Upload
steps-centre
View
1.830
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute on Biofuels, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges.
Citation preview
Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate, SEI
Institute of Development Studies
University of Sussex
15 September 2008
Bioenergy, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges
• Began with Beijer Institute in 1977; focus on energy & climate
• Groundbreaking studies on fuel wood in Africa
• Helped form GHGs advisory group in 1980s - later led to IPCC
• SEI created in 1989, named after 1972 UN Conference
Historical background of SEI :
Current structure of SEI:• Centres-Stockholm (HQ), Tallinn, U.S., Oxford, York, Bangkok
• New Centre at University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
• Climate and Energy is one of six research programmes
• About 120 research staff and 25 support staff
• International partners and associates in more than 40 countries
• Funded through Govt core support (20%) and projects (80%)
to support decision-making and induce change towards
sustainable development around the world by providing
integrative knowledge that bridges science and policy in the
field of environment and development
MISSION:
A-B-C for D
Improving Access to Modern Energy ServicesAdvancing Bioenergy ResourcesSupporting Climate Policy Processes………………for Sustainable Development
provides focal points for SEI policy analysis,
research, and capacity-building efforts
SEI Climate and Energy Programme Strategy
Recent or ongoing SEI bioenergy programmes, projects, and networks
Advancing Modern Bioenergy: Guidelines for Policymakers and Investors; World Bank/ESMAP (2001-2005)
Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA); EC/FP5, 2002-06
Renewable Energy Partnerships for Africa; EC/FP6, 2004-2005 Biomass, Livelihoods & International Trade; Sida, 2005-2007 Bioenergy for Development in a Changing Climate; Sida,2007-09 Competence Platform on Energy Crop and Agro-forestry Systems
for Semi-arid Ecosystems in Africa (COMPETE); EC/FP6, 2007-09 Briefing Paper for European Parliament on EU Biofuels Target and
Sustainability Criteria, 2008 Clean Cooking Fuels in the East African Community (EAC), 2008 Household Energy: Analysis of ethanol cook stoves in
Ethiopia, 2008
What is Biomass? – living matter originating from plants and animals: primary, secondary, tertiary sources
Biomass ≠ Bio-energy! Many inter-connected and critical functions/services:
• The 4Fs: Food, Feed, Fibre, and Fuel.........• .......and still more Fs: Fertiliser, Feedstocks, Flora, Fauna
• Shelter, housing, household materials• Livelihoods, entrepreneurship, local business opportunities• Maintenance of Biodiversity• Ecosystem functions and integrity• Nutrient cycles and functional synergies• Water quality, erosion control, watershed maintenance• Recreation, peacefulness, tranquillity, wildlife observation• Contribution to human dignity and equality• Shaping the role of citizens and communities as caretakers• Resource Base for Future Generations
Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bio-energy development and North-South Collaboration
• Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods
• Relieving resource pressures and stresses
• Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration
• Energy security: local – regional – global
• Rural health issues - indoor air
• Urban health issues – lead, air quality
• future competitiveness of agro-industries
• Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits
• Developing countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market
• Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification
Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios
434
111137
North AmericaJapan
Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East &
North Africa
1 232 39
W.Europe
014
32 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania
America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia
1021
178
221
410
sub-Saharan
Africa
41
149
331
Caribean &
Latin America
178
253
315
46
2
68111
136
CIS &
Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
434
111137
North AmericaJapan
Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East &
North Africa
1 232 39
W.Europe
014
32 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania
America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia
1021
178
221
410
sub-Saharan
Africa
41
149
331
Caribean &
Latin America
178
253
315
46
2
68111
136
CIS &
Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
Potential in Oceania
is 4-6 times projected
primary energy use
Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004
A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources
for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.
Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains
low in most world regions
Share of biomass in global energy consumption
Oil
35%
Natural gas
22%
Coal
22%
Nuclear
7%
Biomass
11%
Other
renewables
3%
Large hydro
16%
Traditional
biomass
68%
Modern bio-
energy
11%
Other ‘New’
renewables
5%
Source: IEA and UNDP, 2004-2007
Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption
Oil
13%
Gas
3%
combustible
renewables
and waste
61%
Hydro
1%
Coal
21%
Nuclear
1%
Oil
13%
Gas
3%
combustible
renewables
and waste
71%
Hydro
2%
Coal
11%
Nuclear
0%
Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004
Excluding South Africa
Including South Africa
Distribution of biomass used for energy by type and end-use
Share of Traditional Biomass in Residential Consumption
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, page 423.
2.5 billion people depend on traditional biomass for cooking
Covering a charcoal kiln
Charcoal bag distribution by truck (note the driver having a nap underneath it)
The Role of modern bioenergyModern bioenergy will play a leading role in the global transition to clean and
sustainable energy due to two decisive advantages over other renewables:
(1) Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it can be drawn on at any time, in sharp contrast to daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and small hydro sources, whose contributions are all constrained by the high costs of energy storage.
(2) Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e. energy carriers, for modern economies: electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar, wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity and in some cases heat.
Modern bioenergy has several other advantages over other energy resources:
• provides rural jobs and income to people who grow or harvest the bioenergy resources; bioenergy is more labour-intensive than other energy resources;
• increases profitability in the agriculture, food-processing and forestry sectors. Biomass residues and wastes--often with substantial disposal costs--can instead be converted to energy for sale or for internal use to reduce energy bills;
• helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees, shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils, with energy production and sales as a valuable bonus;
Steps and resources in biomass conversion to
energy products and fuels
Sugar Cane Harvesting in Malawi
Eucalyptus plantation in
Brazil
Ethanol for cooking
stoves
Bioenergy market development
1.Local use of forest and agricultural residues
2.Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of residues, and energy efficiency
3.Infrastructure development
4.National market development through supportive policies and incentives
5.Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large scale utilization, transport logistics
6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs
7. Global commodity market
Energy source Jobs per TWh output
Nuclear 75
Small hydro 120
Natural gas 250
Big hydro 250
Oil 260
Oil offshore 265
Coal 370
Traditional biomass (wood) 733 - 1.067
Wind 918 - 2.400
Ethanol (in Brazil) 3.711 - 5.392
Solar 2.958 – 10.700
Livelihoods – creation of jobs in energy industries
Source: Delcio, 2007
Major Barriers to Modern Bioenergy Markets in Least Developed Countries
• The Three I’s: Infrastructure, Investment, and Institutions• Infrastructure:
• difficulty in getting products to regional and international markets
• technology platforms too often based on “northern” standards
• very large region: SSA is bigger than Brazil, China, and India combined
• low technical capacity to adapt to technical standards (i.e. fuel quality)
• Investment:
• demand is too small for local markets to develop or attract investment
• demand is not well-articulated in terms of end-use sectors
• investment risk is seen as very high in macro-economic terms
• Institutions:
• lack of well-defined regulations for energy firm ownership and operation
• intra-regional economic cooperation at a very early stage; some regions (southern Africa) dominated by one country (South Africa)
