Expansion?

“Guinea Savanna” is not generally low environmental cost reserve land.

Analysis by Thornton, Notenbaert in Searchinger et al, submitted PNAS

Carbon loss/yield ratio is high relative to world average 21 tC/ton of maize yield

Feeding Ruminants Uses Enormous Quantities of Forage and Other Non-Crop Feeds

Reproduced from Wirsenius 2010, Agricultural Systems

2030

Predicted 2000-2010 Pasture & Cropland Expansion in Latin America Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change 17:86-104 (2007)

FAO Data suggests pasture has been 2/3 Net Ag Expansion

Results • Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units; • Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units; Current productivity only 32-34% of potential

Current Productivity Potential Productivity

Analysis & slide by B. Strassburg, GAEA

Do Higher Yields Spare Forests?

Borlaug Angelsen & Kaimowitz v.

Brazil

High yields in tropics will reduce cropland/ton of food but will help shift world crop production into the tropics

FAO 2011 Forest Remote Sensing Survey (Initial Results) (2011): 2000-2005: 15.2 Mha/y gross forest loss offset by 8.8 Mha reforestation 1990-2000: 14.2 Mha/y gross loss offset by 10.1 reforestation

Solving the Paradox?

• Integrate ag efforts with REDD • Focus export ag on high-value,high-

labor labor intense products – NOT cereals, oilseeds, beef

• Help small farmers • Carefully plan road network

How much energy could ALL the world crops and timber produce?

1.2% 1.4% 0.8%

1.8% 1.6% 2.0%

0.5%

3.1%

0.8%

0.9% 3.8%

2.6%

1.2% 0.6%

-0.1%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Cereals Cereals Cereals OilseedsOilseedsOilseeds SugarCrops

SugarCrops

SugarCrops

Palm Palm Palm

Com

poun

d An

nual

Gro

wth

Rat

e in

Yie

ld

Crop Yields Needed 2006-2020 to Provide Food and 10.3% of World Transport Fuel (E4Tech Scenario) With and Without Biofuels Without Land

use Change Compared To 1996-2006 Trend and FAPRI Projections

1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demandBiofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection

24

Carbon Payback Times for Biofuels from Perennial Grasses in “Guinea Savanna” Searchinger et al. PNAS submitted (modeling by Tim Beringer, Potsdam Institute)

Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050: Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to 1.96 billion

(medium estimate UN) – 165% calorie growth FAO)

Current 2050 - Current consumption and % of Imports

2050 - FAO projection &10% imports n (2830 kcal)

Cropland needed at current yields for domestic food consumption (hectares)

154 million 357 million 440 million

Cereal yield needed to avoid new land clearing

1.23 t/ha 2.81 t/ha 3.9t/ha

Most of the World Has Lower Fertility Fertility

World Bank data through http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/compare#country=bd:br:sv:pe:uz:vn

Low infant mortality Access to family planning Education, job opportunities for women

Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2010 revision

< 2.1 2.2–3.1 3.2–4.1 > 4.2

n/a

With birth rate of 2.1 instead of 3 in 2050, can hold population to 1.6 rather than 1.96 and 2100 to close to same If SSA total fertility rate remains at 5.5, its population will reach 2.7 billion by 2050 & 14.5 billion by 2100

Sub-Saharan Africa Total Birth Rates Still 5.5

Boosting Girls’ Lower Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa is Key

Source: Oxford Institute of Population Ageing

< 20

20–40 40–60 60-80

> 80

n/a Countries with TFR 2.1 have 100% of girls in at least lower secondary education Countries with 2.2-3 have 60-80% girls in lower secondary education

Agroforestry is starting to take off in Africa

• Ethiopia (1,000,000 ha); Mali (400,000 - 500,000 ha); Burkina Faso (200,000 ha); Zambia and Malawi (280,000 households)

Source: McGahuey, M. “Africa’s Regreening: Its Integral Role in Increasing Agricultural Productivity and Strengthening Resiliency”, presentation at WRI Symposium on Regreening, March 1, 2012.

Niger – 5 Million Hectares

The potential for expanding this approach is vast

Source: Mahamane, L. (AFF). Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration in Niger. Presentation to the United Nations, February 2011.