• low government capacity to implement bioenergy policies
• low administrative capacity to prove compliance with biofuel certification
Bioenergy Development Options - Scale matters
Large Scale
1. Sugarcane to EtOH
2. Palm / Soy Biodiesel
Mill-owned
estate
Very competitive
globally
Lower Value
Added to Local
Communities
*lowest risk
Export potential
Small-holder
led
Higher cost base
Less globally
competitive
Higher Value
Added to
Local
Communities
*moderate risk
Export potential
Small Scale
1. Sweet Sorghum – micro-distillery
2. Woodlot gasification elec.
Multi-product
or multi-crope.g. sweet sorghum
Economics
Uncertain
Complex-
Value Added to
Local
Communities
*high risk
Local Markets
Social Issues
Crop not well
characterised
Single
Bioenergy
Producte.g. multi-species
woodlot
Value Added
to Local
Communities
*high riskComplex food-
fuel-cash-crop
interactions
SOURCE: Woods, J. Foucs 14: IFPRI, 2006
0 200 400 600
Kilometres-
Legend
SLCR Areas
International Areas
National Areas (No Categories)
National Areas (IUCN Categorised)
Source: UKwZN 2007, South Africa
Land Suitability for Sugarcane Cultivation in SADC
Potential small, medium and large
scale areas (rain fed & irrigated)
suitable and available for sugarcane in
Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and
Zambia
Limited Potential for medium to large
scale and irrigated plantings in South
Africa and Zimbabwe
Limited Potential for any new
plantings in Mauritius
Cautious establishment at present of
new plantations by potential investors
in Angola and DRC
Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Total
Estimated suitable/available land (1000 ha) 206 2338 124 1178 3856
Estimated suitable/available land (%) 2.2 3.0 0.2 1.6 1.5
Ratio of maximum to current production 10 585 5 69 61
rapid growth of sweet sorghum (3-4 months)
Land suitability for sweet sorghum (using FAO data)
Country Total Land
(1000ha)
Suitable Share
Low – Inputs High - Inputs
Malawi 9408 11% 26%
Mozambique 78409 16% 28%
South Africa 121447 0% 1%
Tanzania 88359 4% 13%
Zambia 74339 8% 34%
Zimbabwe 38685 0% 3%
Market or environment?Trade or aid?
Local or global?Food, feed, or fuel?
Technology or behaviour?Efficiency or equity?Industry or society?Capital or labour?
North-South trade in biomass: conflict or synergy?
Land area per capita by type and major countries or regions
Source: FAOSTAT, 2008
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
China Brazil ASEAN EU27 India Other Asia SADC Sub-
Saharan
Africa
United
States of
America
WORLD
Are
a (
ha p
er
cap
ita)
Arable land and Permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Other land
Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials, theoretical biofuel demands
and production capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world regions
(Areas of circles depict approximate comparative scales)
FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCEEnergy output per unit of fossil fuel input
Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute, 2006.
ETHANOL BIODIESEL
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Sugar
Cane
Wheat Sugar
Beets
Corn Palm Oil Waste
vegetable
Oil
Soy Rape
Yield comparison: 1st Generation Biofuels
CropSeed yield
(t/ha)
Crop yield
(t/ha)
Biofuel
yield
(litre/ha)
Energy
yield
(GJ/ha)
Sugarcane
(juice)100 7500 157.5
Palm oil 9800 70 3000 105.0
Sweet
sorghum60 4200 88.2
Maize 7 2500 52.5
Jatropha 740 700 24.5
Soybean 480 500 17.5
Published by AAASJ. Fargione et al., Science 319, 1235 -1238 (2008)
Carbon debt, biofuel carbon debt allocation, annual carbon repayment rate, and years to repay biofuel carbon debt for nine scenarios of biofuel production
Estimated levels of land degradation by major region
No
ne
Lig
ht
Mo
derate
Sev
ere
Very
Sev
ere
Total
degradation:
Light-Very
Severe
Degradation:
Moderate –
Very Severe
Sub-Saharan
Africa
33 24 18 15 10 65 42
North Africa and
Near East
30 17 19 28 7 70 52
Asia and Pacific 28 12 32 22 7 72 61
North Asia east of
Urals
53 14 12 17 4 47 33
South and Central
America
23 27 23 22 5 77 50
Europe 9 21 22 36 12 90 70
North America 51 16 16 16 0 44 29
World 35 18 21 20 6 65 47
Source: UNEP, 1992
What is one buying when importing biofuels?
Or is it the Sun?
What is the preferred way to cut butter?
With a knife? Or with a chainsaw?
Is it technology?
CEEEZ Centre for
Energy, Environment and
Engineering Zambia Limited
International Partners
ENDA-TM
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Research Directorate-General
Thanks are extended to EC DG-Research and Sida-INEC
for financial support!
www.sei.se
www.carensa.net