PRELIMINARY

An approach for maximizing dryland agricultural productivity

Source: C. Reij, personal communication

+ then

Water harvesting Agroforestry Micro-dosing

IPCC 2007 MITIGATION REPORT WAS ALL ABOUT CARBON SEQUESTRATION

• No Till? – Depth

• Baker et al. (2007); • Blanco-Canqui & Lal (2008)

– Nitrous Oxide • Developing world

– Alternative uses of residues – Mulches transfer carbon rather than add carbon

The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains

but agroforestry . . .

Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows Gerber et al., FAO (2010)

Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases per kilogram of milk

U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram of milk

Accessible improvements – cut emissions per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3. High protein shrub Improved pasture Increased stover digestibility Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS

Trials of nitrogen fertilizer reductions in Shaanxi resulted in no loss of crop yield

Fertilizer reduction

• Wheat: 30%

• Maize: 50%

• Cucumbers under plastic: >60%

Source: China-UK project, 2007-2010, Shaanxi Province, northwest China

Strategies for reducing impacts (e.g., GHG) from paddy rice

1. Removal of rice straw 2. Use sandier soils 3. Potassium 4. Right varieties 5. Avoid flooding in off-season 6. Rotations 7. Mid-season draw downs 8. System of rice intensification (SRI)?

AQUACULTURE MUST PROVIDE ALL FUTURE FISH GROWTH

Source: FAO. 2012. State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, Food Balance Sheets, FishStatJ.

World Fish Production Million tons

Note: Assumes all farmed fish were for food.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Aquaculture (outside of China)

Aquaculture (China)

Capture fisheries (food)

Capture fisheries (non-food uses)

The aquaculture industry is becoming more efficient

Source: Tacon and Metian 2008.

Fish-in-fish-out ratios for major aquaculture species groups, 1995-2020

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total all aquaculture

Total major fed species

Non-filter-feeding carp

Milkfish

Catfish

Tilapia

Freshwater crustaceans

Shrimp

Marine fish

Eel

Trout

Salmon

1995

2006

2020 predicted

PRELIMINARY

Species group % of all protein

production Kcal

efficiency Protein

efficiency Fed aquaculture 76.57% Catfish 6.58% Channel catfish 0.94% 31.43% 18.56% Pangasius catfish 2.86% 26.38% 21.18% Carps (fed) 37.43% 33.60% 17.37% Eels 1.15% 39.43% 18.44% Salmonids 5.15% Atlantic salmon 3.05% 45.58% 35.59% Rainbow trout 1.56% 36.56% 32.37% Shrimps and Prawns 8.89% Giant tiger prawn 1.44% 32.06% 20.22% Whiteleg shrimp 4.96% 31.37% 22.35% Tilapias 7.47% 21.17% 16.06% Other fed finfish 8.58% Milkfish 1.73% 43.69% 20.11% Other aquatic animals 1.30% Unfed aquaculture 23.43% Mollusks 6.41% N/A N/A Carps (filter-feeding) 14.31% N/A N/A Other unfed freshwater fish 2.71%

Sources : WRI calculations from data provided by World Fish Center

Feed Efficiency of Aquaculture is High (like chicken)

PRELIMINARY

Example of Aquaculture Growth Scenario to 2050

Source: FAO FishStatJ. 2012, author’s calculations Assumptions to 2050: 1) capture fisheries production constant at 90 Mt/year, 2) aquaculture production grows at 2 Mt/year, 3) same aquaculture species mix as 2010, 4) fish-in-fish-out ratios predicted for 2020 (Tacon and Metian 2008) remain unchanged to 2050.

World Fish Production Million tons Aquaculture

Capture fisheries

0

50

100

150

200

250

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year Total aquaculture production (Mt)

Wild fish converted to feed (Mt)

2008 53 16.5

2020 (proj.) 80 14.4

2050 (proj.) 140 25.2

INCREASED LAND USE EFFICIENCY IMPORTANT

Inland ponds 11.5 million hectares Direct land use for pond aquaculture: 0.66 tonnes/ha total land use for chicken & pork ~ 1 tonne/hectare

Our calculations from Hall et a. (World Fish Center) 2011 data

Sum Up

• Diet • Losses & waste • Sub-Saharan Africa • Pasture intensification & livestock feeding

efficiency • Couple with natural area protection (not just

forests but savannahs & wetlands) • Bioenergy • Aquaculture